
An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis
Description
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First published in the 1970s, the classic book An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis was used by intelligence analysts to track and monitor the Communist threat. Although today's environment has changed considerably since the Cold War, intelligence analysts still need to understand the basics of intelligence analysis. The book focuses on how to do research, what qualities are needed to be an intelligence analyst, and what methods can be employed to help in producing products. To avoid politicization, intelligence analysts should strive to become more transparent in their methodology of how they arrived at their conclusions. Intelligence Research and Analysis provides several methods to assist in that end.
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Persons
Jan Goldman is the author or editor of numerous articles and books on intelligence to include Ethics of Spying: A Reader for the Intelligence Professional, and Words of Intelligence: A Dictionary. He is the editor for Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education Series.
Content
- Front Cover
- Contents
- Introduction
- 1 The Evolution and Definition of Strategic Intelligence
- Organized Warfare and the Need for Strategic Intelligence
- Sun Tzu: First among Few Writers of a Very Old Profession
- Systematic Strategic Intelligence Production Ignored: Some Hypotheses
- Precursors to the "Modem Era" in Strategic Intelligence Production
- U.S. Intelligence Organizations: Newcomers to an Old Club
- Problematic Information and the Need for Intelligence
- Purpose of Intelligence
- Forms and Components of Strategic Intelligence
- Summary
- 2 Research: A Description of the Activity and the Analyst
- Original Meaning and Modern Permutations
- Research as a Purposeful Activity
- Research as a Systematic Activity
- Research as an Activity That Contributes New Knowledge
- Intelligence Research/Academic Research: Similarities and Differences
- Time Constraints
- Control of Variables
- Adequacy of Data versus the Necessity of Reporting
- Unknown Quality of Data
- Emphasis on Prediction
- Emphasis on Security
- Utility
- Characteristics of the Intelligence Researcher
- Reasoning Ability
- Accuracy
- Intellectual Honesty
- Open-Mindedness
- Skepticism
- Detachment
- Patience, Diligence, and Perseverance
- Imagination
- Summary
- 3 Types of Inquiry and the Nature of Proof
- Descriptive Research
- Nature of Proof in Descriptive Research
- Nature of Proof in Predictive Research
- Theory Validation in a Conflict Situation
- Models and the Scientific Method
- The Scientific Method in Nonscientific Research
- Predictive Model Validation in Intelligence Research
- Semantic Problems of Technical Terms
- Summary
- 4 The Relation of Induction and Deduction to Theory Building in Intelligence Research
- Defining Induction
- Defining Deduction
- Induction and Deduction in the Hypothetico-Deductive Process
- Summary
- 5 Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition
- Defining the Problem: Sources and Origins of Research Projects
- Is There a Need?
- Defining Boundaries: A Scope
- Terms of Reference
- Operational Definitions
- Broad Topics or Limited Topics: Determining the Feasibility of the Approach
- Testing the Limits of Time
- Capabilities and Interests of the Researcher
- Feasibility: The All-Inclusive Issue
- Problem Definition: The First but Not Final Phase of the Planning Activity
- Summary
- 6 Planning the Research Program: Locating Information
- Primary and Secondary Sources
- Intentional and Unintentional Transmitters of Facts
- Data Sources and Potential for Bias
- Sources of Research Data: People, Objects, Emanations, and Records
- People
- Objects
- Emanations
- Records
- Summary
- 7 Foundations of Analysis: Some Basic Concepts
- Analysis
- Induction and Deduction: A Short Review
- Seven General Rules for Verification
- Causality and Correlation
- Canons of Causality
- "Quantitative" and "Qualitative" Analysis: A Nebulous Distinction
- Summary
- 8 Classification: A Basic Step in Analysis
- Classification in Science and Intelligence
- Why Classify?
- Coding: A Basic Type of Classification
- Two Meanings of Classify
- The Steps in Classification
- Testing the Classification System
- Classifications as Abstracts of Reality with Parts Deleted
- Summary
- 9 Basic Quantitative Techniques for Research and Analysis
- Statistical Analysis
- Mathematical Analysis
- Descriptive Statistics
- Frequency Distributions
- Measures of Central Tendency
- Measures of Dispersion
- An Example of the Use of Descriptive Statistics
- Sampling Theory
- Random Sampling
- Stratified Sampling
- Introduction to Probability
- Probability Distributions
- Normal Distribution
- Binomial Distribution
- Exponential Distribution
- Summary
- 10 Descriptive Analysis Methodologies
- Analogy: The Perennial Analytic Model
- Link Analysis
- Sociometry
- Game Theory
- War Gaming
- Linear Programming
- Regression and Correlation
- Graphic Depictions as Aids to Analysis
- Utility Curves
- Bar Graphs for Comparison
- Terrain Profiling
- Trend Analysis
- Summary
- 11 Prediction, Forecasting, and Haruspicy
- Types of Phenomena and Their Relationship to Forecasting
- Probabilistic Statements and Their Relationship to Types of Phenomena
- Assumptions-Pragmatic and Problematic
- Delphi Techniques
- Generation of Alternative Futures
- Extrapolation
- Bayesian Analysis
- Probability Diagrams
- Psychohistorical and Psycholinguistic Analysis
- Morphological Analysis
- Models and Model Building
- Cybernetic Models and System Dynamics as Aids in Forecasting
- Summary
- 12 Preparing the Report
- Format
- Use Outlines Appropriately
- Schedule Work Sessions
- Avoid Interruptions
- Use the Active Rather Than Passive Voice
- Use Simple Sentences
- Write at a Level Appropriate for the Readers
- Footnotes and Bibliographies
- Review and Revision
- Summary
- 13 An Example of a Small-Scale Intelligence Study
- Background and Origin of the Problem
- Planning the Research Program: Problem Definition
- Hypothesis Formulation
- Data Collection
- Analysis and Findings
- Validation
- About the Author and Editor
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