Trading With The Odds
Using the Power of Statistics to Profit in the futures Market
1st Edition
Published on 1. March 1996
178 pages
978-0-07-183504-6 (ISBN)
Available for download
Description
Every trader will appreciate this reliable, realistic, and systematic approach to trading financial and commodity markets. In a step-by-step manner, the author applies a rigorous mathematical discipline to finanical speculation and explain how to analyze markets, forecast price movements, develop trading strategies, and manage trading capital. Kase also unveils several highly sophisticated indicators that are far more precise than conventional technical indicators. Unlike most books on trading, Trading with the Odds contains complete coverage of money management, including the author's own ``Kase Dev-Stop,'' a highly calibrated money management tool. Trading with the Odds also includes: Uses and abuses of conventional technical analysis, New technical indicators for analyzing markets and entering trades.
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04/1996
Irwin Professional Publishing
€53.47
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Content
- Cover
- Title Page
- Copyright Page
- Contents
- FOREWORD
- INTRODUCTION
- Chapter 1: Increasing the Probability of Success with Science and Statistics
- Replace Empirical Methods with Mathematically Derived Models
- Manipulate Data to Improve Performance
- Condense Information
- Automatically Adaptive Indicators
- Science, Not Magic
- New Ideas Challenge Old Beliefs
- Corporate Trading Must Be Accurate
- While Never Easy, Trading Can at Least be Simple
- Chapter 2: The True Nature of the Market
- What is Important to Understand about the Market?
- The Market Is Symmetrical Across Time Frames
- Elliott's Wave Theory Is Essentially Correct
- Forecasting versus Trading
- The Market Is Mostly Predictable
- Market Extremes Are Unstable and Unpredictable
- The Logarithmic Spiral Describes Market Behavior
- There Is No Magic Formula or Easy Answer
- Chapter 2 Appendix: Statistics Overview
- Chapter 3: Developing a Strategy with Accurate Forecasting
- Can People Really Forecast the Market Accurately?
- The Six Kase Behavioral Laws of Forecasting
- Market Geometry
- Forecasting Methods
- Patterns and Rules
- The Math
- Corrective Move Retracements
- The Rule of Three
- Applying the Rules
- Shorter Than Rule
- Equal To Rule
- Longer Than Rule
- IT, IF, and IX Rules
- The Rule of Three
- Retracements
- The Forecasting Grid
- Forecasting Grid
- Forecasting Grid Legend
- Chapter 3 Appendix: Using Chart Formations In Forecasting
- Chapter 4: Improving the Probability of Success with Time Diversification
- Screening Trades
- Screening Using Trending Filters
- Screening Using Momentum Filters
- Bar Numbering Protocol
- The Kase Permission Stochastic: Redefining Time
- The Kase Permission Stochastic: A Better Screen
- Kase Permission Stochastic Filters
- Condensing the Information
- Kase Warning Signs
- Scaling In Trades
- Setting Up Charts
- Scaling Up in Time Examples
- Trade One Example: Loss Minimized by Scaling Techniques
- Trade Two Example: Gain Maximized by Scaling Technique
- Determining True Range
- Fine-Tuning Entries
- Price and Volume Proportional to the Square Root of Time
- Chapter 4 Appendix: The Traditional Stochastic Indicator
- Chapter 5: Increasing the Probability of Catching Market Turns
- Why Traditional Momentum Indicators Cannot Be Evaluated Statistically
- What If We Could Define Overbought and Oversold?
- The Solution: The Statistically Based Kase peakOscillator
- PeakOscillator Works while Other Indicators Do Not
- Improving Divergence Signals with the KaseCD (KCD)
- Using the PeakOscillator in Trading
- Stochastic Processes, Monte Carlo
- Simulations, and Random Walk Mathematics
- Stochastic Processes
- Monte Carlo Simulations
- The Kase Twist on the RWI
- Chapter 6: Using Statistics to find Optimal Stop: Ease's Adaptive Dev-Stop
- The Old Mousetrap: Stops Based on Fear
- What Risk Does the Market Impose?
- Stops Must Relate to the Market's Threshold of Uncertainty
- The Wilder and Bookstaber Volatility Method
- Variance of Volatility
- The Skew of Volatility
- Engineering a Better Stop: the Kase Dev-Stops
- The Dev-Stop is as Close as Possible to the Best Balance
- Charting the Dev-Stop
- Using Candlestick Patterns to Accelerate Exits
- Five Important Candlestick Patterns for Finessing Exits
- Accelerating Exits Using Candlestick Patterns
- An Example of Accelerated Exits Using Candlestick Patterns
- Using the Dev-Stop in Trading
- Chapter Six Appendix: Gaps
- Chapter 7: Walking Through Trades
- Trade Plan for Example Trades
- Timing Signals
- Monitor/Timing Chart, Exit Rules and Stops
- Daily Chart, Exit Rules and Stops
- Forecasting Rules
- Walking through a Trade Using The Kase Rules and Indicators
- Example One: August 1995 Natural Gas
- Example Two: July 1995
- Chapter 8: Freedom from Time and Space with Universal Bars
- Rules for Formatting Equal Range Bars
- References
- Index
