Why Nobody Believes the Numbers
Distinguishing Fact from Fiction in Population Health Management
Published on 8. June 2012
240 pages
978-1-118-33420-1 (ISBN)
Description
Why Nobody Believes the Numbers introduces a uniqueviewpoint to population health outcomesmeasurement: Results/ROIs should be presented as theyare, not as we wish they would be. This viewpointcontrasts sharply with vendor/promoter/consultant claims along twovery important dimensions:
(1) Why Nobody Believes presentsoutcomes/ROIs achievable right here on this veryplanet...
(2) ...calculated using actual data ratherthan controlled substances.
Indeed, nowhere in healthcare is it possible to find suchsharply contrasting worldviews, methodologies, and grips onreality.
Why Nobody Believes the Numbers includes 12 case studiesof vendors, carriers, and consultants who were apparently playinghooky the day their teacher covered fifth-grade math, as told by anauthor whose argument style can be so persuasive that he was onceable to convince a resort to sell him a timeshare. The book'slesson: no need to believe what your vendor tells you-- instead you can estimate your own savings using"ingredients you already have in your kitchen." Don'tbe intimidated just because you lack a PhD in biostatistics, oreven a Masters, Bachelor's, high-school equivalency diploma orup-to-date inspection sticker.
Why Nobody Believes the Numbers explains howto determine if the ROIs are real...and why they usuallyaren't. You'll learn how to:
* Figure out whether you are "moving the needle" or justcrediting a program with changes that would have happenedanyway
* Judge whether the ROIs your vendors report are plausible oreven arithmetically possible
* Synthesize all these insights into RFPs and contracts thattruly hold vendors accountable for results
Reviews / Votes
"It's rare that a book about mathematics is funny.And this is not just any math: It's population healthanalysis. This is the stuff that employers, benefit managers, CFOsand many others want to know: how to figure out if an intervention"worked" and reduced costs."--EmployeeBenefit News "Do yourself a favor and buy this book. And, keep ithandy the next time you entertain a DM/wellness proposal or examinedata submitted to you by your vendor. You will never readthose proposals or reports the same way again"--Khannaon Health "Digital Health Book of the Year"--ForbesMore details
Other editions
Additional editions
Al Lewis
Why Nobody Believes the Numbers
Distinguishing Fact from Fiction in Population Health Management
Book
07/2012
Wiley
€56.00
Shipment within 15-20 days
Person
AL LEWIS, President of the Disease Management Purchasing Consortium, is widely credited with inventing disease management and was named "the national leader in analyzing care management outcomes" in the 9th Annual Report on the Disease Management and Wellness Industries. He provides procurement and outcomes consulting to health plans and human resources/benefits departments, and administers the industry certification program in Critical Outcomes Report Analysis. He holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard.
Content
Introduction xiii
Chapter 1 Actuaries Behaving Badly 1
Chapter 2 Plausibility Testing: How to Measure Outcomes UsingIngredients You Already Have in Your Kitchen 35
Chapter 3 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Knownto Mankind 53
Chapter 4 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Knownto Mankind and Then Some 73
Chapter 5 Case Studies of Where, When, and How Wellness ProgramsHave Actually Worked 125
Chapter 6 Yes, Virginia, There Is a Savings Clause 141
Chapter 7 Disease Management Programs That Actually Work (PinchMe) 151
Chapter 8 Contracting/RFP Checklist of Do's andDon'ts (Mostly Don'ts) 175
Appendix: The Keys to the Numerical Kingdom 193
Author's Note on Sources 195
Notes 197
Glossary 201
About the Author 207
Bibliography and Further Reading 209
Acknowledgments 211
