
Agent-Based Approaches in Economic and Social Complex Systems VI
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Content
1.1 - Preface [Seite Preface]
- 5 [Seite 5]
1.2 - Committees and Chairs of AESCS'09 [Seite Committees and Chairs of AESCS'09]
- 7 [Seite 7]
1.3 - Contents [Seite Contents]
- 9 [Seite 9]
1.4 - Part I Agent-Based Financial Markets [Seite 11]
1.4.1 - Comprehensive Analysis of Information Transmission Among Agents: Similarity and Heterogeneity of Collective Behavior [Seite 12]
1.4.1.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 12]
1.4.1.2 - 2 Literature Survey [Seite 14]
1.4.1.3 - 3 Model and Methods [Seite 15]
1.4.1.4 - 4 Empirical Analysis [Seite 18]
1.4.1.5 - 5 Conclusions [Seite 25]
1.4.1.6 - References [Seite 26]
1.4.2 - Examining the Effects of Traders' Overconfidence on Market Behavior [Seite 27]
1.4.2.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 27]
1.4.2.2 - 2 The Model [Seite 29]
1.4.2.2.1 - 2.1 Market Structure [Seite 29]
1.4.2.2.2 - 2.2 Learning of Traders [Seite 30]
1.4.2.3 - 3 Simulations [Seite 32]
1.4.2.4 - 4 Conclusion [Seite 38]
1.4.2.5 - References [Seite 38]
1.5 - Part II Financial Forecasting and Investment [Seite 40]
1.5.1 - Short Time Correction to Mean Variance Analysis in an Optimized Two-Stock Portfolio [Seite 41]
1.5.1.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 41]
1.5.1.2 - 2 Mean-Variance Analysis for the Long Time Scale [Seite 43]
1.5.1.3 - 3 Short Term Correction [Seite 44]
1.5.1.4 - 4 Decision Mechanism [Seite 45]
1.5.1.5 - 5 Simulation Result [Seite 46]
1.5.1.6 - 6 Conclusion [Seite 50]
1.5.1.7 - References [Seite 50]
1.5.2 - Exchange Rate Forecasting with Hybrid Genetic Algorithms [Seite 52]
1.5.2.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 52]
1.5.2.2 - 2 Methodology and Data Description [Seite 54]
1.5.2.2.1 - 2.1 Genetic Algorithms [Seite 54]
1.5.2.2.2 - 2.2 Particle Swarm Optimization [Seite 55]
1.5.2.2.3 - 2.3 Back Propagation Network [Seite 56]
1.5.2.2.4 - 2.4 Variables and Data Normalization [Seite 57]
1.5.2.3 - 3 Experiment Design [Seite 57]
1.5.2.4 - 4 Experiment Results [Seite 59]
1.5.2.4.1 - 4.1 Comparing the Forecasting Results by Three Criteria [Seite 59]
1.5.2.4.2 - 4.2 Comparison of the Forecast Results by Monthly Exchange Rate [Seite 61]
1.5.2.5 - 5 Conclusion and Suggestions [Seite 62]
1.5.2.6 - References [Seite 62]
1.6 - Part III Cognitive Modeling of Agents [Seite 64]
1.6.1 - Learning Backward Induction: A Neural Network Agent Approach [Seite 65]
1.6.1.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 65]
1.6.1.2 - 2 Methodology [Seite 66]
1.6.1.2.1 - 2.1 The Class of Games [Seite 66]
1.6.1.2.2 - 2.2 Introduction to Neural Networks [Seite 67]
1.6.1.2.3 - 2.3 Simulations, Models and Heuristics [Seite 69]
1.6.1.2.4 - 2.4 Performance Testing [Seite 70]
1.6.1.3 - 3 Results [Seite 71]
1.6.1.3.1 - 3.1 Comparison of NN Topologies [Seite 71]
1.6.1.3.2 - 3.2 Comparison of NNs to Standard Classification Algorithms and Heuristics [Seite 71]
1.6.1.3.3 - 3.3 Detailed Analysis of bold0mu mumu equation1 Agents' Performance [Seite 73]
1.6.1.3.4 - 3.4 Subgame and Truncation Consistency [Seite 73]
1.6.1.3.5 - 3.5 Agent Heterogeneity [Seite 74]
1.6.1.4 - 4 Conclusion [Seite 74]
1.6.1.5 - A Technical Presentation of the NN Backpropagation Algorithm [Seite 75]
1.6.1.6 - References [Seite 77]
1.6.2 - Cognitive-Costed Agent Model of the Microblogging Network [Seite 78]
1.6.2.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 78]
