
Foreign Exchange Rates and International Finance
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Content
- Intro
- Contents
- List of Figures
- List of Exhibits
- List of Graphs
- Preface
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1
- History of Monetary System
- 1. Introduction: History of Money
- 2. History of Currencies
- 2.1. Fixed Exchange Rate
- 2.1.1. Payments of Trade Account Deficits
- 2.1.2. Gold Standard before World War II
- 2.1.3. After the Bretton Woods
- 2.1.4. Special Drawing Rights
- 2.1.5. The Abandonment of the Gold Exchange Standard
- 2.1.6. The "Golden Age" of the Twentieth Century
- 2.2. Floating Exchange Rate
- 2.3. Eurodollars and Eurocurrencies
- 2.3.1. History of Euro-Currency Market
- 2.3.2. From the European Monetary System to the Economic and Monetary Union
- 2.3.3. The Latest Euro-Zone Debt Crisis
- 2.4. Modern Currency Regimes
- 2.4.1. Optimum Currency Area (OCA)
- 2.4.2. Thoughts for a New Financial System
- Summary
- Appendix
- Chapter 2
- Balance of Payments and Exchange Rates
- 1. Measuring the Balance of Payments
- 1.1. Debits and Credits of the Accounts of the Balance of Payments
- 1.2. Composition of the Accounts of the Balance of Payments
- 1.3. International Imbalances between Countries
- 1.4. Balance of Payments Crises
- 2. Domestic Economy, Balance of Payments, and Public Policies
- 2.1. Factors Affecting the Current and Capital Accounts
- 2.2. Improving the Balance of Payments through Exchange Rates or Protectionism
- 2.3. Improving the Balance of Payments by Adjusting Domestic Prices and Demand
- 2.4. Interaction of the Balance of Payments with the Domestic Economy
- 2.5. Trade Balance and Exchange Rate (The J-Curve)
- 3. National Economies and Balance of Payments: Some Historical Perspectives
- 3.1. The Fixed Exchange Rate Era
- 3.2. The Flexible Exchange Rate Era up to the Global Financial Crisis
- 3.3. From the Post Washington Consensus to the Present
- Summary
- Appendix
- Chapter 3
- The Foreign Exchange Market
- 1. Functions of the Foreign Exchange Market
- 2. Market Participants
- 2.1. Foreign Exchange Dealers and Brokers
- 2.2. Commercial Companies
- 2.3. Central Banks and Treasuries
- 2.4. Foreign Exchange Fixing
- 2.5. Hedge Funds, Speculators, Arbitragers, and Others
- 2.6. Investment Management Firms
- 2.7. Retail Foreign Exchange Traders
- 2.8. Non-Bank Foreign Exchange Companies
- 2.9. Money Transfer/Remittance Companies and Bureaux de Change
- 2.10. Individuals and Firms
- 3. Trading Characteristics
- 4. Transactions in the Foreign Exchange Market
- 4.1. Spot Transactions
- 4.2. Forward Transactions
- 4.3. Swap Transactions
- 4.4. Currency Futures
- 4.5. Foreign Currency Options
- 5. Speculation
- 6. Foreign Exchange Rate Quotations
- 6.1. Direct and Indirect Quotes
- 6.2. Bid and Ask Outright Quotations
- 6.3. Bid and Ask Points Quotations (Swap Rates)
- 6.4. Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms
- 6.4.1. Example of Points Quotations (Swap Rates)
- 6.5. Sources of Foreign Exchange Market Information
- 6.6. Cross Rates
- 7. Foreign Exchange Rate Arbitrage
- 7.1. Simple Intermarket Arbitrage
- 7.2. Intermarket Triangular Arbitrage
- Summary
- Appendix
- Chapter 4
- Exchange Rate Determination and Forecasting
- 1. Foreign Exchange Rate Determination
- 1.1. Exchange Rate Theories
- 1.2. The Balance of Payments Approach
- 1.3. Exchange Rate Determination: The Asset Market Models
- 1.3.1. The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate Determination
- 1.3.1.1. The Monetarist Model (Flexible Prices)
