Extreme Events

Name: Extreme Events | Observations, Modeling, and Economics
Brand: Wiley-Blackwell
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Observations, Modeling, and Economics

Mario Chavez Michael Ghil Jaime Urrutia-Fucugauchi(Editor)

Wiley-Blackwell (Publisher)

Published on 24. November 2015

438 pages

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978-1-119-15703-8 (ISBN)

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Mario Chavez is a scientist at the Institute of Engineering in Mexico. He has served as a Secretary (1981-1983) and Vice President (1991-1993) of the Mexican Society for Earthquake Engineering AC, Network Director accelerograph and Seismological Research Institute for Engineering, Guadalajara, Mexico (1993-1998 ), and also as an External Adviser of the Secretary of Environment and Natural Resources of the Government of Mexico (2001-2003). He has published 30 articles in journals and 65 conferences, national and international, as well as 76 technical studies. He has directed 12 theses of Bachelor, Masters and 7 Doctoral. His research interests include seismic risk in urban and industrial environment, numerical modeling with supercomputer seismic waves propagation, and extreme events and their economic impact.

Michael Ghil is a distinguished research Professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and the Director of the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics at UCLA. He joined the Dynamic Meteorology Laboratory (Ecole Normale Supérieure (ENS)) in the year 2002 as a distinguished Professor of Geosciences. He is a highly cited author in the field of geosciences with his research focus on the physics of climate change on all time scales. He is the author of a dozen books and over 275 refereed articles (including the Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA) and book chapters in the area of geophysics and climate dynamics. His research interests include atmospheric and oceanic sciences, climate dynamics, dynamical and complex systems theory, estimation theory, extreme events and prediction, geophysical fluid dynamics, macroeconomics, numerical and statistical methods, remote sensing and applications. He was awarded the 2011 Alfred Wegener Medal from the European Geosciences Union and has been recognized as an honorary member of the Union in 2012.

Jaime Urrutia Fucugauchi is the Director of the Institute of Geophysics at National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM) since 1997 and is a Professor at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM since 1984. He is also the Chairman, Department of Geomagnetism and Geophysical Exploration at the Institute of Geophysics, UNAM (since 1984). He is a former President of the Mexican Geophysical Union (1985-1987). He has also served as an Associate Editor of the Journal of Geophysical Research (1993-1995) (American Geophysical Union). He has over 200 research articles in the field. His research interests include Geo- and Paleo-magnetism, Magnetostratigraphy, Paleogeography and Tectonics, Paleoclimatic and Environmental Evolution and Exploration Geophysics.

