Bounded Rational Choice Behaviour
Applications in Transport
Published on 30. January 2015
288 pages
978-1-78441-071-1 (ISBN)
Description
This book brings together frontier research in transportation and travel behaviour on the formulation and estimation of models of bounded rationality to analyse and predict various facets underlying daily activity-travel behaviour. Key behavioural principles and mechanisms relate to simplifying decision complexity by ignoring particular attributes, developing context and task-dependent mental representations, deriving decision heuristics, adding emotional aspects to cognitive assessments of choice options, regret-minimization, semi-compensatory decision rules based on mental effort and risk perception, learning and adaptation, satisfying decision rules and prospect theoretic approaches. The book is important reading for transportation researchers and professionals who are interested in the latest developments in transport demand forecasting. It offers historical reviews of the development of models of bounded rationality in this field of research, and a variety of new concepts and modelling approaches that should be inspirational to both new and experienced researchers in this field of research and application.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Bingley
United Kingdom
Target group
Professional and scholarly
File size
2,46 MB
ISBN-13
978-1-78441-071-1 (9781784410711)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
01/2015
Emerald Group Publishing Limited
€203.20
Shipment within 10-20 days
Content
- Front Cover
- Bounded Rational Choice Behaviour: Applications in Transport
- Copyright page
- Contents
- List of Contributors
- Preface
- Frontiers in Modelling Bounded Rationality in Travel Behaviour Research: Introduction to the Collection of Chapters
- References
- Chapter 1 Models of Bounded Rationality under Certainty
- 1.1 Framework
- 1.2 Non-Optimal Decision Mechanisms
- 1.3 Considering a Subset of Influential Attributes
- 1.4 Indifference between Small Differences in Utility or Attribute Values
- 1.5 Considering a Subset of Choice Alternatives
- 1.6 Applications
- 1.7 Conclusions and Discussion
- References
- Chapter 2 Utility Maximisation and Regret Minimisation: A Mixture of a Generalisation
- 2.1 Introduction
- 2.2 Model Structures
- 2.2.1 The Generalised RRM Model
- 2.2.2 Mixture Model
- 2.3 Empirical Analysis
- 2.3.1 Data
- 2.3.2 Results
- 2.4 Summary and Conclusions
- References
- Chapter 3 Relative Utility Modelling
- 3.1 Introduction
- 3.2 Relative Utility Modelling
- 3.2.1 General Formulation
- 3.2.2 Alternative-Oriented Relative Utility
- 3.2.3 Representing Quasi-Nested Choice Structure
- 3.2.4 Endogenous Modelling of Choice Set Generation
- 3.2.5 Reflecting the Non-linearity of Context Dependency
- 3.3 Major Findings of Existing Studies
- 3.3.1 Choices of Destinations and Stop Patterns
- 3.3.2 Dynamic Travel Mode Choice
- 3.3.3 Travel Information and Travel Behaviour
- 3.3.4 Choices of Packaged Tours
- 3.3.5 Choice Set Generation
- 3.4 Further Improvements
- 3.4.1 Modelling Improvements
- 3.4.2 Model Estimation
- 3.5 Conclusion
- References
- Chapter 4 The Influence of Varying Information Load on Inferred Attribute Non-Attendance
- 4.1 Introduction
- 4.2 Methodology
- 4.3 Data and Model Specifications
- 4.4 Results
- 4.5 Discussion
- References
- Chapter 5 The Heterogeneous Heuristic Modeling Framework for Inferring Decision Processes
- 5.1 Motivation
- 5.2 Modeling Framework
- 5.2.1 Satisficing Decision
- 5.2.1.1 Preference structure
- 5.2.1.2 Deriving decision heuristics
- 5.2.1.3 Choice of heuristics
- 5.2.1.4 Mental effort
- 5.2.1.5 Risk perception
- 5.2.1.6 Expected outcome
- 5.2.2 Extension to Comparative Decision
- 5.3 Applications
- 5.3.1 The Go-Home Decision
- 5.3.1.1 Model specification
- 5.3.1.2 Results
- 5.3.2 The Direction Choice Decision
- 5.3.2.1 Model specification
- 5.3.2.2 Results
- 5.4 Conclusion and Future Work
- References
- Chapter 6 Investigating Situational Differences in Individuals' Mental Representations of Activity-Travel Decisions: Progress and Empirical Illustration for the Impact of Online Alternatives
- 6.1 Introduction
