Statistics, Data Analysis, and Decision Modeling: International Edition
International Edition
1st Edition
Published on 20. March 2013
560 pages
978-0-273-77574-4 (ISBN)
Description
For undergraduate and graduate level courses that combines introductory statistics with data analysis or decision modeling. A pragmatic approach to statistics, data analysis and decision modeling. Statistics, Data Analysis & Decision Modeling focuses on the practical understanding of its topics, allowing readers to develop conceptual insight on fundamental techniques and theories. Evans dedication to present material in a simple and straightforward fashion is ideal for student comprehension.
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04/2012
5th Edition
Pearson Education Limited
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Content
- Cover
- Contents
- Preface
- Part I: STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS
- Chapter 1 DATA AND BUSINESS DECISIONS
- Introduction
- Data in the Business Environment
- Sources and Types of Data
- Metrics and Data Classification
- Statistical Thinking
- Populations and Samples
- Using Microsoft Excel
- Basic Excel Skills
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.1
- Copying Formulas and Cell References
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.2
- Functions
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.3
- Other Useful Excel Tips
- Excel Add-Ins
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.4
- Displaying Data with Excel Charts
- Column and Bar Charts
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.5
- Line Charts
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.6
- Pie Charts
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.7
- Area Charts
- Scatter Diagrams
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.8
- Miscellaneous Excel Charts
- Ethics and Data Presentation
- Skill-Builder Exercise 1.9
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: A Data Collection and Analysis Project
- Chapter 2 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS AND DATA ANALYSIS
- Introduction
- Descriptive Statistics
- Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Data Profiles
- Categorical Data
- Numerical Data
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.1
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.2
- Data Profiles
- Descriptive Statistics for Numerical Data
- Measures of Location
- Measures of Dispersion
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.3
- Measures of Shape
- Excel Descriptive Statistics Tool
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.4
- Measures of Association
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.5
- Descriptive Statistics for Categorical Data
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.6
- Visual Display of Statistical Measures
- Box Plots
- Dot-Scale Diagrams
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.7
- Outliers
- Data Analysis Using PivotTables
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.8
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.9
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: The Malcolm Baldrige Award
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.10
- Skill-Builder Exercise 2.11
- Chapter 3 PROBABILITY CONCEPTS AND DISTRIBUTIONS
- Introduction
- Basic Concepts of Probability
- Basic Probability Rules and Formulas
- Conditional Probability
- Skill-Builder Exercise 3.1
- Random Variables and Probability Distributions
- Discrete Probability Distributions
- Expected Value and Variance of a Discrete Random Variable
- Skill-Builder Exercise 3.2
- Bernoulli Distribution
- Binomial Distribution
- Poisson Distribution
- Skill-Builder Exercise 3.3
- Continuous Probability Distributions
- Uniform Distribution
- Normal Distribution
- Skill-Builder Exercise 3.4
- Triangular Distribution
- Exponential Distribution
- Probability Distributions in PHStat
- Other Useful Distributions
- Joint and Marginal Probability Distributions
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Probability Analysis for Quality Measurements
- Chapter 4 SAMPLING AND ESTIMATION
- Introduction
- Statistical Sampling
- Sample Design
- Sampling Methods
- Errors in Sampling
- Random Sampling From Probability Distributions
- Sampling From Discrete Probability Distributions
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.1
- Sampling From Common Probability Distributions
- A Statistical Sampling Experiment in Finance
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.2
- Sampling Distributions and Sampling Error
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.3
- Applying the Sampling Distribution of the Mean
- Sampling and Estimation
- Point Estimates
- Unbiased Estimators
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.4
- Interval Estimates
- Confidence Intervals: Concepts and Applications
- Confidence Interval for the Mean with Known Population Standard Deviation
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.5
- Confidence Interval for the Mean with Unknown Population Standard Deviation
- Confidence Interval for a Proportion
- Confidence Intervals for the Variance and Standard Deviation
- Confidence Interval for a Population Total
- Using Confidence Intervals for Decision Making
- Confidence Intervals and Sample Size
- Prediction Intervals
- Additional Types of Confidence Intervals
- Differences Between Means, Independent Samples
- Differences Between Means, Paired Samples
- Differences Between Proportions
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Analyzing a Customer Survey
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.6
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.7
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.8
- Skill-Builder Exercise 4.9
- Chapter 5 HYPOTHESIS TESTING AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE
- Introduction
- Basic Concepts of Hypothesis Testing
- Hypothesis Formulation
- Significance Level
- Decision Rules
- Spreadsheet Support for Hypothesis Testing
- One-Sample Hypothesis Tests
- One-Sample Tests for Means
- Using p-Values
- One-Sample Tests for Proportions
- One Sample Test for the Variance
- Type II Errors and the Power of A Test
- Skill-Builder Exercise 5.1
- Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests
- Two-Sample Tests for Means
- Two-Sample Test for Means with Paired Samples
- Two-Sample Tests for Proportions
- Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals
- Test for Equality of Variances
- Skill-Builder Exercise 5.2
- Anova: Testing Differences of Several Means
- Assumptions of ANOVA
- Tukey-Kramer Multiple Comparison Procedure
- Chi-Square Test for Independence
- Skill-Builder Exercise 5.3
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: HATCO, Inc.
