
Influence and Escalation
Description
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This report presents eight scenarios-four focused on Russia and four focused on China-that invite potential escalation risks and demonstrate how the tools and tactics of influence operations could be employed to challenge detection, response, and crisis management. It explores a range of potential escalatory pathways and destabilizing consequences if adversary influence operations engage strategic interests and targets in high-risk scenarios and identifies key takeaways and recommendations for policymakers to better identify and defend against adversary influence operations.
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Persons
Eric Brewer is deputy director and senior fellow with the Project on Nuclear Issues at CSIS.
Lindsey Sheppard is a former fellow with the International Security Program at CSIS.
Maxwell Simon is a former program coordinator and research assistant with the Project on Nuclear Issues in the International Security Program at CSIS.
Content
Executive Summary V
Introduction 1
1 | Project Objective and Scope 2
2 | Influence Tactics, Techniques, and Trends 5
3 | The Information Ecosystem and Digital Influence Technologies 11
4 | Exploring the Connection between Influence Operations and Escalation Risk 19
5 | Key Findings and Recommendations 28
Appendix A: Russia-Focused Scenarios 32
Appendix B: China-Focused Scenarios 42
About the Authors 51
Endnotes 53
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