
Fundamentals of Power System Economics
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The introduction of competition in the generation and retail of electricity has changed the ways in which power systems function. The design and operation of successful competitive electricity markets requires a sound understanding of both power systems engineering and underlying economic principles of a competitive market. This extensively revised and updated edition of the classic text on power system economics explains the basic economic principles underpinning the design, operation, and planning of modern power systems in a competitive environment. It also discusses the economics of renewable energy sources in electricity markets, the provision of incentives, and the cost of integrating renewables in the grid.
Fundamentals of Power System Economics, Second Edition looks at the fundamental concepts of microeconomics, organization, and operation of electricity markets, market participants strategies, operational reliability and ancillary services, network congestion and related LMP and transmission rights, transmission investment, and generation investment. It also expands the chapter on generation investments discussing capacity mechanisms in more detail and the need for capacity markets aimed at ensuring that enough generation capacity is available when renewable energy sources are not producing due to lack of wind or sun.
* Retains the highly praised first edition s focus and philosophy on the principles of competitive electricity markets and application of basic economics to power system operating and planning
* Includes an expanded chapter on power system operation that addresses the challenges stemming from the integration of renewable energy sources
* Addresses the need for additional flexibility and its provision by conventional generation, demand response, and energy storage
* Discusses the effects of the increased uncertainty on system operation
* Broadens its coverage of transmission investment and generation investment
* Supports self-study with end-of-chapter problems and instructors with solutions manual via companion website
Fundamentals of Power System Economics, Second Edition is essential reading for graduate and undergraduate students, professors, practicing engineers, as well as all others who want to understand how economics and power system engineering interact.
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Persons
DANIEL S. KIRSCHEN, PHD, is the Donald W. and Ruth Mary Close Professor of Electrical Engineering at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA.
GORAN STRBAC, PHD, is a Professor of Energy Systems at Imperial College London, UK. He is also a member of the Steering Committee of the SmartGrids European Technology Platform, co-chair of EU WG on Sustainable Districts and Built Environment of Smart Cities, and Director of the UK Centre for Grid Scale Energy Storage.
Content
Preface to the First Edition xiii
Preface to the Second Edition xv
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Why Competition? 1
1.2 Market Structures and Participants 2
1.2.1 Traditional Model 2
1.2.2 Introducing Independent Power Producers 4
1.2.3 Wholesale Competition 5
1.2.4 Retail Competition 6
1.2.5 Renewable and Distributed Energy Resources 6
1.3 Dramatis Personae 7
1.4 Competition and Privatization 8
1.5 Experience and Open Questions 9
1.6 Problems 10
Further Reading 11
2 Basic Concepts from Economics 13
2.1 Introduction 13
2.2 Fundamentals of Markets 13
2.2.1 Modeling the Consumers 13
2.2.1.1 Individual Demand 13
2.2.1.2 Surplus 14
2.2.1.3 Demand and Inverse Demand Functions 15
2.2.1.4 Elasticity of Demand 18
2.2.2 Modeling the Producers 18
2.2.2.1 Opportunity Cost 18
2.2.2.2 Supply and Inverse Supply Functions 19
2.2.2.3 Producers' Revenue 20
2.2.2.4 Elasticity of Supply 20
2.2.3 Market Equilibrium 22
2.2.4 Pareto Efficiency 24
2.2.5 Global Welfare and Deadweight Loss 25
2.2.6 Time-varying Prices 26
2.3 Concepts from the Theory of the Firm 27
