
The John Mauldin Classics Collection
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Content
- Intro
- Contents
- Title
- Foreword
- Bull's Eye Investing
- Contents
- Title
- Dedication
- Copyright
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction
- Chapter 1: Car Wreck, Traffic Jam, or Freeway?
- Secular Bear Markets
- Rules of Engagement
- Jumping Ahead
- Positively, Absolutely Relative
- The Correlations Change
- It's All about Assumptions
- Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics
- Mean Lean Reversion Machine
- The Missing Link: Investor Sentiment
- Don't Worry! Be Happy!
- The Real Link between Age and the Markets
- The Predictability of Randomness
- Sideways to Down for 20 Years?
- Chapter 2: Faith versus History
- Secular Bear Markets
- Blind Dogs and Janus Managers
- Phony Analysis
- Are We at the Bottom?
- Faith versus History
- Chapter 3: The Trend Is Your Friend (Until It Isn't)
- Investing by Committee
- Take a Risk, You Get Fired
- Bull versus Bear, Siegel versus Grantham
- Cooking the Data Books
- How to Spot a Market Cheerleader
- What Will the Stock Market Return over 10 Years?
- Chapter 4: Catching the Next Wave
- Stock Market Cycles
- Understanding Stock Market Behavior
- Growing Pains
- Expansions and Expectations
- Long Waves Explained (Finally)
- Something New This Way Comes!
- Chapter 5: Into the Matrix: History's Guide to Realistic Expectations
- Secular Bear Markets by the Numbers
- The 20-Year Horizon
- The Volatility Gremlins
- The Investment Matrix: The Real Truth about Stock Market Returns
- The Investment Matrix Revelations
- When Can We Make Long-Term Money in Stocks Again?
- Death and Taxes
- What Are Expected Stock Returns for Next 20 Years?
- Slip-Sliding Away
- Sequences over Time: Cycles
- They Almost Got It Right
- It's Not the (Stupid) Economy
- The Opportunity for Current Graduates
- Chapter 6: Financial Physics: Interconnected Relationships
- A + B = C: It's All Connected
- Predicting Earnings
- Applying Financial Physics
- What Does It Mean?
- Chapter 7: Risky Expectations
- Risk Premiums
- Predicting a 50 Percent Drop
- "Hopeful" Outcomes
- Chapter 8: Plausible Expectations: A Realistic Appraisal of the Prospects for Earnings Growth
- The Glass Ceiling
- Earnings Deflation
- April Fools Investing
- How Hidden Options Expenses Will Actually Affect Earnings
- Earnings before Interest and Hype
- How Far Away Is the Bottom?
- NASDAQ Prediction
- Pension Fund Woes
- The Wendy Gramm Factor
- Plausible Expectations and Irrational Exuberance
- The 2 Percent Dilution Factor
- Nash-Kelvinator, Studebaker, and Other U.S. Giants
- Summing Up Our Learning about Earnings
- The Earnings Road Just Got Steeper
- Chapter 9: Pension Fund Problems in Your Backyard
- Nightmare on Pension Fund Street
- Can It Get Worse?
- Chapter 10: The Issue of Retirement in an Aging World: Is It Something in the Water?
- Is Retirement in Your Future?
- Fantasy Island
- Supply and Demand Is the Main Culprit
- Health Care Pressures
- Take an Aspirin and Call Me in the Morning
- Who Really Owns GM and Ford?
- What Happens If You Don't Compound at 10 Percent over the Next 10 Years?
- What Could Make a Difference?
- Social Security Solutions?
- Be Honest with Yourself
- How to Lose 20 Percent in Five Years-Guaranteed
- Chapter 11: Demography Is Destiny
- Age Vulnerability: Your Pension or Your Life
- Demography Is Destiny
- Chapter 12: King Dollar and the Guillotine
- The Kindness of Strangers
- The Artificial Dollar
- Why the Dollar Rose
- The Competitive Devaluation Raceway
- The Law of One Price
- An Uncomfortable Adjustment
- The Artificial Dollar and Deflation
- Can You Focus the Picture, Please?
- Chapter 13: The Muddle Through Economy
- Déjà Vu All Over Again
- The Good News
- The Unsustainable Trend-The Trade Deficit
- The U.S. Government Deficit
- The Demographic Conundrum
- The Jobless Recovery, Productivity, and the International Labor Arbitrage
- The Steroid Economy
- The Unsustainable Trend, Part Two
- Bulls to the Left of Me, Bears to the Right of Me, Here I Am Stuck in the Muddle Through Middle with You
- Chapter 14: Chairman Greenspan and the Shoot-Out at the OK Corral
- The Famous Fed Printing Press Speech
- A Very Clear Fed Speech
- Stimulating Demand
- The Greenspan Uncertainty Principle
- Monetary Policy under Uncertainty
- Real-World Central Banking
- Greenspan Says, "Trust Me"
- The End Game
- Chapter 15: Why Investors Fail: Analyzing Risk
- Investors Behaving Badly
- Analyze This: Analysts Are Useless
- Tails You Lose, Heads I Win
- Ergodicity
- Why Investors Fail
- I've Got a Secret System
- When Will the Next Bull (or Bear) Market Run Begin?
