
Balance
Description
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From the Ming Dynasty to Ottoman Turkey to Imperial Spain, the Great Powers of the world emerged as the greatest economic, political, and military forces of their time?only to collapse into rubble and memory. What is at the root of their demise?and how can America stop this pattern from happening again?
A quarter century after Paul Kennedy's Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, Glenn Hubbard and Tim Kane present a bold, sweeping account of why powerful nations and civilizations break down under the heavy burden of economic imbalance. Introducing a profound new measure of economic power, Balance traces the triumphs and mistakes of imperial Britain, the paradox of superstate California, the long collapse of Rome, and the limits of the Japanese model of growth. Most importantly, Hubbard and Kane compare the twenty-first century United States to the empires of old and challenge Americans to address the real problems of our country's dysfunctional fiscal imbalance. Without a new economics and politics of balance, they show the inevitable demise ahead.
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Content
- Intro
- Dedication
- Acknowledgments
- Chapter 1: Introduction
- America's Existential Threat Is Fiscal
- The Entitlement State
- The Democracy Paradox
- Road Map
- Chapter 2: The Economics of Great Power
- What Is the Wealth of a Nation?
- Microscopes and Telescopes
- Keep Fear Alive
- Confusion and Consensus (A Necessary Primer on Growth)
- The Relativism of Paul Kennedy
- But China Is Different!
- The Problem with Growth
- How to Measure Economic Power
- An Economic Power Worldview
- The Behavioral Explanation for Declinism
- Chapter 3: Economic Behavior and Institutions
- How Do People Really Behave?
- National Vision and Division
- A Bird in the Hand
- The Tall Man Problem
- Economic and Political Institutions
- Template for Great Power Imbalance
- Chapter 4: The Ruin of Rome
- A Sketch of the Roman Economy
- Caesarian Seeds
- Evidence of the Fall
- Imperial Imbalance
- The Beginning of the End: Trajan's Accession
- The Middle of the End: The Severan Debasement
- The End of the End: Diocletian's Command Economy
- The Collective Action Problem
- Chapter 5: Treasure of China
- Master Kong
- The Only Constant Is Change
- Innovation and Growth
- The Real Story of the Treasure Ships
- The Great Divergence
- Overstretch or Inwardness or . . .
- Chapter 6: The Sun Fades on Spain
- A Century of (Geographic) Growth
- Almost a Superpower
- Silver Foundations
- Property Rights and Wrongs
- Political Crowding Out
- Chapter 7: Rule of Slaves: The Ottoman Paradox
- Tolerance and Diversity
- The Janissaries
- Tax Farming
- Too Little, Too Late?
- Chapter 8: Japanese Opening
- Fuseki: John Manjiro and the Meijin
- Tesuji: Key Features of the Asian Miracle
- New Fuseki: Will Japan Rise Again?
- Chapter 9: British Decimation
- How Did Britain Grow?
- Prophecy in Vain
- Greater Britain Redux
- Chapter 10: Europa: Unity and Diversity
- Statism in Two States
- Theoretical Models and European Supermodels
- Eurozone Pros, Cons, and Interest Rates
- Is the Eurozone Crisis a Euro Crisis?
- Taking Measure of Institutions
- The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come
- Chapter 11: California Dreaming
- Empire of Liberty, Union of States
- Government Bondage (Munis and Pensions)
- Breaking the Tension
- A State of Denial (Taxes, Deficits, Rail)
- Meet the New Praetorians
- Term Limits and Time Preferences
- Polarization by Design
- Bankrupt Incentives
- Chapter 12: United States Beyond the Consequence Horizon
- The Center Holds
- A First Look at Polarization
- The History and Future of Debt
- "Entitlements" Primer
- Breaking a Political Prisoners' Dilemma
- A Second Look at Polarization
- Chapter 13: Amending America
- The Lessons of Great Power History
- Balance of Economics
- The Optimal Economic Future
- Defending Democracy
- The Reform Odyssey
- The Twenty-Eighth Amendment?
- American Rebirth
- Appendix
- About Glenn Hubbard and Tim Kane
- References
- Notes
- Index
- Copyright
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