- 1.3.1.2. The Exchange Rate Dynamics or Overshooting Model (Sticky Prices)
- 1.3.2. Portfolio-Balance Approach of the Exchange Rate Determination
- 2. Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market and Exchange Rate Movement
- 2.1. The Efficiency of the Foreign Exchange Market
- 2.1.1. The Random Walk Hypothesis
- 2.1.2. The Unbiased Forward Rate Hypothesis
- 2.1.3. The Composite Efficiency Hypothesis
- 2.1.4. Exchange Rate Volatility and Predictability
- 2.2. Exchange Rate Expectations and Unanticipated Events ("News")
- 3. Money Market and Exchange Rate
- 4. Exchange Rate and Risk: Wars, Global Financial Crises, and Debt Crises
- 4.1. Wars, Crises and Exchange Rate
- 4.2. Oil Prices, Euro-Zone Debt Crisis, and Exchange Rate
- 4.3. Monetary, Fiscal, and Trade Policies and Exchange Rate
- 5. Foreign Exchange Rate Forecasting
- 5.1. Methods of Exchange Rate Forecasting
- 5.2. Technical Forecasting Techniques and Practices
- 5.2.1. Time-Series Trends
- 5.2.1.1. Deterministic Trends
- 5.2.1.2. Models of Stochastic Trend
- 5.2.2. Time-Series Models
- 5.2.2.1. The Autoregressive [] Model
- 5.2.2.2. The Moving Average [] Model
- 5.2.2.3. The Mixed Autoregressive-Moving Average [] Model
- 5.3. Fundamental Forecasting
- 5.3.1. An Augmented Monetary Model of Exchange Rate Forecasting
- 5.3.2. Combining Regression Analysis with a Time-Series Model: Transfer Function Models
- 5.3.3. Multiequation Time-Series Models
- 5.3.3.1. Vector Autoregression () Analysis
- 5.3.3.2. The Impulse Response Function
- 5.4. Market-Based Forecasting
- 5.4.1. The Current Spot Rate as a Forecasting Indicator
- 5.4.2. The Forward Exchange Rate as a Forecasting Indicator
- 5.5. Forecasting with the Use of Currency Betas (ßS)
- 5.6. Mixed Forecasting
- 5.7. Forecasting Evaluation
- Summary
- Appendix
- Chapter 5
- Exchange Rates and International Parity Conditions
- 1. International Parity Conditions
- 1.1. Prices and Exchange Rates
- 1.1.1. Commodity Price Parity (CPP)
- 1.1.2. Absolute Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
- 1.1.3. Relative Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)
- 1.1.4. Nominal, Real, and Effective Exchange Rate
- 1.1.5. Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity
- 1.2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
- 1.2.1. The Fisher Effect
- 1.2.2. The International Fisher Effect
- 1.2.3. The Real Interest Rate Parity
- 1.3. The Most Important Relation in International Finance: Interest Rate Parity (IRP)
- 1.3.1. Uncovered Interest Arbitrage (UIA)
- 1.3.2. Covered Interest Arbitrage (CIA)
- 1.4. Forward Discount or Premium and Their Relationship with Expected Future Spot Rate and Expected Inflation
- 1.4.1. The Forward Rate as an Unbiased Predictor of the Future Spot Rate
- 1.4.2. The Forward Discount and Expected Inflation Differential
- 2. Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency
- 2.1. Weak Market Efficiency
- 2.2. Semi-Strong Market Efficiency
- 2.3. Strong Market Efficiency
- 2.4. Anomalies in Market Efficiency
- 3. Exchange Rate Expectations
- 3.1. Static Expectations
- 3.2. Extrapolative Expectations
- 3.3. Adaptive Expectations
- 3.4. Rational Expectations
- 3.5. Regressive Expectations
- 3.6. General Specifications of Expectations
- Summary
- Appendix
- 1.1. Exchange Rate and Parity Conditions: Empirical Results
- 1.1.1. Empirical Results of Eqs. (140) and (144)
- 1.1.2. Empirical Results of Eqs. (141), (143), and (145)
- 1.1.3. Deviations from PPP: Empirical Results of Eq. (149)