- Analyzing a Fund
- Becoming a Top 20 Percent Investor
- Investors Behaving Badly
- Chapter 16: Taking Stock: The Fundamental Nature of Bull's Eye Investing
- The Home Field Advantage
- Home Field Bias
- Familiarity Breeds (Over)Confidence
- Evidence for Investor Overreaction
- Stock Prices Are in Our Heads, Or Maybe Investors Are Just Head Cases
- The French/Fama Connection
- Value Is Where You Find It
- Chapter 17: Bringing Out Your Inner Spock
- A Litany of Mistakes
- What a Tangled Web We Weave, When First We Practice to Deceive
- The Problem with Assumptions
- Addicted to Growth
- Chapter 18: The Value in Stocks
- Value, Value, Value
- The Small Investor Advantage
- Get Some Help
- A Few Ground Rules for Bull's Eye Investing in Stocks
- Too Much Work and Not Enough Time
- Where Are the Funds?
- Suffering Along with Warren
- Investing in Stocks for Income
- Trading Away
- Chapter 19: Investing in Bonds: Or the Sisyphus Syndrome
- Chapter 20: Hedge Funds 101: The Basics
- The Technical Beginning
- The Jones Model-The Birth of Hedge Funds
- Plus Ça Change, Plus C'est le Même Chose
- Legal Structure and Restrictions
- Business Model
- Management Fees
- Investment Minimums
- The Most Important Factor
- Hedge Funds: Strategies and Returns
- The Index Dilemma
- Hedge Fund Strategies
- Convertible Arbitrage
- Fixed Income Arbitrage Funds
- Long/Short Equity Funds
- Event-Driven Funds
- Fund of Hedge Funds
- A Modest Proposal
- The Hedge Fund Investment Company
- Finding Hedge Funds
- Hedge Fund Indexes and the Investment Process
- Chapter 21: Investing in a Fund of Hedge Funds
- Access
- Liquidity
- Diversification, Risk, and Returns
- Taking Charge or Along for the Ride?
- Choosing a Fund of Funds Manager
- Rydex SPhinX
- A Few More Facts
- A Few Thoughts on the Risk in a Fund of Funds
- Chapter 22: Doing Your Due Diligence
- The Due Diligence Process
- Chapter 23: All That Glitters, Etc.
- Taking Stock of Gold
- Your Basic Commodities
- So Why Even Write about It?
- What Are Global Macro Funds?
- Volatility, Volatility, Everything Is Volatility
- Risks and More Risks
- How Do You Choose a Fund?
- Getting Real
- A Few Thoughts on Starting a New Business
- Chapter 24: Bull's Eye Investing
- The Nature of Change
- Appendix A: Suggested Reading Material
- Appendix B: Bond Information
- Appendix C: Hedge Fund Industry Resources
- Appendix D: Hedge Fund Net Worth Requirements: Why a Million Isn't Always Enough
- Bibliography
- About the Author
- Index
- Insert
- Just One Thing
- Contents
- Title
- Copyright
- Introduction
- Chapter 1: Signposts in the Fog
- Investing in The Fog
- You Can't Make Money Standing in the Sunshine
- The Importance of Spotting the Signposts in the Fog
- Picking the Right Signposts
- A Glance Back at Satisfaction and Rewards
- Chapter 2: The "Not-So-Simple" (But Really Utterly So) Rules of Trading
- Never Add to a Losing Position
- Invest on the Side that is Winning
- Don't Hold on to Losing Positions
- Go Where the Strength is
- Making "Logical" Plays is Costly
- Think Like a Fundamentalist
- Trade Like a Technician
- Understand the Environment
- The Rule that Sums Up the Rest
- Chapter 3: The Triumph of Hope over Long-Run Experience: Using Past Returns to Predict Future Performance of a Money Manager
- Identifying Noise in Market Decision Making
- Dealing with the Noise Problem
- Performance Studies
- Reasons Past Performance Fails as an Investing Tool
- Why Do Investors Rely on Past Performance?
- How Should You Use Performance Data?
- Chapter 4: The Long Bond
- Investments Must Make Money
- Be Nonconsensus and Long-Term
- The Late 1970s
- Monetary or Fiscal Policy?
- Distrust in Government
- My Fearless Forecast
- No Straight Line
- Real Money
- The Long (Unlaunched) Bond
- Hang in There
- Consistency is Important
- Why Buck the Trend?
- Risk and Maturity
- The Complexity of Stocks
- Cocktail Party Prattle
- The Pros Don't Like Bonds
- The Test of History
- Where do Bonds Go From Here?
