Working with the Future
Ideas and Tools to Govern Uncertainty
Published on 31. October 2019
127 pages
978-88-85486-91-1 (ISBN)
Description
Poli's book isTheoretically robustProvides a description of some of the major methods in the fieldDescribes some major applications (army and government, schools)Shows quite a few cases of re-framingSuggests connections with present frontiers of scientific researchA systematic, engaging introduction to futures studies, that any well-educated person will be able to followProvides a framework for understanding the complexity and the uncertainty of the present situationThe book distinguishes correct from wrong ways to understand the future.
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10/2019
Bocconi University Press
€34.90
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Content
- Intro
- Frontespizio
- Copyright
- Indice
- Introduction
- Acknowledgements
- 1. Forecasting, Foresight, Anticipation
- The future is something else
- Structural crises, contingent logics
- The three components of futures studies
- 2. Megatrends and Explorations
- Megatrend
- Explorations
- Anticipation
- 3. Risk and Uncertainty
- Black swans and wild cards
- Sensitivity to surprises
- New risk profiles
- One step back
- From probability to consequences
- Anticipatory risk management
- Anticipation
- 4. Complicated and Complex
- One subtle difference
- actually, three
- Clues of complexity
- Social systemss
- Reductionism and non-reductionism
- About houses and cats
- Functional reproduction
- General systems
- The four meanings of anticipation
- 5. Working with the Future
- The phases of a future exercise
- Setup
- Documentation
- Visualization
- Action
- 6. Future Methods and Exercises
- Examples of previous classifications
- Selection and organization criteria
- Evaluation of future competencies
- Conclusion
- 7. Collective Intelligence and Military Tactics
- Anticipatory governance
- Why is anticipatory governance necessary?
- Auftragstaktik
- Auftragstaktik and anticipatory governance
- Auftragstaktik and the civilian world
- 8. The Ability to Aspire
- Educational challenges
- Orientation to the future
- The future as opening new possibilities
- Thin and thick present
- The Fut-Lab experience
- 9. Fragments of Anticipation
- Evidence-based policy
- Value creation and innovation
- Pragmatic utopia
- 10. The Skills of the Futurists
- Understanding different aspiration capacities
- Cognitive illusions
- About daydreams
- Futures literacy
- Three basic principles
- Post scriptum
- Learn more: a guide to (the study of) the future
- Introductions
- Classics
- Relevant texts
- Methods
- Miscellanea
- Journals
- Other resources
- Associationss
- Companies/study centres
- Bibliography