- 1.2. Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
- 1.2.1. The Forward Rate as an Unbiased Predictor of the Future Spot Rate
- 1.2.2. The Forward Discount and Expected Inflation Differential. Eq. (176)
- 1.3. The Weak Market Efficiency, Eq. (180)
- 1.4. The Semi-Strong Market Efficiency, Eq. (186)
- 1.5. Extrapolative Expectations
- 1.6. Adaptive Expectations
- 1.7. Rational Expectations
- 1.8. Regressive Expectations
- 1.9. General Specifications of Expectations
- Chapter 6
- Foreign Currency Derivatives
- 1. Foreign Currency Forward and Futures Contracts
- 1.1. Foreign Currency Forward Contracts
- 1.2. Foreign Currency Futures Contracts
- 1.2.1. Contract Specifications
- 1.2.2. Speculating by Using Foreign Currency Futures
- 1.2.2.1. Short Positions
- 1.2.2.2. Long Positions
- 1.3. Foreign Currency Swaps
- 2. Foreign Currency Options
- 2.1. Currency Call Options
- 2.1.1. Currency Calls: Quotations and Pricing
- 2.1.2. Currency Calls: Pricing of Premium
- 2.2. Currency Put Options
- 2.2.1. Currency Puts: Quotations and Pricing
- 2.2.2. Currency Puts: Factors Affecting the Premium
- 2.3. European Currency Option Pricing Theory
- 2.4. Currency Futures Options
- 2.5. Foreign Exchange Binary Options
- 2.6. Currency Option Combinations
- 2.6.1. Currency Straddles
- 2.6.2. Currency Strangles
- Summary
- Appendix
- Example A2. European Call Option: A Numerical Example
- Chapter 7
- Foreign Exchange Exposure and Its Management
- 1. Types of Foreign Exchange Exposures and Their Management
- 1.1. Translation Exposure
- 1.1.1. Translation Methods
- 1.1.2. Managing Translation Exposure
- 1.2. Transaction Exposure
- 1.2.1. Measurement of Transaction Exposure
- 1.2.2. Management of Transaction Exposure
- 1.2.2.1. Management of Receivables
- 1.2.2.2. Management of Payables
- 1.3. Economic or Operating Exposure
- 1.3.1. Measurement of Operating Exposure
- 1.3.2. Management of Operating Exposure
- 1.3.2.1. Long-Term Forward Contracts
- 1.3.2.2. Matching Currency Cash Flows
- 1.3.2.3. Risk-Sharing Agreements
- 1.3.2.4. Currency Swaps
- 1.3.2.5. Parallel Loans or Back-to-Back Loans or Credit Swap
- 1.3.2.6. Leading and Lagging
- 1.3.2.7. Cross-Hedging
- 1.3.2.8. Re-Invoicing Centers
- 1.3.2.9. Discounting Bills Receivables
- 1.3.2.10. Factoring Receivables
- 1.3.2.11. Currency Overdrafts
- 1.3.2.12. Currency Diversification
- 1.3.2.13. Government Exchange Risk Guarantees
- 1.4. Alternative Exchange Rate Exposures and Hedging Techniques
- 1.4.1. Contingent Exposure
- 1.4.2. Tax Exposure
- 1.4.3. Exposure Netting
- Summary
- Chapter 8
- Multinational Corporations and International Cost of Capital
- 1. Multinational Corporations
- 1.1. Objective of Multinational Corporation
- 1.2. Corporate Governance
- 1.2.1. Principles of Corporate Governance
- 1.2.2. Corporate Governance Models in the West
- 1.2.2.1. In Continental Europe
- 1.2.2.2. In the United States and the United Kingdom
- 1.2.3. Parties and Structure of Corporate Governance
- 1.2.4. Mechanisms and Controls
- 1.2.5. Executive Pay
- 1.3. Corporate Regulation
- 1.4. Criticism of Multinational Corporations
- 2. Cost of Capital
- 2.1. Cost of Capital of a Domestic Firm
- 2.1.1. Component Cost of Debt ()
- 2.1.2. Component Cost of Preferred Stock ()
- 2.1.3. Component Cost of "Old" Stock or Retained Earnings ()
- 2.1.4. Component Cost of "New" Stock or External Equity ()
- 2.1.5. The Weighted Average Cost of Capital ()
- 2.2. Cost of Capital of the Multinational Corporation
- 3. Capital Structure
- 3.1. Optimal Capital Structure
- 3.2. Equity Capital
