Hybrid models for Hydrological Forecasting: integration of data-driven and conceptual modelling techniques

Summary 1 Introduction 11.1 Background 1.2 Flood management and forecasting 1.3 Hydrological models 1.4 Data-driven models 1.5 Objectives of the research 1.6 Terminology 1.7 Outline 2 Framework for hybrid modeling 2.1 Introduction 2.2 General considerations and assumptions 2.3 Hybrid modelling framework 2.4 Committee machines and modular models 2.5 Measuring model performance 2.6 Discussion and conclusions 3 Optimal modularization of data-driven models 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Methodology of modular modelling 3.3 Modularization using clustering (MM1) 3.4 Modularization using sub-process identification (MM2) 3.5 Modularization using time-based partitioning (MM3) 3.6 Modularization using spatial-based partitioning 3.7 Optimal combination of modularization schemes 3.8 Conclusions 4 Building data-driven hydrological models: data issues 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Case study (Our the river basin - Belgium) 4.3 Procedure of data-driven modelling 4.4 Preparing data and building a model 4.5 The problem of input variables selection 4.5.2 Selection based on Average Mutual Information (AMI) 4.6 Influence of data partitioning 4.7 Influence of ANN weight initialization 4.8 Various measures of model error 4.9 Comparing the various types of models 4.10 Discussion and conclusions 5 Time and process based modularization 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Catchment descriptions 5.3 Input variable selection 5.4 Comparison to benchmark models 5.5 Modelling process 5.6 Results and discussion 5.7 Conclusions 6 Spatial-based hybrid modelling 6.1 Introduction 6.2 HBV-M model for Meuse river basin 6.3 Methodology 6.4 Application of Scheme 1 6.5 Application of Scheme 2 6.6 Discussion 6.7 Conclusions 7 Hybrid parallel and sequential models 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Metodology and models setup 7.3 Data assimilation (error correction) 7.4 Committee and ensemble models 7.5 Forecasting scenario 7.6 Results and discussion 7.6.1 Single forecast results 7.6.2 Results on multi step forecast 7.7 Conclusions 8 Downscaling with modular models 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Fuzzy committee 8.3 Case study: Beles River Basin, Ethiopia 8.4 Beles River Basin 8.5 Methodology 8.6 Results 8.7 Conclusions 9 Conclusions and Recommendations 9.1 Hybrid modelling 9.2 Modular modelling 9.3 Downscaling with modular models 9.4 Parallel and serial modelling architectures 9.5 Data-driven modelling .9.6 Conclusion in brief