- Skill-Builder Exercise 5.4
- Chapter 6 REGRESSION ANALYSIS
- Introduction
- Simple Linear Regression
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.1
- Least-Squares Regression
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.2
- A Practical Application of Simple Regression to Investment Risk
- Simple Linear Regression in Excel
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.3
- Regression Statistics
- Regression as Analysis of Variance
- Testing Hypotheses for Regression Coefficients
- Confidence Intervals for Regression Coefficients
- Confidence and Prediction Intervals for X-Values
- Residual Analysis and Regression Assumptions
- Standard Residuals
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.4
- Checking Assumptions
- Multiple Linear Regression
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.5
- Interpreting Results from Multiple Linear Regression
- Correlation and Multicollinearity
- Building Good Regression Models
- Stepwise Regression
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.6
- Best-Subsets Regression
- The Art of Model Building in Regression
- Regression with Categorical Independent Variables
- Categorical Variables with More Than Two Levels
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.7
- Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms
- Skill-Builder Exercise 6.8
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Hatco
- Chapter 7 FORECASTING
- Introduction
- Qualitative and Judgmental Methods
- Historical Analogy
- The Delphi Method
- Indicators and Indexes for Forecasting
- Statistical Forecasting Models
- Forecasting Models for Stationary Time Series
- Moving Average Models
- Error Metrics and Forecast Accuracy
- Skill-Builder Exercise 7.1
- Exponential Smoothing Models
- Skill-Builder Exercise 7.2
- Forecasting Models for Time Series with a Linear Trend
- Regression-Based Forecasting
- Advanced Forecasting Models
- Autoregressive Forecasting Models
- Skill-Builder Exercise 7.3
- Forecasting Models with Seasonality
- Incorporating Seasonality in Regression Models
- Skill-Builder Exercise 7.4
- Forecasting Models with Trend and Seasonality
- Regression Forecasting with Causal Variables
- Choosing and Optimizing Forecasting Models Using CB Predictor
- Skill-Builder Exercise 7.5
- The Practice of Forecasting
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Energy Forecasting
- Chapter 8 INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICAL QUALITY CONTROL
- Introduction
- The Role of Statistics and Data Analysis in Quality Control
- Statistical Process Control
- Control Charts
- x- and R-Charts
- Skill-Builder Exercise 8.1
- Analyzing Control Charts
- Sudden Shift in the Process Average
- Cycles
- Trends
- Hugging the Center Line
- Hugging the Control Limits
- Skill-Builder Exercise 8.2
- Skill-Builder Exercise 8.3
- Control Charts for Attributes
- Variable Sample Size
- Skill-Builder Exercise 8.4
- Process Capability Analysis
- Skill-Builder Exercise 8.5
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Quality Control Analysis
- Part II: Decision Modeling and Analysis
- Chapter 9 BUILDING AND USING DECISION MODELS
- Introduction
- Decision Models
- Model Analysis
- What-If Analysis
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.1
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.2
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.3
- Model Optimization
- Tools for Model Building
- Logic and Business Principles
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.4
- Common Mathematical Functions
- Data Fitting
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.5
- Spreadsheet Engineering
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.6
- Spreadsheet Modeling Examples
- New Product Development
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.7
- Single Period Purchase Decisions
- Overbooking Decisions
- Project Management
- Model Assumptions, Complexity, and Realism
- Skill-Builder Exercise 9.8
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: An Inventory Management Decision Model
- Chapter 10 DECISION MODELS WITH UNCERTAINTY AND RISK
- Introduction
- Spreadsheet Models with Random Variables
- Monte Carlo Simulation
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.1
- Monte Carlo Simulation Using Crystal Ball
- Defining Uncertain Model Inputs
- Running a Simulation
- Saving Crystal Ball Runs
- Analyzing Results
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.2
- Crystal Ball Charts
- Crystal Ball Reports and Data Extraction
- Crystal Ball Functions and Tools
- Applications of Monte Carlo Simulation and Crystal Ball Features
- Newsvendor Model: Fitting Input Distributions, Decision Table Tool, and Custom Distribution
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.3
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.4
- Overbooking Model: Crystal Ball Functions