- 3.3. Depositary Receipts
- 3.4. Debt Financing
- 3.5. Financing the Foreign Subsidiary
- 3.6. Offshore Financial Centers
- Summary
- Appendix
- Chapter 9
- Multinational Capital Budgeting
- 1. Capital Budgeting for the Multinational Corporation
- 1.1. Complexities of Capital Budgeting for a Foreign Project
- 1.2. Subsidiary (Project) Versus Parent Valuation
- 1.3. Illustrative Case: U.S. International Enters Argentania de America del Sur
- 1.3.1. Sensitivity Analysis: Project Viewpoint
- 1.3.1.1. Political Risk
- 1.3.1.2. Foreign Exchange Risk
- 1.3.2. Sensitivity Analysis: Parent Viewpoint Measurement
- 1.3.2.1. Adjusting Discount Rates
- 1.3.2.2. Adjusting Cash Flows
- 1.3.2.3. Shortcomings of Each Method
- 1.3.2.4. Repercussions to the Investor
- 1.3.2.5. MNCs Practices
- 1.3.3. Portfolio Risk Measurement
- 1.3.4. Project Financing
- 1.4. Cross-Border Mergers and Acquisitions
- 1.4.1. The Cross-Border Acquisition Process
- Stage 1: Identification and Valuation
- Stage 2: Execution of the Acquisition
- Stage 3: Post-Acquisition Management
- 1.4.2. Currency Risks in Cross-Border Acquisitions
- Summary
- Chapter 10
- Foreign Direct Investment and Portfolio Theory
- 1. Foreign Direct Investment
- 1.1. Forms and Competitiveness of Foreign Direct Investment
- 1.2. Types and Motives for Foreign Direct Investment
- 1.3. Methods and Modes of Foreign Direct Investment
- 1.4. Strategic Alliance and Franchising
- 1.5. Global Uncertainty
- 1.6. Opposition to International Financial Institutions and Globalization
- 2. Portfolio Theory
- 2.1. Portfolio Diversification Theory
- 2.1.1. Domestic Portfolio Theory
- 2.1.2. International Portfolio Theory
- 2.1.2.1. International Portfolio Risk
- 2.1.2.2. Foreign Exchange Risk
- 2.1.2.3. Country, Systematic, and Systemic Risks
- 2.1.3. International Market Performance
- 2.2. International Investment
- Summary
- Chapter 11
- International Trade Finance
- 1. Financing International Trade
- 1.1. International Trade Documents
- 1.1.1. Commercial Documents
- 1.1.1.1. Invoice
- 1.1.1.2. Certificate of Origin
- 1.1.1.3. Weight Note or Certificate
- 1.1.1.4. Packing List
- 1.1.1.5. Quality or Inspection Certificate
- 1.1.1.6. Export Declaration
- 1.1.2. Official Documents
- 1.1.2.1. Consular Invoice
- 1.1.2.2. Legalized Invoice
- 1.1.2.3. Black-Listed Certificate
- 1.1.2.4. Health, Veterinary, and Sanitary Certificate/Photo Sanitary Certificate, Certificate of Analysis
- 1.1.3. Insurance Documents
- 1.1.4. Transport Documents
- 1.1.5. Financial and Financing Documents
- 1.1.5.1. Letter of Credit (L/C)
- 1.1.5.2. Draft or Bill of Exchange (B/E)
- 1.1.5.3. Banker's Acceptance (BA)
- 1.1.5.4. Promissory Notes
- 1.1.5.5. Trust Receipts
- 1.1.5.6. Trade Acceptances
- 1.1.5.7. Factoring
- 1.1.5.8. Securitization
- 1.1.5.9. Commercial Paper
- 1.1.5.10. Bank Credit Line
- 1.2. Government Programs Financing Exports and Insurance Policies
- 1.3. Forfaiting
- Summary
- Chapter 12
- Political Risk and Its Management
- 1. Political Risk
- 1.1. Firm-Specific (Micro-) Political Risk
- 1.2. Country-Specific (Macro-) Political Risk
- 1.3. Global-Specific (Universal-) Political Risk
- 1.4. Assessing Political Risk
- 1.4.1. Checklist Approach
- 1.4.2. Delphi Technique
- 1.4.3. Quantitative Analysis
- 1.4.4. Inspection Visits
- 1.4.5. Combination of Techniques
- 2. Political Risk Management
- 2.1. Managing Political Risk
- 2.2. Investment Insurance and Guarantees
- Summary
- Appendix
- References
- About the Author
- Index
- Blank Page
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