Content

Contributors vii Preface xi Acknowledgments xiii 1 Introduction Mario Chavez, Michael Ghil, and Jaime Urrutia?]Fucugauchi 1 Part I: Fundamentals and Theory 7 2 Applications of Extreme Value Theory to Environmental Data Analysis Gwladys Toulemonde, Pierre Ribereau, and Philippe Naveau 9 3 Dynamical Systems Approach to Extreme Events Catherine Nicolis and Gregoire Nicolis 23 4 Skill of Data?]based Predictions versus Dynamical Models: A Case Study on Extreme Temperature Anomalies Stefan Siegert, Jochen Bröcker, and Holger Kantz 35 5 Detecting and Anticipating Climate Tipping Points Timothy M Lenton and Valerie N Livina 51 6 Understanding ENSO Variability and Its Extrema: A Delay Differential Equation Approach Michael Ghil and Ilya Zaliapin 63 Part II: Extreme Events in Earth's Space Environment 79 7 Drivers of Extreme Space Weather Events: Fast Coronal Mass Ejections Alexander Ruzmaikin, Joan Feynman, and Stilian Stoev 81 8 Chicxulub Asteroid Impact: An Extreme Event at the Cretaceous/Paleogene Boundary Jaime Urrutia?]Fucugauchi and Ligia Pérez?]Cruz 93 Part III: Climate and Weather Extremes 113 9 Weather and Climatic Drivers of Extreme Flooding Events over the Midwest of the United States Andrew W Robertson, Yochanan Kushnir, Upmanu Lall, and Jennifer Nakamura 115 10 Analysis of the Hazards and Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma Edgar Mendoza, Rodolfo Silva, Cecilia Enriquez?]Ortiz, Ismael Mariño?]Tapia, and Angélica Felix 125 11 Observations and Modeling of Environmental and Human Damage Caused by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Kazuhisa Goto, Fumihiko Imamura, Shunichi Koshimura, and Hideaki Yanagisawa 137 12 Extreme Capillary Wave Events Under Parametric Excitation Michael G Shats, Hua Xia, and Horst Punzmann 153 Part IV: Extreme Events in the Solid Earth 163 13 A Review of Great Magnitude Earthquakes and Associated Tsunamis along the Guerrero, Mexico Pacific Coast: A Multiproxy Approach María?]Teresa Ramírez?]Herrera, Néstor Corona, and Gerardo Suárez 165 14 Landslide Risk to the Population of Italy and Its Geographical and Temporal Variations Paola Salvati, Mauro Rossi, Cinzia Bianchi, and Fausto Guzzetti 177 15 An Extreme Event Approach to Volcanic Hazard Assessment Servando De la Cruz?]Reyna and Ana Teresa Mendoza?]Rosas 195 Part V: Socioeconomic Impacts of Extreme Events 205 16 Economic Impact of Extreme Events: An Approach Based on Extreme Value Theory Richard W Katz 207 17 Extreme Magnitude Earthquakes and Their Direct Economic Impacts: A Hybrid Approach Mario Chavez, Eduardo Cabrera, Silvia Garcia, Erik Chavez, Mike Ashworth, Narciso Perea, and Alejandro Salazar 219 18 Tropical Cyclones: From the Influence of Climate to Their Socioeconomic Impacts Suzana J Camargo and Solomon M Hsiang 303 19 Impacts of Natural Disasters on a Dynamic Economy Andreas Groth, Patrice Dumas, Michael Ghil, and Stéphane Hallegatte 343 Part VI: Prediction and Preparedness 361 20 Extreme Tsunami Events in the Mediterranean and Its Impact on the Algerian Coasts Lubna A Amir, Walter Dudley, and Brian G McAdoo 363 21 High?]Tech Risks: The 2011 Tôhoku Extreme Events Heriberta Castaños and Cinna Lomnitz 381 22 On Predictive Understanding of Extreme Events: Pattern Recognition Approach; Prediction Algorithms; Applications to Disaster Preparedness Vladimir Keilis?]Borok, Alexandre Soloviev, and Andrei Gabrielov 391 Index 407

CONTRIBUTORS

Lubna A. Amir
Department of Geophysics
Faculty of Earth Sciences
University of Earth Sciences and Technology
Bab Ezzouar, Algiers, Algeria

Mike Ashworth
Scientific Computing Department
STFC Daresbury Laboratory
Sci-Tech Daresbury
Warrington, UK

Cinzia Bianchi
Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Perugia, Italy

Jochen Bröcker
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems
Dresden, Germany
Department of Mathematics and Statistics
University of Reading
Reading, UK

Eduardo Cabrera
Institute of Advanced Research Computing
School of Engineering and Computing Sciences
Durham University
Durham, UK

Suzana J. Camargo
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
Palisades, NY, USA

Heriberta Castaños
Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Erik Chavez
Centre for Environmental Policy
Imperial College London
London, UK

Mario Chavez
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
México, DF, México

Néstor Corona
Centro de Estudios en Geografía Humana
El Colegio de Michoacán
Michoacán, México

Servando De la Cruz-Reyna
Instituto de Geofísica
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Walter Dudley
Marine Science Department
University of Hawaii at Hilo
Hilo, HI, USA

Patrice Dumas
Environmental Research & Teaching Institute
Ecole Normale Supérieure
Paris, France
Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement
Nogent-sur-Marne, France
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
Nogent-sur-Marne, France

Cecilia Enriquez-Ortiz
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Angélica Felix
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Joan Feynman
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA, USA

Andrei Gabrielov
Departments of Mathematics & Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
Purdue University
West Lafayette, IN, USA

Silvia Garcia
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
México, DF, México

Michael Ghil
Geosciences Department, Environmental Research & Teaching Institute (CERES-ERTI), and Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL)
Ecole Normale Supérieure
Paris, France
Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics & Planetary Physics
University of California
Los Angeles, CA, USA

