
Agent-Based Modeling of Social Conflict
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It is shown that the extensions to Epstein's model proposed herein lead to increased "generative capacity"of the agent-based model (i.e. a richer set of meaningful qualitative behaviors) as well the identification of key mechanisms and associated parameters with tipping points. The use of quantitative information (international indicators and statistical analyses of conflict events) allows the assessment of the plausibility of input parameter values and simulated results, and thus a better understanding of the model's strengths and limitations.
The contributions of the present work for understanding how mechanisms of large scale conflict lead to complexbehavior include a new form of the estimated arrest probability, a simple representation of political vs economic deprivation with a parameter which controls the `sensitivity' to value, endogenous legitimacy feedback, and the effect of network influences (due to small groups and "activists"). In addition, the analysis of the Social Conflict Analysis Database provided a quantitative description of the impact of the "Arab Spring" in several countries focused on complexity issues such as peaceful vs violent, spontaneous vs organized, and patterns of size, duration and recurrence of conflict events in this recent and important large-scale conflict process. This book will appeal to students and researchers working in these computational social science subfields.
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