Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk
1st Edition
Published on 22. October 2013
308 pages
978-1-4832-8954-0 (ISBN)
Description
Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk discusses the geostatistical treatment of earthquake probabilities. The book reviews global tectonics and geologic history, including evidence of change, Pangaea, geochronology, tectonic revolutions, and the breakup of Pangaea. The book discusses the formation of Pangaea which later broke down into the present continental cores of Asia, Europe, Africa, Australian, Antarctica, and the Americas. The book describes the separation of North and South America from Europe, how Africa became established during the Cretaceous time, and how India split off from Africa to became welded to Asia at the Himalayas. The text also explains earthquake risk in terms of stochastic processes, point processes, and illustrates modeling of the earthquake process. The "Large-Earthquake Model" is based on a list of the largest earthquakes in the region, while a more sophisticated model requires the incorporation of non-Markovian effects (aftershock sequences). The book cites an application of investigations done on California where an earthquake of magnitude 5 is expected to occur every three months. An earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater is predicted to happen every 100 years but the book notes that the return period exceeds the range of the period of recorded data (which is only 31 years). Presented in another way, the text concludes that the probability of occurrence of an event of magnitude 8 earthquake or over in any given year is about one percent. The book can prove helpful for geologists, seismologists, meteorologists, or practitioners in the field of civil and structural engineering.
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Cinna Lomnitz
Global Tectonics and Earthquake Risk
Book
12/1973
Elsevier
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Content
PrefacePart I. Global Tectonics Chapter 1. Continuity and Change Synopsis Evidence of Change Geologic Continuity Chapter 2. Geologic History History of Pangaea Geochronology Dating of Rocks in the Field Tectonic Revolutions The Breakup of Pangaea Chapter 3. Earthquakes Introduction Earthquake Parameters Seismic Waves Mechanism at the Source Elasticity and Anelasticity Equivalent Viscosity of the Mantle Aftershocks Earthquakes and Explosions Chapter 4. Plate Tectonics Introduction The Plate Concept Geometry of Sea-Floor Spreading Tectonics of Sea-Floor Spreading Stresses in Lithospheric Plates Transcursion in California Viscoelastic Rebound as an Earthquake Mechanism Subduction Accretion The Elsasser Model The South American West CoastPart II. Earthquake Risk Chapter 5. Stochastic Processes Introduction Statistics Bayesian Statistics Independence Stationarity Homogeneity Chapter 6. Point Processes Definition The Poisson Process Markov Processes Renewal Processes Generalized Poisson Processes; Superposition Chapter 7. Modelling the Earthquake Process Introduction A Heuristic Model for the Earthquake Process The Klondike Model in Earthquake Theory The Kolmogorov Process Boltzmann Processes The Tagged Self-Exciting Process A Topological Model Chapter 8. Extreme-Value Methods Introduction Earthquake Maxima An Application to California The Maximum Magnitude in a Region Chapter 9. Earthquake Zoning Why Seismic Zoning? Soviet Concepts of Zoning Earthquake Zoning in the U.S.A Risk Mapping Approaches to Earthquake Prediction Chapter 10. Estimation Procedures for Earthquake Risk Introduction Approaches of Analysis Extreme-Value Methods Bayesian Methods Optimization Methods Composition Methods Zoning Methods Simulation Methods A Case History Project Description Geologic Situation Seismotectonic Setting Seismic History Estimation of Earthquake Risk "Pessimistic" Earthquake Risk "Poissonian" Risk Incorporation of Historical Data Summary of Risk Estimates Chapter 11. Strategies for Control of Earthquake Hazard Introduction Initial Strategies Alternative Strategies Prediction Versus Prevention? An Earthquake StrategyPart III. World Seismicity Chapter 12. The Data Seismographs Earthquake Data Processing Array Technology Chapter 13. Seismic Regions of the World Introduction Regional Distribution Seismicity Maps Chapter 14. Circum-Pacific Belt Introduction North America Central and Insular America South America South Pacific Ocean Western Pacific Ocean Chapter 15. East Asian Insular Belt and Eurasia Introduction East Asian Insular Belt Eurasian Domain Western Europe and North Africa Chapter 16. Southern Continental Shields Introduction Africa and Arabia Australia Antarctica Chapter 17. Oceanic Rises Introduction Mid-Atlantic and Arctic Ridge Indian Ocean East-Central Pacific Rise and Hawaiian IslandsAppendix 1. Earthquake Regulations (Section 2314) of the 1968 Los Angeles County Building Code Sec. 2314 - Earthquake RegulationsReferencesIndex
