Psychology of Intelligence Analysis
Published on 5. March 2020
201 pages
978-1-83974-305-4 (ISBN)
Description
In this seminal work, published by the C.I.A. itself, produced by Intelligence veteran Richards Heuer discusses three pivotal points. First, human minds are ill-equipped ("poorly wired") to cope effectively with both inherent and induced uncertainty. Second, increased knowledge of our inherent biases tends to be of little assistance to the analyst. And lastly, tools and techniques that apply higher levels of critical thinking can substantially improve analysis on complex problems.
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Content
- Intro
- TABLE OF CONTENTS
- Author's Preface
- Foreword
- Introduction
- PART I-OUR MENTAL MACHINERY
- Chapter 1 - Thinking About Thinking
- Chapter 2 - Perception: Why Can't We See What Is There To Be Seen?
- Chapter 3 - Memory: How Do We Remember What We Know?
- PART II-TOOLS FOR THINKING
- Chapter 4 - Strategies for Analytical Judgment: Transcending the Limits of Incomplete Information
- Chapter 5 - Do You Really Need More Information?
- Chapter 6 - Keeping an Open Mind
- Chapter 7 - Structuring Analytical Problems
- Chapter 8 - Analysis of Competing Hypotheses
- PART III-COGNITIVE BIASES
- Chapter 9 - What Are Cognitive Biases?
- Chapter 10 - Biases in Evaluation of Evidence
- Chapter 11 - Biases in Perception of Cause and Effect
- Chapter 12 - Biases in Estimating Probabilities
- Chapter 13 - Hindsight Biases in Evaluation of Intelligence Reporting
- PART IV-CONCLUSIONS
- Chapter 14 - Improving Intelligence Analysis
- The Author