- Chapter 5: Risk is Not a Knob
- Risky Business
- Modern Portfolio Misunderstandings
- Risk Misconceptions
- Expected Returns and Probable Returns
- Measuring Risk
- Absolute Probabilities
- Short-Term and Long-Term
- Volatility Gremlins
- Portfolio Management
- Front Stage: Your Assumptions
- In Conclusion: Caveat Investor
- Chapter 6: Psychology Matters: An Investors' Guide to Thinking about Thinking
- Are You Spock or McCoy?
- The Primacy of Emotion
- Emotions: Body or Brain?
- Emotion: Good, Bad, or Both?
- Self-Control is Like a Muscle
- Plasticity as Salvation
- The Biases We Face
- Conclusions
- Chapter 7: The Means are the Ends
- Keynesian Meddling in the Twentieth Century
- Morality as an Economic Tool
- Chapter 8: The 2 Percent Solution
- Assessing the Strength of Capitalization-Weighted Investing
- Investing in Equal-Weighted Indexes: A Better Alternative
- Getting the 2 Percent of Alpha
- Conclusion
- Chapter 9: The Outsider Trading Scandal
- The Value of Information
- The Dearth of Inside Information
- The Fallacy of Imbalance Fears
- The Investor's Challenge
- Chapter 10: The Winner's Rule
- That One Most Important Thing
- Becoming an Invaluable Employee
- Being an Effective Mentor
- Nice Guys Finish Best
- Chapter 11: Rich Man, Poor Man
- The Power of Compounding
- The Trick is to Beat Time
- In the Markets, Hope is the Dangerous Siren Song
- There is No Substitute for Action
- Chapter 12: The Millennium Wave
- The Innovation Cycle
- Secular Bull and Secular Bear Markets
- Human Psychology
- Surfing the Millennium Wave
- Demography is Destiny
- The Globalization Wave
- A New World Order
- What this Means for Investors
- Index
- Endgame
- Contents
- Title
- Copyright
- Dedication
- Acknowledgments
- Introduction : Endgame
- Part One : The End of the Debt Supercycle
- Chapter 1 : The Beginning of the End
- How Did the Debt Supercycle Come About?
- Private Deleveraging and Public Leveraging Up
- Chapter 2 : Why Greece Matters
- What Does Greece Mean to Me, Dad?
- Chapter 3 : Let's Look at the Rules
- Six Impossible Things
- Delta Force
- Killing the Goose
- But It's More Than the Deficit
- Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus
- Pity the Greeks
- The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway
- Final Thoughts . . .
- Chapter 4 : The Burden of Lower Growth and More Frequent Recessions
- Three Structural Changes
- Lower Growth, Fewer Jobs, Bigger Deficits, Lower Returns
- Chapter 5 : This Time Is Different
- A Crisis of Confidence
- It's the Deleveraging, Stupid!
- Some Parting Words from Rogoff and Reinhart
- Chapter 6 : The Future of Public Debt
- A Bit of Background
- Drastic Measures
- The Future Public Debt Trajectory
- Debt Projections
- The Challenge for Central Banks
- Bang, Indeed!
- The Center Cannot Hold
- Who Takes the Loss?
- Chapter 7 : The Elements of Deflation
- The Supertrend Puzzle
- The Elements of Deflation: What Deflation Looks Like
- The Velocity of Money
- A Slowdown in Velocity
- The Roadmap Ahead: Bernanke's Helicopter Speech
- There Are No Good Choices
- Chapter 8 : Inflation and Hyperinflation
- A Dose of Inflation
- The Characteristics of Hyperinflations
- The Dangers of Inflation
- The Problems of Inflation
- Hyperinflation in the United States?
- Part Two : A World Tour: Who Will Face Endgame First?
- Chapter 9 : The United States
- Yes, We're Screwed
- Congress: Blind, Ignorant, and Indifferent
- What Does It All Mean?
- The Kindness of Strangers
- Endgame for the United States
- The Present Contains All Possible Futures
- Some Policy Suggestions
- Chapter 10 : The European Periphery
- The Euro: A Suboptimal Currency Union
- Some Countries Recover
- Others Don't
- Chapter 11 : Eastern European Problems
- Hungary: Damned if They Do, Damned If They Don't
- The Baltics: How to Destroy Your Economy and Keep Your Peg
- Chapter 12 : Japan
- The Mother of All Bubbles
- Japanese Government: Spending Money Like There Is No Tomorrow
- Japan's Endgame
- Chapter 13 : The United Kingdom
- The United Kingdom Economy: Not as Safe as Houses
- Northern Rock: A Modern Bank Run
- The United Kingdom's Endgame: Higher Inflation Ahead
- Chapter 14 : Australia
- The Lucky Country
- A House of Cards
- Chapter 15 : Unintended Consequences
- Bubbles in Emerging Markets
- Difficult Choices
- Conclusion: Investing and Profiting from Endgame
- Epilogue: Some Final Thoughts
- Notes
- About the Authors
- Index
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