1.6.2.2 - 2 Data Analysis [Seite 79]
1.6.2.3 - 3 Model [Seite 82]
1.6.2.3.1 - 3.1 Simple Reciprocal Model [Seite 82]
1.6.2.3.2 - 3.2 Reciprocal Model with Cognitive Cost [Seite 83]
1.6.2.4 - 4 Discussion and Conclusions [Seite 86]
1.6.2.5 - References [Seite 87]
1.7 - Part IV Complexity and Policy Analysis [Seite 88]
1.7.1 - Landscape Analysis of Possible Outcomes [Seite 89]
1.7.1.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 89]
1.7.1.2 - 2 Landscape Analysis of Possible Outcomes [Seite 91]
1.7.1.3 - 3 Case Example [Seite 93]
1.7.1.3.1 - 3.1 Model [Seite 93]
1.7.1.3.1.1 - 3.1.1 Sales Division and Salespersons [Seite 93]
1.7.1.3.1.2 - 3.1.2 Organizational Behavior [Seite 94]
1.7.1.3.1.3 - 3.1.3 Evaluation System [Seite 94]
1.7.1.3.1.4 - 3.1.4 Organizational Learning [Seite 94]
1.7.1.3.2 - 3.2 Simulation [Seite 95]
1.7.1.3.2.1 - 3.2.1 Verification and Validation [Seite 95]
1.7.1.3.2.2 - 3.2.2 Experimental Design [Seite 95]
1.7.1.3.2.3 - 3.2.3 Result [Seite 96]
1.7.1.4 - 4 Discussion [Seite 97]
1.7.1.4.1 - 4.1 Analysis of Uncertainties [Seite 97]
1.7.1.4.2 - 4.2 Evaluation and Scope [Seite 98]
1.7.1.5 - 5 Summary and Future Study [Seite 99]
1.7.1.6 - References [Seite 99]
1.7.2 - The Flow of Information Through People's Network and Its Effect on Japanese Public Pension System [Seite 101]
1.7.2.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 101]
1.7.2.2 - 2 Basics [Seite 102]
1.7.2.2.1 - 2.1 The Function for Agent to Agent Interactions [Seite 102]
1.7.2.2.2 - 2.2 Three Basic Network Models [Seite 105]
1.7.2.3 - 3 Choice of Network Model that Fit Well in Real People's Network [Seite 105]
1.7.2.4 - 4 Put the Information on the Agent-to-Agent Network [Seite 107]
1.7.2.5 - 5 The Effect of Releasing the Information and Its Expansion on Japanese Public Pension System [Seite 108]
1.7.2.5.1 - 5.1 The Execution of Simulation [Seite 108]
1.7.2.5.2 - 5.2 Simulation Results [Seite 109]
1.7.2.5.2.1 - 5.2.1 The Altered Distribution in Agent's Attitude Score [Seite 109]
1.7.2.5.2.2 - 5.2.2 Investigating the Reasons for the Differences from ``Agent's Links'' [Seite 109]
1.7.2.5.2.3 - 5.2.3 Investigating the Reasons for the Differences from Agent's ``Betweeness Centrality'' [Seite 114]
1.7.2.5.2.4 - 5.2.4 The Relationships Between Information Flow and Pension Premium Fund [Seite 115]
1.7.2.5.2.5 - 5.2.5 Additional Simulation [Seite 116]
1.7.2.6 - 6 Conclusion and Future Works [Seite 118]
1.7.2.7 - References [Seite 118]
1.7.3 - Identification of Voting with Individual's Feet Through Agent-Based Modeling [Seite 120]
1.7.3.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 120]
1.7.3.2 - 2 Related Work [Seite 121]
1.7.3.2.1 - 2.1 Social Phenomenon of Migration [Seite 121]
1.7.3.2.2 - 2.2 Studies About VWF [Seite 122]
1.7.3.3 - 3 Model Description [Seite 123]
1.7.3.3.1 - 3.1 Government Agent Model [Seite 123]
1.7.3.3.1.1 - 3.1.1 Basic Concepts of the Model [Seite 123]
1.7.3.3.1.2 - 3.1.2 Budget Distribution Strategies [Seite 124]
1.7.3.3.2 - 3.2 Inhabitant Agent Model [Seite 124]
1.7.3.3.3 - 3.3 How the Agent-Simulator Works [Seite 125]
1.7.3.4 - 4 Experiments and Discussions [Seite 126]
1.7.3.4.1 - 4.1 Experimental Results [Seite 127]
1.7.3.4.1.1 - 4.1.1 Statistics of the Experiments [Seite 127]
1.7.3.5 - 5 Proposal of Multiple-Layer Modeling [Seite 131]
1.7.3.5.1 - 5.1 Issues of the Current VWIF Model [Seite 131]
1.7.3.5.2 - 5.2 Framework of MLM [Seite 131]
1.7.3.5.3 - 5.3 On Agents' Action Rules in the MLM Environment [Seite 132]
