The Science of Conjecture
Evidence and Probability before Pascal
Published on 26. September 2015
520 pages
978-1-4214-1881-0 (ISBN)
Description
How did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.
The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.
The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
Baltimore
United States
Target group
Professional and scholarly
File size
3,02 MB
ISBN-13
978-1-4214-1881-0 (9781421418810)
DOI
10.1353/book.40454
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Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
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Book
09/2015
Johns Hopkins University Press
€48.90
Shipment within 10-20 days
Book
10/2002
Johns Hopkins University Press
€42.95
Article exhausted; check different version
Book
09/2001
Johns Hopkins University Press
€86.96
Article not available for order
Person
James Franklin is a professor in the School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of New South Wales.
Content
Preface
Chapter 1: The Ancient Law of Proof
Chapter 2: The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and the Inquisition
Chapter 3: Renaissance Law
Chapter 4: The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty
Chapter 5: Rhetoric, Logic, Theory
Chapter 6: Hard Science
Chapter 7: Soft Science and History
Chapter 8: Philosophy: Action and Induction
Chapter 9: Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature
Chapter 10: Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets
Chapter 11: Dice
Chapter 12: Conclusion
Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability
Chapter 1: The Ancient Law of Proof
Chapter 2: The Medieval Law of Evidence: Suspicion, Half-proof, and the Inquisition
Chapter 3: Renaissance Law
Chapter 4: The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty
Chapter 5: Rhetoric, Logic, Theory
Chapter 6: Hard Science
Chapter 7: Soft Science and History
Chapter 8: Philosophy: Action and Induction
Chapter 9: Religion: Laws of God, Laws of Nature
Chapter 10: Aleatory Contracts: Insurance, Annuities, and Bets
Chapter 11: Dice
Chapter 12: Conclusion
Epilogue: The Survival of Unquantified Probability