2.3.1 Inputs and Outputs 27
2.3.2 Long Run and Short Run 27
2.3.3 Costs 30
2.3.3.1 Short-run Costs 30
2.3.3.2 Long-run Costs 32
2.4 Risk 34
2.5 Types of Markets 34
2.5.1 Spot Market 35
2.5.2 Forward Contracts and Forward Markets 35
2.5.3 Futures Contracts and Futures Markets 37
2.5.4 Options 38
2.5.5 Contracts for Difference 39
2.5.6 Managing the Price Risks 40
2.5.7 Market Efficiency 41
2.6 Markets with Imperfect Competition 41
2.6.1 Market Power 41
2.6.2 Monopoly 42
2.7 Problems 43
Further Reading 49
3 Markets for Electrical Energy 51
3.1 What Is the Difference Between a Megawatt-hour and a Barrel of Oil? 51
3.2 Trading Periods 52
3.3 Forward Markets 53
3.3.1 Bilateral or Decentralized Trading 54
3.3.2 Centralized Trading 57
3.3.2.1 Principles of Centralized Trading 57
3.3.2.2 Day-ahead Centralized Trading 59
3.3.2.3 Formulation as an Optimization Problem 60
3.3.2.4 Market Clearing Price 61
3.3.2.5 Recovering the Fixed Costs 63
3.3.3 Comparison of Centralized and Decentralized Trading 67
3.4 Spot Markets 68
3.4.1 Obtaining Balancing Resources 69
3.4.2 Gate Closure 70
3.4.3 Operation of the Spot Market 70
3.4.4 Interactions Between the Spot Market and the Forward Market 72
3.5 The Settlement Process 73
3.6 Problems 75
References 86
Further Reading 86
4 Participating in Markets for Electrical Energy 89
4.1 Introduction 89
4.2 The Consumer's Perspective 89
4.3 The Retailer's Perspective 91
4.4 The Producer's Perspective 98
4.4.1 Perfect Competition 98
4.4.1.1 Basic Dispatch 98
4.4.1.2 Unit Limits 99
4.4.1.3 Piecewise Linear Cost Curves 100
4.4.1.4 No-load Cost 101
4.4.1.5 Scheduling 102
4.4.1.6 Startup Cost 103
4.4.1.7 Operating Constraints 104
4.4.1.8 Environmental Constraints 105
4.4.1.9 Other Economic Opportunities 105
4.4.1.10 Forecasting Errors 105
4.4.2 The Produce Vs Purchase Decision 105
4.4.3 Imperfect Competition 107
4.4.3.1 Bertrand Model 108
4.4.3.2 Cournot Model 109
4.4.3.3 Supply Functions Equilibria 116
4.4.3.4 Agent-Based Modeling 117
4.4.3.5 Experimental Economics 117
4.4.3.6 Limitations of These Models 117
4.5 Perspective of Plants That Do Not Burn Fossil Fuels 117
4.5.1 Nuclear Power Plants 118
4.5.2 Hydroelectric Power Plants 118
4.5.3 Wind and Solar Generation 119
4.5.3.1 Intermittency and Stochasticity 119
4.5.3.2 Government Policies and Subsidies 119
4.5.3.3 Effect on the Markets 120
4.6 The Storage Owner's Perspective 121
4.6.1 Self-scheduling 121
4.6.2 Centralized Operation 122
4.7 The Flexible Consumer's Perspective 125
4.7.1 Flexible Demand Vs Storage 125
4.7.2 Remunerating Flexible Demand 126
4.7.3 Implementation Issues 126
4.8 The Neighbor's Perspective 131
4.9 An Overall Market Perspective 131
4.9.1 Clearing the Market 131
4.9.2 Exercising Market Power 133
4.9.3 Dealing with Market Power 135
4.10 Problems 136
Further Reading 138
5 Transmission Networks and Electricity Markets 141
5.1 Introduction 141
5.2 Decentralized Trading over a Transmission Network 141
5.2.1 Physical Transmission Rights 142
5.2.2 Problems with Physical Transmission Rights 143
5.2.2.1 Parallel Paths 143
5.2.2.2 Example 144
5.2.2.3 Physical Transmission Rights and Market Power 147
5.3 Centralized Trading over a Transmission Network 148
5.3.1 Centralized Trading in a Two-Bus System 148
5.3.1.1 Unconstrained Transmission 149
5.3.1.2 Constrained Transmission 150
5.3.1.3 Congestion Surplus 153
5.3.2 Centralized Trading in a Three-Bus System 155
5.3.2.1 Economic Dispatch 156
5.3.2.2 Correcting the Economic Dispatch 159
5.3.2.3 Nodal Prices 162
5.3.2.4 Congestion Surplus 167
5.3.2.5 Economically Counterintuitive Flows 167
5.3.2.6 Economically Counterintuitive Prices 169
5.3.2.7 More Economically Counterintuitive Prices 171
5.3.2.8 Nodal Pricing and Market Power 171
5.3.2.9 A Few Comments on Nodal Marginal Prices 173
5.3.3 Losses in Transmission Networks 174
5.3.3.1 Types of Losses 174
5.3.3.2 Marginal Cost of Losses 174
5.3.3.3 Effect of Losses on Generation Dispatch 176
5.3.3.4 Merchandising Surplus 178
5.3.3.5 Combining Losses and Congestion 178
