
Population and Development Issues
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This book analyzes the relationships between the key demographic variables (fertility, morbidity and mortality, migration, etc.) and major development issues, notably education, employment, health, gender, social and geographical inequalities and climate concerns. Bringing together contributions from specialists across every field, it presents empirical data simply and clearly alongside theoretical reflections.
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Introduction: Population in the Development Paradigm xi
Yves CHARBIT
Chapter 1 The Precursors: The Mercantilists, Malthus, Marx 1
Yves CHARBIT
1.1 Theories and doctrines 1
1.2 Mercantilism, the population doctrine and policy of royal power 2
1.2.1 Mercantilism and the modern state 2
1.2.2 A populationist doctrine 4
1.2.3 The inevitable historical decline of mercantilism 5
1.3 Malthus, the theorist of demo-economic growth 6
1.3.1 The consequences of demographic dynamics: poverty or increased agricultural production? 6
1.3.2 Demo-economic growth, industrialization and well-being 9
1.3.3 The political instrumentalization of demography in the past and in our days 11
1.4 Marx yesterday and today 12
1.4.1 Precarious labor in the agricultural sector 15
1.4.2 The relevance of Marx 16
1.5 Conclusion 18
1.6 References 19
Chapter 2 Education, Population and Development 23
Nicole BELLA and Yves CHARBIT
2.1 Introduction 23
2.2 Education statistics and demography 24
2.2.1 Enrollment in primary education 25
2.2.2 Enrollment in secondary education 25
2.2.3 Higher education, still a luxury despite its expansion 29
2.2.4 Girls, the major beneficiaries of educational progress over the last decades 30
2.2.5 Education and demography in Asia 32
2.3 Education, population and development 43
2.3.1 Education and long-term economic growth 43
2.3.2 Education and social development 44
2.3.3 Education and politics 45
2.3.4 Education and conflict: a complex relationship 46
2.3.5 Education and urbanization 47
2.4 Conclusion: education and demography 48
2.5 References 48
Chapter 3 Employment and the Informal Economy 53
Jacques CHARMES
3.1 Introduction 53
3.2 The concept of informal economy and its assessment methods 54
3.2.1 The evolution of concepts 55
3.2.2 The evolution of measurements 57
3.2.3 The extent of employment in the informal economy worldwide 58
3.3 Long-term employment trends in the informal economy in Northern Africa 60
3.3.1 A wide variety of approaches 60
3.3.2 The current situation 64
3.4 Conclusion: which transition policies from the informal to the formal economy? 72
3.5 References 74
Chapter 4 Gender Inequalities 77
Serge RABIER
4.1 Current theories and debates 77
4.2 Health and reproductive rights at the heart of demography: economic investment and anthropological breakthroughs 78
4.2.1 Global data 78
4.2.2 Infant and maternal health 79
4.2.3 HIV-AIDS and other sexually transmitted diseases 81
4.2.4 The emergence of new challenges related to the epidemiological transition 81
4.2.5 Gender stereotypes and patriarchy 82
4.2.6 Anthropological discrimination 83
4.2.7 Economic discrimination 84
4.2.8 Public health policies 84
4.3 Gender determinants at the heart of educational supply and demand in Africa 86
4.3.1 Primary education 87
4.3.2 Secondary education 89
4.3.3 University education 89
4.3.4 Anthropological obstacles 92
4.3.5 Institutional, economic and social obstacles 94
4.4 Conclusion 101
4.5 References 101
Chapter 5 Sex Selection: Public Policies to Balance the Scales? 105
Christophe Z GUILMOTO and Laura RAHM
5.1 Introduction 105
5.2 Prevalence and evolution of SRB trends 107
5.2.1 Sex imbalances at birth across the world 107
5.2.2 Determinants of sex imbalances at birth 109
