
What the Numbers Say
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Content
- Intro
- Title Page
- Table of Contents
- Dedication
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1
- Chapter 2
- Attitude Is Everything
- Navigational Tools
- Illuminating Numbers
- Uncertainty
- Estimation
- Chapter 3
- Units 101
- What Is an Acre?
- Conversions: Putting Units Together
- Taking the Measure of Measurement
- One Size Fits All?
- Bias and Precision
- Beware of Strangers Bearing Zeros
- Chapter 4
- The Linearity Trap
- The Trap of Negative Returns
- Percents of Percents
- When Percentages Aren't the Answer
- The 0-to-100 Trap
- You Can't Get There from Here
- Percentages, Policy, and Pareto
- Epilogue
- Chapter 5
- Orders of Magnitude and the Principle of Proximity
- Numbers on a National Scale
- Pareto's Law and Political Symbolism
- The Trouble with Small Numbers
- How Small Things Become Big
- Sensitive Numbers
- Survivorship Bias
- The Tactics of Big Numbers
- Chapter 6
- Modeling Through Hidden Curves
- At the Margin
- Square Curves
- Exponential Growth
- The Rule of 72
- Exponential Decay
- Curvature in Policy: Progressive Taxation
- The Curvature of the Flat Tax
- Ponzi Schemes, Savings and Loans, and Social Security
- Chapter 7
- What Is Probability?
- The Frequentist School
- Subjective Probability
- Expressing Probabilities
- The Arithmetic of Probabilities
- Second-Guessing Yourself
- Bayes Watch
- Babylonian Oddsmaking
- Probability Distributions
- Chapter 8
- The Power of Randomness
- Back to Normal
- Correlation and Causation
- Testing the Hypothesis
- Sample Sizes
- Data Mining
- Survey Research
- Deviations from the Mean
- Chapter 9
- The Math Wars
- Math versus Quantitative Reasoning
- The Role of Mathematics Education
- Less Is More
- Relieving the Tedium
- The Mixed Blessing of Calculators
- The Glass Is Half Full
- The Glass Is Half Empty
- The Role of Government
- Endnotes
- Notes
- About The Author
- Copyright Page
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