5.3.3.6 Handling of Losses Under Bilateral Trading 179
5.3.4 Mathematical Formulation of Nodal Pricing 179
5.3.4.1 Network with a Single Busbar 179
5.3.4.2 Network of Infinite Capacity with Losses 180
5.3.4.3 Network of Finite Capacity with Losses 182
5.3.4.4 Network of Finite Capacity, DC Power Flow Approximation 184
5.3.4.5 AC Modeling 187
5.3.5 Managing Transmission Risks in a Centralized Trading System 188
5.3.5.1 The Need for Network-Related Contracts 188
5.3.5.2 Financial Transmission Rights 189
5.3.5.3 Point-to-Point Financial Transmission Rights 191
5.3.5.4 Flowgate Rights 195
5.4 Problems 195
References 202
Further Reading 202
6 Power System Operation 203
6.1 Introduction 203
6.1.1 The Need for Operational Reliability 203
6.1.2 The Value of Reliability 204
6.1.3 The Cost of Reliability 204
6.1.4 Procuring Reliability Resources 206
6.1.5 Outline of the Chapter 206
6.2 Operational Issues 207
6.2.1 Balancing Issues 207
6.2.1.1 Balancing Resources 210
6.2.1.2 Effect of Generation from Stochastic Renewable Sources 212
6.2.2 Network Issues 212
6.2.2.1 Limits on Power Transfers 212
6.2.2.2 Voltage Control and Reactive Support 214
6.2.2.3 Stability Services 218
6.2.3 System Restoration 218
6.2.4 Market Models Vs Operational Models 219
6.3 Obtaining Reliability Resources 219
6.3.1 Compulsory Provision 219
6.3.2 Market for Reliability Resources 220
6.3.3 System Balancing with a Significant Proportion of Variable Renewable Generation 221
6.3.4 Creating a Level-playing Field 222
6.4 Buying Reliability Resources 223
6.4.1 Quantifying the Needs 223
6.4.2 Co-optimization of Energy and Reserve in a Centralized Electricity Market 224
6.4.3 Allocation of Transmission Capacity Between Energy and Reserve 232
6.4.4 Allocating the Costs 237
6.4.4.1 Who Should Pay for Reserve? 237
6.4.4.2 Who Should Pay for Regulation and Load Following? 238
6.5 Selling Reliability Resources 238
6.6 Problems 243
References 246
Further Reading 247
7 Investing in Generation 249
7.1 Introduction 249
7.2 Generation Capacity from an Investor's Perspective 249
7.2.1 Building New Generation Capacity 249
7.2.2 Retiring Generation Capacity 255
7.2.3 Effect of a Cyclical Demand 257
7.3 Generation Capacity from the Customers' Perspective 260
7.3.1 Expansion Driven by the Market for Electrical Energy 261
7.3.2 Capacity Payments 263
7.3.3 Capacity Market 264
7.3.4 Reliability Contracts 265
7.4 Generation Capacity from Renewable Sources 266
7.4.1 The Investors' Perspective 266
7.4.2 The Consumers' Perspective 267
7.5 Problems 267
References 269
Further Reading 270
8 Investing in Transmission 271
8.1 Introduction 271
8.2 The Nature of the Transmission Business 272
8.3 Cost-Based Transmission Expansion 273
8.3.1 Setting the Level of Investment in Transmission Capacity 274
8.3.2 Allocating the Cost of Transmission 274
8.3.2.1 Postage Stamp Method 275
8.3.2.2 Contract Path Method 275
8.3.2.3 MW-mile Method 276
8.3.2.4 Discussion 276
8.4 The Arbitrage Value of Transmission 276
8.4.1 The Transmission Demand Function 278
8.4.2 The Transmission Supply Function 280
8.4.3 Optimal Transmission Capacity 281
8.4.4 Balancing the Cost of Constraints and the Cost of Investments 282
8.4.5 Effect of Load Fluctuations 283
8.4.5.1 Load-duration Curve 284
8.4.5.2 Recovery of Variable Transmission Investment Costs 287
8.4.6 Revenue Recovery for Suboptimal Transmission Capacity 288
8.4.7 Economies of Scale 290
8.4.8 Transmission Expansion in a Meshed Network 292
8.4.9 Concept of Reference Network 298
8.4.9.1 Notations 298
8.4.9.2 Problem Formulation 300
8.4.9.3 Implementation 300
8.4.9.4 Considering Other Factors 303
8.5 Other Sources of Value 303
8.5.1 Sharing Reserve 303
8.5.2 Sharing Balancing Capacity 306
8.5.3 Sharing Generation Capacity Margin 308
8.6 Decentralized Transmission Expansion 310
8.6.1 Concept 310
8.6.2 Illustration on a Two-bus System 311
8.7 Non-wires Alternatives for Transmission Expansion 314
8.8 Problems 315
References 316
Further Reading 317
Index 319
1
Introduction
1.1 Why Competition?
