
Handbook of Warning Intelligence
Description
Alles über E-Books | Antworten auf Fragen rund um E-Books, Kopierschutz und Dateiformate finden Sie in unserem Info- & Hilfebereich.
The Handbook of Warning Intelligence was written during the cold war and was classified for 40 years. Originally written as a manual for training intelligence analysts, it explains the fundamentals of intelligence analysis and forecasting, discusses military analysis, as well as the difficulties in understanding political, civil, and economic analysis and assessing what it means for analysts to have "warning judgment."
Much of what Grabo wrote in her book seems to appear in many of the numerous commission reports that emerged after the 9/11 attacks. However, her book was written in response to the "surprise attack" of the Soviet Union's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1968. According to the author, that event was no surprise. And while analysts have to take some of the blame for their failure to strenuously present their case that the threat was real and imminent, what occurred was a failure by policymakers to listen to the warning intelligence reports that were written at the time.
In these last chapters, Grabo discusses scenarios where the United States will need to take action, especially describing Soviet indicators of such action. She also talks on how to influence policymakers to take, or not take, action based on intelligence. After the Soviet Union fell, the government was hesitant to release this information-especially considering what's going on with Putin today.
More details
Other editions
Additional editions

Persons
Jan Goldman is Professor of Intelligence and National Security Studies at Tiffin University. He has been an analyst and educator in the intelligence and academic communities for over 30 years. He is the founding editor of a series of textbooks for the intelligence profession, Security Professionals Intelligence Education Series-SPIES (Rowman and Littlefield Publishers), and an academic journal focusing on ethics and intelligence. His most recent publications include War on Terror Encyclopedia: From the Rise of Al Qaeda to 9/11 and Beyond, and The Central Intelligence Agency: An Encyclopedia of Covert Operations, Intelligence Gathering, and Spies. He received his doctorate from George Washington University.
Content
Foreword to the previous edition
Author's note to the original edition
Part I: Why Warning Intelligence And What Is It? Some Fundamentals
Chapter 1: General Nature of the Problem
Chapter 2: Definitions of Terms and Their Usage
Chapter 3: What Warning Is and Is Not
Chapter 4: Warning and Collection
Chapter 5: Intentions versus Capabilities
Part II: Organization and Tools of the Trade
Chapter 6: Problems of Organization and Management
Chapter 7: Indicator lists
Chapter 8: The Compiling of Indications
Chapter 9: Can Computers 'Hel p?
Part III: Introduction to the Analytical Method
Chapter 10: Some Fundamentals of Indications Analysis
Chapter 11: Some Specifics of the Analytical Method.
Chapter 12: What Makes a Good Warning Analyst?
Part IV: Specific Problems of Military Analysis
Chapter 13: Importance of Military Indications
Chapter 14: Order of Bottle Analysis in Crisis Situations
Chapter 15: Analysis of Mobilization
Chapter 16: Logistics is the Queen of Battles
Chapter 17: Other Factors in Combat Preparations
Chapter 18: Coping with Extraordinary Military Developments
Part V: Specific Problems of Political, Civil and Economic Analysis
Chapter 19: Importance of Political Factors for Warning
Chapter 20: Basic Political Warning -- A Problem of Perception
Chapter 21: Some Specific Factors in Political Warning
Chapter 22: Economic Indicators
Chapter 23: Civil Defense
Chapter 24: Security, Counter-Intelligence and Agent Preparations
Part VI: Some Major Analytical Problems
Chapter 25: Warning from the Totality of Evidence
Chapter 26: The Impact on Warning of Circumstances Leading to War
Chapter 27: Reconstructing the Enemy's Decision Making Process
Chapter 28: Assessing the Timing of Attack Chapter 29: Deception: Can We Cope With It?
The following chapters are new to this edition.
Part VII: Problems of Particular Types Of Warfare
Chapter 30: Analysis with Hostilities Already in Progress
Chapter 31: Problems Peculiar to Guerrilla Warfare and "Wars of Liberation"
Chapter 32: Hypothetical Problems of the Coming of World War III
Part VIII: Reaching And Reporting The Warning Judgment
Chapter 33: Vital Importance of the Judgment
Chapter 34: What Does the Policy Maker Need, and Want to Know?
Chapter 35: How to Write Indications or Warning Items
Chapter 36: Assessing Probabilities
Chapter 37: Some Major Factors Influencing Judgments and Reporting
Chapter 38: Most Frequent Errors in the Judgment and Reporting Process
Part IX: Conclusions
Chapter 39: A Summing Up, With Some Do's and Don'ts for Analysts and Supervisors
About the Authors
System requirements
File format: PDF
Copy-Protection: Adobe-DRM (Digital Rights Management)
System requirements:
- Computer (Windows; MacOS X; Linux): Install the free reader Adobe Digital Editions prior to download (see eBook Help).
- Tablet/smartphone (Android; iOS): Install the free app Adobe Digital Editions or the app PocketBook before downloading (see eBook Help).
- E-reader: Bookeen, Kobo, Pocketbook, Sony, Tolino and many more (only limited: Kindle).
The file format PDF always displays a book page identically on any hardware. This makes PDF suitable for complex layouts such as those used in textbooks and reference books (images, tables, columns, footnotes). Unfortunately, on the small screens of e-readers or smartphones, PDFs are rather annoying, requiring too much scrolling.
This eBook uses Adobe-DRM, a „hard” copy protection. If the necessary requirements are not met, unfortunately you will not be able to open the eBook. You will therefore need to prepare your reading hardware before downloading.
Please note: We strongly recommend that you authorise using your personal Adobe ID after installation of any reading software.
For more information, see our eBook Help page.