How to Predict the Unpredictable
The Art of Outsmarting Almost Everybody
1st Edition
Published on 4. September 2014
304 pages
978-1-78074-408-7 (ISBN)
Description
We are hard-wired to believe that the world is more predictable than it is. We chase 'winning streaks' that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be.
In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase 'representativeness' to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You'll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase 'representativeness' to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You'll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.
Reviews / Votes
'Vivid [and] fascinating' * Guardian * '[Poundstone's] underlying argument is both valid and vital. As he notes in his prologue, "the most important outguessing machine is the one known as Big Data". Shannon's mind-reading technology has become unavoidable and ubiquitous' * New Scientist * 'Poundstone calls on a fascinating array of examples to demonstrate his point. But be warned: these insights may not help much longer now that Poundstone has blabbed them. So read it quick' (5/5 Stars) * BBC Focus * 'Poundstone is a smart thinker, a deft writer and a spinner of engaging tales... enjoyable and original' -- Tim Harford 'Highly entertaining... brilliant' * E&T magazine * 'Ingenious... a delightful addition to the everything-you-thought-you-knew-is-wrong genre.' * Kirkus Reviews * 'Intriguing and immensely useful.' * Publishers Weekly * 'Fascinating... it's all gold-dust... this could save you real money' * The Bookbag *More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Oxford
United Kingdom
File size
1,89 MB
ISBN-13
978-1-78074-408-7 (9781780744087)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
09/2014
Oneworld Publications
€36.08
Article not available at the moment
Person
William Poundstone is the author of fourteen books, including the international bestseller Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? He lives in Los Angeles.
Content
- Intro
- Title
- Copyright
- Contents
- Prologue
- Part One: The Randomness Experiment
- 1 The Zenith Broadcast
- 2 How to Outguess Rock, Paper, Scissors
- 3 How to Outguess Multiple- Choice Tests
- 4 How to Outguess the Lottery
- 5 How to Outguess Tennis Serves
- 6 How to Outguess Football Penalty Kicks
- 7 How to Outguess Card Games
- 8 How to Outguess Passwords
- 9 How to Outguess Crowd- Sourced Ratings
- 10 How to Outguess Fake Numbers
- 11 How to Outguess Manipulated Numbers
- 12 How to Outguess Ponzi Schemes
- Part Two: The Hot Hand Theory
- 13 In the Zone
- 14 How to Outguess Football Bets
- 15 How to Outguess Oscar Pools
- 16 How to Outguess Big Data
- 17 How to Outguess Retail Prices
- 18 How to Outguess Property Prices
- 19 How to Outguess the Unpredictable
- 20 How to Outguess the Stock Market
- Epilogue: Fortune's Wheel
- Acknowledgments
- Notes
- Bibliography
- Index