For most of the twentieth century, when consumers wanted to buy electrical energy, they had no choice. They had to buy it from the utility that held the monopoly for the supply of electricity in the area where these consumers were located. Some of these utilities were vertically integrated, which means that they generated the electrical energy, transmitted it from the power plants to the load centers, and distributed it to individual consumers. In other cases, the utility from which consumers purchased electricity was responsible only for its sale and distribution in a local area. This distribution utility in turn had to purchase electrical energy from a generation and transmission utility that had a monopoly over a wider geographical area. In some parts of the world, these utilities were regulated private companies, while in others they were public companies or government agencies. Irrespective of ownership and level of vertical integration, geographical monopolies were the norm.
Electric utilities operating under this model made truly remarkable contributions to economic activity and quality of life. Most people living in the industrialized world have access to an electricity distribution network. For several decades, the amount of energy delivered by these networks doubled about every 8 years. At the same time, advances in engineering improved the reliability of the electricity supply to the point that in many parts of the world the average consumer is deprived of electricity for less than 2 min per year. These achievements were made possible by ceaseless technological advances. Among these, let us mention only the development and erection of transmission lines operating at over 1 000 000 V and spanning thousands of kilometers, the construction of power plants capable of generating more than 1000 MW and the on-line control of the networks connecting these plants to the consumers. Some readers will undoubtedly feel that on the basis of this record, it may have been premature to write the first paragraph of this book in the past tense.
In the 1980s, some economists started arguing that this model had run its course. They said that the monopoly status of the electric utilities removed the incentive to operate efficiently and encouraged unnecessary investments. They also argued that the cost of the mistakes that private utilities made should not be passed on to the consumers. Public utilities, on the other hand, were often too closely linked to the government. Politics could then interfere with good economics. For example, some public utilities were treated as cash cows, others were prevented from setting rates at a level that reflected costs or were deprived of the capital that they needed for essential investments.
These economists suggested that prices would be lower and the overall economy more efficient if the supply of electricity was subjected to market discipline rather than monopoly regulation or government policy. This proposal was made in the context of a general deregulation of Western economies that had started in the late seventies. Before attention turned toward electricity, this movement had already affected airlines, transportation and the supply of natural gas. In all these sectors, a regulated market or monopolies had previously been deemed the most efficient way of delivering the "products" to the consumers. It was felt that their special characteristics made them unsuitable for trading on free markets. Advocates of deregulation argued that the special characteristics of these products were not insurmountable obstacles and that they could and should be treated like all other commodities. If companies were allowed to compete freely for the provision of electricity, the efficiency gains arising from competition would ultimately benefit the consumers. In addition, competing companies would probably choose different technologies. It was therefore less likely that the consumers would be saddled with the consequences of unwise investments.