Kazuhisa Goto
Disaster Control Research Center
Graduate School of Engineering
Tohoku University
Sendai, Japan
Present address: International Research Institute of Disaster Science
Tohoku University
Sendai, Japan

Andreas Groth
Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
University of California
Los Angeles, CA, USA
Environmental Research & Teaching Institute
Ecole Normale Supérieure
Paris, France

Fausto Guzzetti
Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Perugia, Italy

Stéphane Hallegatte
Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement
Nogent-sur-Marne, France
The World Bank
Climate Change Group
Washington, DC, USA

Solomon M. Hsiang
Goldman School of Public Policy
University of California Berkeley
Berkeley, CA, USA

Fumihiko Imamura
Disaster Control Research Center
Graduate School of Engineering
Tohoku University
Sendai, Japan
Present address: International Research Institute of Disaster Science
Tohoku University
Sendai, Japan

Holger Kantz
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems
Dresden, Germany

Richard W. Katz
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Boulder, CO, USA

Vladimir Keilis-Borok┼
Institute of Geophysics & Planetary Physics and Department of Earth & Space Sciences
University of California
Los Angeles, CA, USA
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory & Mathematical Geophysics
Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, Russia
┼Deceased (2013).

Shunichi Koshimura
Disaster Control Research Center
Graduate School of Engineering
Tohoku University
Sendai, Japan
Present address: International Research Institute of Disaster Science
Tohoku University
Sendai, Japan

Yochanan Kushnir
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
New York, USA

Upmanu Lall
Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering
Columbia University
New York, USA

Timothy M. Lenton
Earth System Science
College of Life and Environmental Sciences
University of Exeter
Exeter, UK

Valerie N. Livina
National Physical Laboratory
Teddington,
Middlesex, UK

Cinna Lomnitz
Instituto de Geofísica
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Ismael Mariño-Tapia
Departamento de Recursos del Mar
CINVESTAV-Mérida
Yucatán, México

Brian G. McAdoo
Department of Geography
Vassar College
Poughkeepsie, NY, USA

Edgar Mendoza
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas
Instituto de Geofísica
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Jennifer Nakamura
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Columbia University
New York, USA

Philippe Naveau
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement LSCE-IPSL-CNRS
Gif-sur-Yvette, France

Catherine Nicolis
Institut Royal Météorologique de Belgique
Brussels, Belgium

Gregoire Nicolis
Interdisciplinary Center for Nonlinear Phenomena and Complex Systems
Université Libre de Bruxelles
Brussels, Belgium

Narciso Perea
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
México, DF, México

Ligia Pérez-Cruz
Programa Universitario de Perforaciones en Océanos y Continentes
Departamento de Geomagnetismo y Exploración Geofísica
Instituto de Geofísica
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Horst Punzmann
Research School of Physics and Engineering
The Australian National University
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

María-Teresa Ramírez-Herrera
Laboratorio Universitario de Geofísica Ambiental (LUGA) and Instituto de Geografía
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Pierre Ribereau
Institut de Mathématiques et de Modélisation de Montpellier - UMR 5149
Montpellier, France

Andrew W. Robertson
International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
Columbia University
New York, USA

Mauro Rossi
Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Perugia, Italy
Dipartimento di Scienze della Terra
Università degli Studi di Perugia
Perugia, Italy

Alexander Ruzmaikin
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA, USA

Alejandro Salazar
Instituto de Geofísica
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)
México, DF, México

Paola Salvati
Istituto di Ricerca per la Protezione Idrogeologica
Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche
Perugia, Italy

Michael G. Shats
Research School of Physics and Engineering
The Australian National University
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

Stefan Siegert
Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems
Dresden, Germany
College of Engineering
Mathematics and Physical Sciences
University of Exeter
Exeter, UK

Rodolfo Silva
Instituto de Ingeniería
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

Alexandre Soloviev
Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory & Mathematical Geophysics
Russian Academy of Sciences
Moscow, Russia

Stilian Stoev
Department of Statistics
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI, USA

Gerardo Suárez
Instituto de Geofísica
Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México
México, DF, México

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Extreme Events

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