Smart Baseball

Predictably Irrational meets Moneyball in ESPN veteran writer and statistical analyst Keith Law's iconoclastic look at the numbers game of baseball, proving why some of the most trusted stats are surprisingly wrong, explaining what numbers actually work, and exploring what the rise of Big Data means for the future of the sport.

For decades, statistics such as batting average, saves recorded, and pitching won-lost records have been used to measure individual players' and teams' potential and success. But in the past fifteen years, a revolutionary new standard of measurement?sabermetrics?has been embraced by front offices in Major League Baseball and among fantasy baseball enthusiasts. But while sabermetrics is recognized as being smarter and more accurate, traditionalists, including journalists, fans, and managers, stubbornly believe that the "old" way?a combination of outdated numbers and "gut" instinct?is still the best way. Baseball, they argue, should be run by people, not by numbers.?

In this informative and provocative book, teh renowned ESPN analyst and senior baseball writer demolishes a century's worth of accepted wisdom, making the definitive case against the long-established view. Armed with concrete examples from different eras of baseball history, logic, a little math, and lively commentary, he shows how the allegiance to these numbers?dating back to the beginning of the professional game?is firmly rooted not in accuracy or success, but in baseball's irrational adherence to tradition.

While Law gores sacred cows, from clutch performers to RBIs to the infamous save rule, he also demystifies sabermetrics, explaining what these "new" numbers really are and why they're vital. He also considers the game's future, examining how teams are using Data?from PhDs to sophisticated statistical databases?to build future rosters; changes that will transform baseball and all of professional sports.

Why have fans and managers clung to outdated baseball statistics for so long?and what should we be using instead?

• Deconstructing Baseball Mythology: Join Keith Law as he demolishes a century of accepted wisdom, proving why trusted stats like batting average, pitcher wins, and RBIs are surprisingly wrong.
• The Sabermetric Toolkit: Get an accessible, jargon-free guide to the advanced statistics that matter, from On-Base Percentage (OBP) and wOBA to the all-encompassing WAR (Wins Above Replacement).
• From Moneyball to Statcast: Explore the evolution of baseball's data revolution, from the early days of sabermetrics to the high-tech future of MLB Statcast and Big Data.
• Scouting and the Numbers Game: Understand how front offices are blending traditional scouting with cutting-edge sports analytics to build championship rosters and find undervalued players.