If kilowatt-hours could be stacked on a shelf - like kilograms of flour or television sets - ready to be used as soon as the consumer turns on the light or starts the industrial process, electricity would be a simple commodity, and there would be no need for this book. However, despite recent technological advances in electricity storage and microgeneration, this concept is not yet technically or commercially feasible. The reliable and continuous delivery of significant amounts of electrical energy still requires large generating plants connected to the consumer through transmission and distribution networks and careful attention must be paid to reliability.
In this book, we explore how various aspects of the supply of electricity can be packaged into products that can be bought and sold on open markets. Because these products cannot be fully separated from the supply infrastructure, we also discuss how their trading affects the operation of the power system and, in turn, how operational constraints impinge on the electricity markets.
In the long run, the need always arises to invest in new facilities, either because a new technology holds the promise of greater profits or simply because equipment age and need to be replaced. Here again we will need to examine the interplay between market-driven behavior, physical constraints, and the need for reliability.
1.2 Market Structures and Participants
Before we delve into the analysis of electricity markets, it is useful to consider the various ways in which they can be structured and to introduce the types of companies and organizations that play a role in these markets. In the following chapters, we will discuss in much more detail the function and motivations of each of these participants. Since markets have evolved at different rates and in somewhat different directions in each country or region, not all these entities will be found in each market.
1.2.1 Traditional Model
In the traditional market model (Figure 1.1), trading is limited to consumers purchasing electricity from their local electric utility. This utility has two main characteristics. First, it has a monopoly for the supply of electricity over its service territory. If consumers want to purchase electricity, they do not have a choice: they have to buy it from this utility. Second, the utility is vertically integrated. This means that it performs all the functions required to supply electricity: building generating plants, transmission lines and distribution networks, operating these assets in a reliable manner, and billing the consumers for the service provided.
Figure 1.1 Traditional model of electricity supply.
In a fairly common variant of the traditional model (Figure 1.2), the vertically integrated utility is split in two parts. One organization generates and transmits electricity over a fairly wide area and sells it to several distribution companies (Discos), each of which has a local monopoly for the sale of electricity to consumers.
Figure 1.2 Variant on the traditional model of electricity supply.
Because monopolies could take advantage of the fact that their customers do not have a choice to charge them extortionate prices, they must either be government entities or be subject to oversight by a government department, which we shall call the regulator. In the traditional model, the regulator enforces what is called the regulatory compact. This is an agreement that gives a utility a monopoly for the supply of electricity over a given geographical area. In exchange, the utility agrees that its prices will be set by the regulator, that it will supply all the consumers in that area, and that it will maintain a certain quality of service.
This model does not preclude bilateral energy trades between utilities operating in different geographical areas. Such trades take place at the wholesale level, i.e. through interconnections between transmission networks.
The problem with the traditional model and its variant is that monopolies tend to be inefficient because they do not have to compete with others in order to survive. Furthermore, because their operations are rather opaque, regulators have difficulties assessing where improvements could be made.
1.2.2 Introducing Independent Power Producers
A first step toward a more competitive industry structure consists in allowing other companies (called independent power producers or IPPs) to produce part of the electrical energy that the incumbent vertically integrated utility must supply to its customers. Figure 1.3 illustrates this arrangement. While this model introduces a degree of competition at the generation level, it does not provide a mechanism for discovering cost-reflective prices in the same way that a free market does (see Chapter 2). The incumbent utility would like to pay as little as possible for the energy produced by the IPPs to discourage them from expanding their generation capacity. It must therefore be forced by law to buy the power produced by the IPPs. Given this guarantee that their production will be purchased, the IPPs will try to get as high a price as they can. This leaves the regulator with the task of deciding what an equitable price would be. In the absence of detailed and reliable information, the result will often be economically inefficient.
Figure 1.3 Incumbent vertically integrated utility with independent power...
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