- 6.2 Mental Representations of Complex Decision Problems
- 6.2.1 Theory and Concepts
- 6.2.2 Measuring Mental Representations
- 6.3 Case Study
- 6.3.1 Choice Task and Experimental Design
- 6.3.2 Data Collection and Sample
- 6.3.3 Analysis
- 6.3.3.1 The complexity of respondents' mental representations
- Number of recalled considerations
- Number of attributes and number of benefits
- Benefits per attribute
- Number of cognitive subsets
- Conclusions on the complexity of respondents' MRs
- 6.3.3.2 The content of respondents' mental representations
- Ranking of decision variables
- The frequency of elicited attributes
- The frequency of elicited benefits
- The frequency of elicited cognitive subsets
- Centrality of variables
- 6.3.4 Conclusion
- 6.4 Conclusions and Discussion
- References
- Chapter 7 Towards a Novel Classifier for the Representation of Bounded Rationality in Models of Travel Demand
- 7.1 Introduction to Decision Theory
- 7.2 Decision Theory in Activity-Based Models
- 7.2.1 Introduction
- 7.2.2 Decision Theory in AB Models
- 7.3 Bayesian Networks
- 7.3.1 General Concepts
- 7.3.2 Parameter Learning
- 7.3.3 Entering Evidences
- 7.3.4 Structural Learning
- 7.4 Bayesian Network Classifiers: Problem Formulation
- 7.5 Towards A New Integrated Classifier
- 7.6 Data and Design of the Experiments
- 7.6.1 Data
- 7.6.2 Design of the Experiments
- 7.7 Results
- 7.7.1 Model Comparison: Accuracy Results
- 7.7.2 Model Comparison in Terms of Model and Individual Rule Complexity
- 7.7.3 Activity Pattern Level Analysis
- 7.7.4 Trip Matrix Level Analysis
- 7.8 Conclusion and Discussion of the Results
- References
- Chapter 8 Bounded Rationality in Dynamic Traffic Assignment
- 8.1 Introduction
- 8.2 Dynamic Traffic Assignment
- 8.2.1 Problem Definition
- 8.2.2 Example
- 8.2.3 Travel Flow Component
- 8.2.4 Wardrop's First Principle and its Dynamic Extensions
- 8.3 Bounded Rationality in Traffic Assignment
- 8.4 Boundedly Rational Dynamic User Equilibrium Route Choice Assignment
- 8.4.1 Tolerance-Based Dynamic User Optimal Principle
- 8.4.2 Nonlinear Complementarity Problem (NCP) Formulation
- 8.4.3 Solution Existence and Uniqueness
- 8.4.4 Solution Method
- 8.5 Boundedly Rational Dynamic user Equilibrium Route and Departure Time Choice Assignment
- 8.6 Concluding Remarks
- Acknowledgements
- References
- Chapter 9 Incorporating Bounded Rationality in a Model of Endogenous Dynamics of Activity-Travel Behaviour
- 9.1 Introduction
- 9.2 The Model
- 9.2.1 Activity Profiles and Universal Choice Set
- 9.2.2 Decision-Making Process
- 9.2.2.1 Cognitive responses
- 9.2.2.2 Emotional responses
- 9.2.2.3 Choice set formation
- 9.2.2.4 Aspirations and stress
- 9.2.2.5 Habit formation
- 9.2.2.6 Short-term dynamics
- Exploitation choice mode
- Exploration choice mode
- 9.2.2.7 Long-term dynamics
- Lowering aspirations
- Becoming 'awake'
- 9.2.3 Updating Phase
- 9.3 Numerical Simulations
- 9.3.1 Simulation Settings
- 9.3.2 Basic Case Results
- 9.3.3 Effect of Memory-Activation Parameters
- 9.3.3.1 Effect of ?2 parameter
- 9.3.3.2 Effect of ? parameter
- 9.3.4 Effect of Emotion-Related Parameters
- 9.3.4.1 Effect of a2 parameter
- 9.3.4.2 Effect of a1 parameter
- 9.4 Conclusions and Discussion
- References
- Chapter 10 Multidimensional Travel Decision-Making: Descriptive Behavioural Theory and Agent-Based Models
- 10.1 Background
- 10.2 Theory and Models
- 10.2.1 Modelling Imperfect Knowledge
- 10.2.2 Modelling Multidimensional Search
- 10.2.3 Search Rules and Decision Rules
- 10.2.4 Empirical Data Collection
- 10.3 Simulation Results
- 10.4 Discussion and Conclusion
- References
- Chapter 11 Prospect Theory and its Applications to the Modelling of Travel Choice
- 11.1 Introduction
- 11.2 Making Travel Choices under Risk: The Assumptions of Expected Utility Theory (EUT) and Prospect Theory (PT)
- 11.3 Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT)
- 11.4 Numeric Example
- 11.5 Incorporating Prospect Theory in Travel Choice Modelling - Application Areas and Evidence
- 11.6 Prospect Theory and Behavioural Change
- 11.7 Shortcomings and Limitations of Prospect Theory in Modelling Travel Behaviour
- 11.8 Summary and Conclusions
- References
- About the Authors
- Index
