
Irrational Exuberance
Description
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In this revised, updated, and expanded edition of his New York Times bestseller, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller, who warned of both the tech and housing bubbles, cautions that signs of irrational exuberance among investors have only increased since the 2008-9 financial crisis. With high stock and bond prices and the rising cost of housing, the post-subprime boom may well turn out to be another illustration of Shiller's influential argument that psychologically driven volatility is an inherent characteristic of all asset markets. In other words, Irrational Exuberance is as relevant as ever. Previous editions covered the stock and housing markets-and famously predicted their crashes. This edition expands its coverage to include the bond market, so that the book now addresses all of the major investment markets. It also includes updated data throughout, as well as Shiller's 2013 Nobel Prize lecture, which places the book in broader context. In addition to diagnosing the causes of asset bubbles, Irrational Exuberance recommends urgent policy changes to lessen their likelihood and severity-and suggests ways that individuals can decrease their risk before the next bubble bursts. No one whose future depends on a retirement account, a house, or other investments can afford not to read this book.
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Content
Preface to the Third Edition xi
Preface to the Second Edition, 2005 xix
Preface to the First Edition, 2000 xxv
Acknowledgments xxxi
1 The Stock Market in Historical Perspective 1
2 The Bond Market in Historical Perspective 11
3 The Real Estate Market in Historical Perspective 18
Part 1 Structural Factors
4 Precipitating Factors: The Internet, the Capitalist Explosion, and Other Events 39
5 Amplification Mechanisms: Naturally Occurring Ponzi Processes 70
Part 2 Cultural Factors
6 The News Media 101
7 New Era Economic Thinking 123
8 New Eras and Bubbles around the World 150
Part 3 Psychological Factors
9 Psychological Anchors for the Market 165
10 Herd Behavior and Epidemics 175
Part 4 Attempts to Rationalize Exuberance
11 Efficient Markets, Random Walks, and Bubbles 195
12 Investor Learning-and Unlearning 214
Part 5 A Call to Action
13 Speculative Volatility in a Free Society 225
Appendix Nobel Prize Lecture: Speculative Asset Prices 239
Notes 281
References 321
Index 339
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File format: ePUB
Copy protection: Watermark-DRM (Digital Rights Management)
System requirements:
- Computer (Windows; MacOS X; Linux): Use a reading software that can process the file format ePUB: e.g., Adobe Digital Editions or FBReader – both free (see eBook Help).
- Tablet/Smartphone (Android; iOS): Before downloading, install the free app Adobe Digital Editions (see eBook Help).
- E-reader: Bookeen, Kobo, Pocketbook, Sony, Tolino and many more (not Kindle).
The file format ePUB works well for novels and non-fiction books – i.e., „flowing” text without complex layout. On an e-reader or smartphone, line and page breaks automatically adjust to fit the small displays.
This eBook uses Watermark-DRM, a „soft” copy protection. This means that there are no technical restrictions to prevent illegal distribution. However, there is a personalised watermark embedded in the eBook that can be used to identify the purchaser of the eBook in the event of misuse and to provide evidence for legal purposes.
For more information, see our eBook Help page.