
Innovation, Networks, and Knowledge Spillovers
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with J. Cukrowski
The chapter analyses the potential impact of technological progress in information processing on the size of retail markets. The analysis - restricted to a single commodity market with uncertain demand - shows that the ability of firms to process information and predict demand may affect the characteristics of retail markets.
The results, moreover, indicate that risk-averse firms always devote resources to demand forecasting, producers are better off trading with retailers than with final consumers, and the volume of output supplied through retail markets is greater than it would be if producers traded directly with consumers.
1 Introduction
Corporations are generating information at an exponential rate. It is three forces that are fueling the rate of growth: the use of informative technology to automate business processes, the implementation of enterprise resource planning systems, and the diffusion of information technology within the business. As the quantity of information collected and stored by corporations has soared, managers have realised that information is an enterprise's most valuable asset. It contains a record of past corporate performance.
A clear vision of the past, present and future is essential to sustain competitivity in the rapidly changing business world. The dynamic application of information often separates the success from the failures in many sectors of the economy. The interfaces between developments in information technology, retailing strategies and consumer behaviour are attracting an increasing amount of attention in the marketing and economic literature. Most of this literature either summerises recent developments or speculates about future developments and their economic and social impacts (see e.g., Webster 1994, Jeannet and Hennessey 1995, De Canio and Watkins 1998).
This present contribution takes a somewhat different stance. The view is taken that technological progress in information processing increases the number of firms operating in retail markets. The existence of retail markets and the role of retail firms are traditionally explained by spatial factors and increasing returns to scale in transportation, storage or in the acquisition and dissemination of information about the quality, range, and prices of products available (see, e.g., Heal 1980, Wilson 1975).
In many cases, such as retail trade in services or in goods which can not be transported or stored, most of these factors are irrelevant. The major shortcoming of the earlier literature on retail markets is that it attempts to view retail trade only from the supply side, and the models used have no explicit reference to demand, especially to demand uncertainty, which is natural in most markets.
This current contribution makes a modest attempt to show that retail trade (or at least part of it) may not be connected with economies of scale and that it can be explained exclusively by the rational behaviour of firms operating in a stochastic environment. Since retailers are, by definition, intermediaries between consumers and suppliers, they can serve as a buffer between suppliers and a market with demand uncertainty, and, in particular, they can bear the risk associated with demand fluctuations.
Thus, to analyse retailing convincingly one needs to explicitly model the interaction between consumers and suppliers in an uncertain environment.
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