
Human Judgment and Social Policy
Description
Alles über E-Books | Antworten auf Fragen rund um E-Books, Kopierschutz und Dateiformate finden Sie in unserem Info- & Hilfebereich.
More details
Other editions
Additional editions


Content
- Intro
- Contents
- Introduction
- I: RIVALRY
- 1. Irreducible Uncertainty and the Need for Judgment
- Determinism in the Objective World
- Indeterminism in the Objective World
- Human Judgment and Uncertainty
- Different Consequences of Different Errors
- Duality of Error in Law and Medicine
- 2. Duality of Error and Policy Formation
- Misconceiving Probabilities and Its Consequences
- The Slow Formal Recognition of the Duality of Error
- Are Cycles of Differential Injustice to Individuals and Society Inevitable?
- 3. Coping with Uncertainty: The Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis
- Intuition and Analysis in the History of Thought
- Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis in the Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making
- Which View Is Correct?
- Implications for Policy formation
- II: TENSION
- 4. Tension Between Coherence and Correspondence Theories of Competence
- Engineering
- Medicine
- Economics
- Science
- Coherence and Correspondence Theories Introduced into Judgment and Decision Making
- A Framework for Evaluation of the Competence of Human Judgment
- Current Conclusions About the Competence of Human Judgment
- 5. The Evolutionary Roots of Correspondence Competence
- Mating Judgments
- Navigation
- Combat
- Use of Multiple Fallible Indicators by Apes
- Use of Multiple Fallible Indicators by Early Homo Sapiens
- The Construction of Multiple Fallible Indicators for Policymaking
- III: COMPROMISE AND RECONCILIATION
- 6. Reducing Rivalry Through Compromise
- Premise 1: A Cognitive Continuum
- Premise 2: Common Sense
- 7. Task Structure and Cognitive Structure
- Premise 3: Theory of Task Structures
- Premise 4: Dynamic Cognition
- Premise 5: Pattern Recognition and Functional Relations
- Summary
- 8. Reducing Tension Through Complementarity
- Critiques of Negative Views of Coherence Competence
- Resolving the Tension Between Coherence and Correspondence Through Complementarity
- Correspondence and Coherence in Popper's "Three Worlds
- Part III: Summary
- IV: POSSIBILITIES
- 9. Is It Possible to Learn by Intervening?
- An Example
- The Modes of Inquiry Matrix as a Predictor
- Trapped" Administrators
- Desperate Administrators
- Experimenting Administrators
- Mode l: Methods of Physical Science
- Mode 2: Randomized, Experimental-Control Group Experiments
- Mode 3: Quasi-experimentation
- Summary
- 10. Is It Possible to Learn from Representing?
- Mode 4A: Hypothetical Intervention and Manipulation of Variables and Conditions: The Coherence Approach
- Mode 4B: The Correspondence Approach
- Mode 4C: The Cognitive Activity of Policymakers
- Mode 5: Expert Judgment
- Mode 6: Unrestricted Judgment
- Summary
- 11. Possibilities for Wisdom
- Hadley Cantril and Friends: Franklin Roosevelt and Dwight Eisenhower
- The "Romantic" Period
- Janis's Attempts to Link Psychology and Policy Making
- My Turn at the White House
- Suedfeld and Tetlock: Broadening the Perspective
- The Reappearance of Common Sense: Philip Howard and His Friends-President Clinton, Senator Dole, and Company
- The Conventional Road to Wisdom: Dependence on the Elders
- 12. The Possible Future of Cognitive Competence
- Past
- Present
- Future
- 13. Rivalry, Tension-Forever?
- The Persistence of Rivalry Between Intuition and Analysis at the Supreme Court
- The Persistence of Tension Between Correspondence and Coherence in Sentencing
- Conclusion
- Some Conjectures About Competence
- Epilogue
- Notes
- References
- Indexes
- Author Index
- A
- B
- C
- D
- E
- F
- G
- H
- I
- J
- K
- L
- M
- N
- O
- P
- Q
- R
- S
- T
- U
- V
- W
- Y
- Z
- Subject Index
- A
- B
- C
- D
- E
- F
- G
- H
- I
- J
- K
- L
- M
- N
- O
- P
- Q
- R
- S
- T
- U
- V
- W
- Z
System requirements
File format: PDF
Copy-Protection: Adobe-DRM (Digital Rights Management)
System requirements:
- Computer (Windows; MacOS X; Linux): Install the free reader Adobe Digital Editions prior to download (see eBook Help).
- Tablet/smartphone (Android; iOS): Install the free app Adobe Digital Editions or the app PocketBook before downloading (see eBook Help).
- E-reader: Bookeen, Kobo, Pocketbook, Sony, Tolino and many more (only limited: Kindle).
The file format PDF always displays a book page identically on any hardware. This makes PDF suitable for complex layouts such as those used in textbooks and reference books (images, tables, columns, footnotes). Unfortunately, on the small screens of e-readers or smartphones, PDFs are rather annoying, requiring too much scrolling.
This eBook uses Adobe-DRM, a „hard” copy protection. If the necessary requirements are not met, unfortunately you will not be able to open the eBook. You will therefore need to prepare your reading hardware before downloading.
Please note: We strongly recommend that you authorise using your personal Adobe ID after installation of any reading software.
For more information, see our eBook Help page.