The Economy as an Oscillating System
Lessons Learned - Insights - Forecasts
1st Edition
Published on 8. July 2019
200 pages
978-1-56990-779-5 (ISBN)
Description
Is it possible to forecast economic crises?
Economic researchers have been grappling with this topic for generations. The outcome of all their efforts is a large number of to some extent contradictory theories. Regarding the economy as a living - pulsating - system, which organises itself and is in constant interaction with its environment, provides extensive insights and forms the basis for this book.
The author Peter Meier presents a system that enables demand for capital goods to be forecast quite reliably up to eighteen months into the future, based on global economic indicators. In addition, the author establishes ten assumptions for economic forecasting that can be checked periodically. They can be used to gauge the approximate timing of an impending global economic crisis by more than a year in advance.
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Content
- Intro
- Content
- Preface
- Introduction
- 1 Business Cycle Patterns
- 1.1 Gross Fixed Investment
- 1.2 Machine Tool Manufacturing
- 1.2.1 Industry Business Cycle Patterns
- 1.2.2 Corporate Business Cycle Patterns
- 1.3 Textile Machinery Manufacturing
- 1.4 Machinery Manufacturing and Several Sub-Sectors
- 1.5 Business Cycle Indicators
- 1.6 Reading Business Cycle Patterns
- 2 Structure
- 2.1 A digression on the subject of trend identification
- 2.2 The beginnings of industrialisation
- 2.3 From an industrial to a service economy
- 2.3.1 Per capita gross fixed investment
- 2.3.2 Employment in the industrial sector
- 2.3.3 Machine tool consumption
- 2.4 From service to information economy
- 2.5 Structural changes harbour risks and create opportunities
- 2.6 Identifying structural changes in good time
- 3 Process
- 3.1 Business cycle fluctuations escalate and propagate
- 3.1.1 Bullwhip effect
- 3.1.2 Hype cycle
- 3.1.3 Speculation
- 3.1.4 The multiplier and economic policy
- 3.1.5 Accelerator
- 3.1.6 Extended accelerator principle
- 3.1.7 Business cycle fluctuations are unavoidable
- 3.2 Consumption and investment - a non-linear relationship
- 3.2.1 Consumption-Investment Model
- 3.2.2 Trend breaks generate shocks
- 3.2.3 Shocks generate fluctuations
- 3.2.4 Saturation shock
- 3.2.5 Capital goods demand and installed capacity
- 3.2.6 Bubble shock
- 3.2.7 Shocks reduce employment
- 3.2.8 Shocks are reproduced right round the globe
- 3.2.9 What triggers a shock?
- 3.2.10 Shocks and technological changes
- 3.3 Propagation characteristics of business cycle fluctuations
- 4 A Finger on the Economic Pulse
- 4.1 Time Lags
- 4.1.1 Linear time lags
- 4.1.2 Non-linear time lags
- 4.2 Consumption and industry cycles
- 5 Forecasts
- 5.1 Data Pool
- 5.2 Forecasting Model
- 5.2.1 Industry Forecasts
- 5.2.2 Corporate Forecasts
- 5.3 When will the next crisis occur?
- 5.4 Impact on industries or companies
- 5.5 About the accuracy of economic forecasts
- 5.6 The ten premises on which the forecasting model is based
- Bibliography