1.7.3.6 - 6 Concluding Remarks [Seite 132]
1.7.3.7 - References [Seite 133]
1.8 - Part V Agent-Based Modeling of Good Societies [Seite 134]
1.8.1 - Communities, Anti-Communities, Pan-Community as Social Order [Seite 135]
1.8.1.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 135]
1.8.1.2 - 2 The Friend Selection Strategies based on Attribute and Reputation in Group (FSS-ARG) [Seite 136]
1.8.1.3 - 3 Evolutionary Simulation of Peace [Seite 138]
1.8.1.4 - 4 Emergence of Four Types of Social States [Seite 140]
1.8.1.5 - 5 Discussions [Seite 144]
1.8.1.6 - References [Seite 145]
1.8.2 - Bayesian Analysis Method of Time Series Data in Greenhouse Gas Emissions Trading Market [Seite 146]
1.8.2.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 146]
1.8.2.2 - 2 Analytical Methods of Time Series Data [Seite 147]
1.8.2.2.1 - 2.1 Overview of DFT [Seite 147]
1.8.2.2.2 - 2.2 BAM [Seite 148]
1.8.2.2.3 - 2.3 Classification Method Using Distribution [Seite 149]
1.8.2.3 - 3 Model [Seite 150]
1.8.2.3.1 - 3.1 Model of Participant Nations in Emissions Trading [Seite 150]
1.8.2.3.2 - 3.2 Compliance Mechanism [Seite 152]
1.8.2.4 - 4 Experiments: Comparison of DFT and BAM [Seite 153]
1.8.2.4.1 - 4.1 Setting [Seite 153]
1.8.2.4.2 - 4.2 Experiment Results [Seite 154]
1.8.2.5 - 5 Discussion [Seite 156]
1.8.2.6 - 6 Conclusion [Seite 157]
1.8.2.7 - References [Seite 157]
1.8.3 - Large Scale Crowd Simulation of Terminal Station Area When Tokai Earthquake Advisory Information Is Announced Officially [Seite 159]
1.8.3.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 159]
1.8.3.2 - 2 A Framework of the Simulation [Seite 160]
1.8.3.2.1 - 2.1 Characteristics of the Model Employed in the Research [Seite 160]
1.8.3.2.2 - 2.2 An Outline of the Model and Framework of the Simulation [Seite 161]
1.8.3.3 - 3 Production Design of LSCSver.1.0 [Seite 161]
1.8.3.3.1 - 3.1 Details of the Model [Seite 161]
1.8.3.3.2 - 3.2 Assessment of the Shortest Distance [Seite 163]
1.8.3.3.3 - 3.3 Rules Concerning Movement of Pedestrian Agents [Seite 163]
1.8.3.3.4 - 3.4 Rules for Route Selection by Pedestrian Agents [Seite 164]
1.8.3.4 - 4 Simulation Analysis [Seite 165]
1.8.3.4.1 - 4.1 Rules for Route Selection by Pedestrian Agents [Seite 165]
1.8.3.4.2 - 4.2 Results Analysis [Seite 165]
1.8.3.4.2.1 - 4.2.1 Measurement Data [Seite 167]
1.8.3.5 - 5 Conclusion [Seite 171]
1.8.3.6 - References [Seite 171]
1.9 - Part VI Miscellany [Seite 173]
1.9.1 - Boundary Organizations: An Evaluation of Their Impact Through a Multi-Agent System [Seite 174]
1.9.1.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 174]
1.9.1.2 - 2 Boundary Organizations [Seite 175]
1.9.1.3 - 3 Methodology [Seite 177]
1.9.1.4 - 4 Results [Seite 180]
1.9.1.5 - 5 Conclusion [Seite 184]
1.9.1.6 - References [Seite 185]
1.9.2 - A Bibliometric Study of Agent-Based Modeling Literature on the SSCI Database [Seite 186]
1.9.2.1 - 1 Introduction [Seite 186]
1.9.2.2 - 2 Agent-Based Modeling Description [Seite 187]
1.9.2.3 - 3 Overall Analysis of ABM literature [Seite 187]
1.9.2.4 - 4 Bradford's Law and Journal Literature [Seite 191]
1.9.2.5 - 5 Lotka's Law and Author Productivity [Seite 193]
1.9.2.5.1 - 5.1 Distribution of Scientific Productivity of Authors with Equality of Chances of Participation [Seite 193]
1.9.2.5.2 - 5.2 Lotka's Law [Seite 193]
1.9.2.6 - 6 Conclusion [Seite 195]
1.9.2.7 - References [Seite 195]
1.10 - Author Index [Seite 196]
1.11 - Keyword Index [Seite 197]
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