Natural Hazard Uncertainty Assessment

Contributors vii

1 Uncertainty in Natural Hazards, Modeling and Decision Support: An Introduction to This Volume 1 Karin Riley, Matthew Thompson, Peter Webley, and Kevin D Hyde

Part I: Uncertainty, Communication, and Decision Support 9

2 Natural Hazard Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis 11 Matthew Thompson and Jord J Warmink 3 Understanding Uncertainty as a Key Interdisciplinary Problem in Earth System Science 21 Florian Rauser and Gernot Geppert 4 Uncertainty and Probability in Wildfire Management Decision Support: An Example from the United States 31 Matthew Thompson, David Calkin, Joe H Scott, and Michael Hand

5 Role of Uncertainty in Decision Support for Volcanic Ash Cloud Modeling 43 Peter Webley

Part II: Geological Hazards 57

6 Building an Uncertainty Modeling Framework for Real?-Time VATD 59 Peter Webley, Abani Patra, Marcus Bursik, E Bruce Pitman, Jonathan Dehn, Tarung Singh, Puneet Singla, Matthew D Jones, Reza Madankan, E Ramona Stefanescu, and Solene Pouget

7 Uncertainties in Estimating Magma Source Parameters from InSAR Observation 89 Wenyu Gong, Zhong Lu, and Franz Meyer

8 Improving Model Simulations of Volcanic Emission Clouds and Assessing Model Uncertainties 105 Nina Iren Kristiansen, Delia Arnold, Christian Maurer, Julius Vira, Razvan Rädulescu, Damien Martin, ndreas Stohl, Kerstin Stebel, Mikhail Sofiev, Colin O'Dowd, and Gerhard Wotawa

9 Uncertainty Assessment of Pyroclastic Density Currents at Mount Vesuvius (Italy) Simulated Through the Energy Cone Model 125 Pablo Tierz, Laura Sandri, Antonio Costa, Roberto Sulpizio, Lucia Zaccarelli, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, and Warner Marzocchi

10 Earthquake Loss Estimation in the Gyeongju Area, Southeastern Korea, Using a Site Classification Map 147 Su Young Kang and Kwang?-Hee Kim

11 Implications of Different Digital Elevation Models and Preprocessing Techniques to Delineate Debris Flow Inundation Hazard Zones in El Salvador 167 Eric Ross Anderson, Robert E Griffin, and Daniel E Irwin

12 Evaluating the Performance of FLO2D for Simulating Past Lahar Events at the Most Active Mexican Volcanoes: Popocatépetl and Volcán de Colima 179 Lizeth Caballero, Lucia Capra, and Rosario Vázquez

Part III: Biophysical and Climatic Hazards 191

13 An Uncertainty Analysis of Wildfire Modeling 193 Karin Riley and Matthew Thompson

14 Fire and Smoke Remote Sensing and Modeling Uncertainties: Case Studies in Northern Sub?]Saharan Africa 215 Charles Ichoku, Luke T Ellison, Yun Yue, Jun Wang, and Johannes W Kaiser

15 Uncertainty and Complexity Tradeoffs When Integrating Fire Spread with Hydroecological Projections 231 Maureen C Kennedy and Donald McKenzie

16 Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation for Projections of Extremes in Monthly Area Burned Under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Coastal Plain of Georgia, USA 245 Adam J Terando, Brian Reich, Krishna Pacifici, Jennifer Costanza, Alexa McKerrow, and Jaime A Collazo

17 Simulating Vegetation Change, Carbon Cycling, and Fire Over the Western United States Using CMIP5 Climate Projections 257 D Bachelet, T Sheehan, K Ferschweiler, and J Abatzoglou

18 Sensitivity of Vegetation Fires to Climate, Vegetation, and Anthropogenic Drivers in the HESFIRE Model: Consequences for Fire Modeling and Projection Uncertainties 277 Yannick Le Page

19 Uncertainties in Predicting Debris Flow Hazards Following Wildfire 287 Kevin D Hyde, Karin Riley, and Cathelijne Stoof

20 Capturing Spatiotemporal Variation in Wildfires for Improving Postwildfire Debris?-Flow Hazard Assessments 301 Jessica R Haas, Matthew Thompson, Anne Tillery, and Joe H Scott

21 Uncertainty in Estimation of Debris?-Flow Triggering Rainfall: Evaluation and Impact on Identification of Threshold Relationships 319 E I Nikolopoulos, F Marra, and M Borga

22 Prospects in Landslide Prediction: Confronting the Challenges of Precipitation Uncertainty 329 Natasha Markuzon, Catherine Slesnick, Erin Leidy, John Regan, Xiang Gao, and Adam Schlosser

Index 337