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.5
- Cash Budgeting: Correlated Assumptions
- New Product Introduction: Tornado Chart Tool
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.6
- Project Management: Alternate Input Parameters and the Bootstrap Tool
- Skill-Builder Exercise 10.7
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: J&G Bank
- Chapter 11 DECISIONS, UNCERTAINTY, AND RISK
- Introduction
- Decision Making Under Certainty
- Decisions Involving a Single Alternative
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.1
- Decisions Involving Non-mutually Exclusive Alternatives
- Decisions Involving Mutually Exclusive Alternatives
- Decisions Involving Uncertainty and Risk
- Making Decisions with Uncertain Information
- Decision Strategies for a Minimize Objective
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.2
- Decision Strategies for a Maximize Objective
- Risk and Variability
- Expected Value Decision Making
- Analysis of Portfolio Risk
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.3
- The "Flaw of Averages"
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.4
- Decision Trees
- A Pharmaceutical R&D Model
- Decision Trees and Risk
- Sensitivity Analysis in Decision Trees
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.5
- The Value of Information
- Decisions with Sample Information
- Conditional Probabilities and Bayes's Rule
- Utility and Decision Making
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.6
- Exponential Utility Functions
- Skill-Builder Exercise 11.7
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: The Sandwich Decision
- Chapter 12 QUEUES AND PROCESS SIMULATION MODELING
- Introduction
- Queues and Queuing Systems
- Basic Concepts of Queuing Systems
- Customer Characteristics
- Service Characteristics
- Queue Characteristics
- System Configuration
- Performance Measures
- Analytical Queuing Models
- Single-Server Model
- Skill-Builder Exercise 12.1
- Little's Law
- Process Simulation Concepts
- Skill-Builder Exercise 12.2
- Process Simulation with SimQuick
- Getting Started with SimQuick
- A Queuing Simulation Model
- Skill-Builder Exercise 12.3
- Queues in Series with Blocking
- Grocery Store Checkout Model with Resources
- Manufacturing Inspection Model with Decision Points
- Pull System Supply Chain with Exit Schedules
- Other SimQuick Features and Commercial Simulation Software
- Continuous Simulation Modeling
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Production/Inventory Planning
- Chapter 13 LINEAR OPTIMIZATION
- Introduction
- Building Linear Optimization Models
- Characteristics of Linear Optimization Models
- Implementing Linear Optimization Models on Spreadsheets
- Excel Functions to Avoid in Modeling Linear Programs
- Solving Linear Optimization Models
- Solving the SSC Model Using Standard Solver
- Solving the SSC Model Using Premium Solver
- Solver Outcomes and Solution Messages
- Interpreting Solver Reports
- Skill-Builder Exercise 13.1
- How Solver Creates Names in Reports
- Difficulties with Solver
- Applications of Linear Optimization
- Process Selection
- Skill-Builder Exercise 13.2
- Blending
- Skill-Builder Exercise 13.3
- Portfolio Investment
- Skill-Builder Exercise 13.4
- Transportation Problem
- Interpreting Reduced Costs
- Multiperiod Production Planning
- Skill-Builder Exercise 13.5
- Multiperiod Financial Planning
- Skill-Builder Exercise 13.6
- A Model with Bounded Variables
- A Production/Marketing Allocation Model
- How Solver Works
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Haller's Pub & Brewery
- Chapter 14 INTEGER, NONLINEAR, AND ADVANCED OPTIMIZATION METHODS
- Introduction
- Integer Optimization Models
- A Cutting Stock Problem
- Solving Integer Optimization Models
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.1
- Integer Optimization Models with Binary Variables
- Project Selection
- Site Location Model
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.2
- Computer Configuration
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.3
- A Supply Chain Facility Location Model
- Mixed Integer Optimization Models
- Plant Location Model
- A Model with Fixed Costs
- Nonlinear Optimization
- Hotel Pricing
- Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models
- Markowitz Portfolio Model
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.4
- Evolutionary Solver for Nonsmooth Optimization
- Rectilinear Location Model
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.5
- Job Sequencing
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.6
- Risk Analysis and Optimization
- Combining Optimization and Simulation
- A Portfolio Allocation Model
- Using OptQuest
- Skill-Builder Exercise 14.7
- Basic Concepts Review Questions
- Problems and Applications
- Case: Tindall Bookstores
- Appendix
- Index
- A
- B
- C
- D
- E
- F
- G
- H
- I
- J
- K
- L
- M
- N
- O
- P
- Q
- R
- S
- T
- U
- V
- W
- X
- Z