5.3 Public policies against gender-biased sex selection 111
5.3.1 Policy evolution: from denial to recognition, to global action 111
5.3.2 Policy typology 113
5.3.3 Policy impact: evidence and knowledge gaps 116
5.4 Case study: impact of policy on the SRB in Armenia and Vietnam 117
5.4.1 Armenia 117
5.4.2 Vietnam 122
5.5 Discussion and conclusion 127
5.6 References 128
Chapter 6 Poverty and Inequalities 133
Yves CHARBIT, Mustapha OMRANE and Zakari OUMAROU
6.1 Measuring and analyzing poverty and inequalities 133
6.1.1 Defining poverty 134
6.1.2 Measuring poverty 135
6.2 The evolution of poverty 137
6.2.1 Means of subsistence around 2015 137
6.2.2 The evolution of extreme poverty in the world 138
6.2.3 Health and poverty 139
6.3 Poverty in Niger 144
6.3.1 The sociodemographic characteristics of households 146
6.3.2 Poverty and the labor market 148
6.3.3 Food insecurity in 2011 149
6.4 Conclusion: toward a new poverty indicator? 152
6.5 References 153
Chapter 7 Mental Health: An Underestimated Development Issue 155
Véronique PETIT
7.1 Introduction 155
7.2 Inclusion of mental health in overall health 156
7.2.1 Genealogy of an international mobilization 156
7.2.2 The global morbidity burden 158
7.2.3 Lack of mobilization and investment in mental health 160
7.2.4 The costs of mental disorders 163
7.2.5 Mental health in the demographic and epidemiological transitions 165
7.3 Senegal, an emblematic case of the situation in African countries 167
7.3.1 Colonial heritage: the Fann school 167
7.3.2 The care supply: insufficient and unevenly distributed 171
7.3.3 Therapeutic pathways and adherence to treatment 174
7.4 Conclusion: a fight that still has to be waged 176
7.5 References 177
Chapter 8 Migration Remittances and Development 183
Serge FELD
8.1 Introduction 183
8.2 Volume and trends in remittance movements 184
8.2.1 The global level 184
8.2.2 The regional level and the national level 187
8.3 The consequences for households: poverty, health, education 195
8.3.1 Poverty reduction 195
8.3.2 Poverty reduction 197
8.3.3 Consumption expenditure or investment? A false dilemma 198
8.3.4 Health and education 201
8.4 Conclusion: remittances, a development policy instrument 204
8.5 References 205
Chapter 9 Climate Change and Demography 213
Sabine HENRY
9.1 Introduction 213
9.2 Climate change as analyzed by the IPCC 214
9.2.1 The IPCC approach 214
9.2.2 Summary of the main results of IPCC reports 216
9.2.3 The geography of climate change impact 217
9.2.4 Scenarios for the future 218
9.3 The impacts of climate change on demographic factors 220
9.3.1 Fertility and its inevitable inertia 221
9.3.2 Climate-related mortality and morbidity 223
9.3.3 Environmental migrations: a problem to be solved or a solution to be explored? 226
9.4 Trapped populations 229
9.5 Conclusion 232
9.6 References 233
Chapter 10 Population Policies 237
John F MAY
10.1 Introduction 237
10.2 Population policies: processes and mechanisms 240
10.2.1 Goals and values 240
10.2.2 Demographic data and variables amenable to interventions 241
10.2.3 Policy levers and instruments 242
10.2.4 Population policy process 243
10.2.5 Policy actors and stakeholders 244
10.2.6 Policies, priorities and methods 246
10.2.7 Funding and monitoring and evaluation 247
10.3 Population policies: empirical evidence 248
10.3.1 Asia: China, Indonesia and Iran 249
10.3.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 252
10.3.3 More developed countries 253
10.4 Conclusion 255
10.5 References 257
Conclusion: Is Population Really the Problem? 261
Yves CHARBIT
List of Authors 279
Index 281
Introduction
Population in the Development Paradigm
Yves CHARBIT
CEPED, University of Paris, France
I.1. Population and development
This book assumes that the reader has some background knowledge of demographic dynamics. In fact, these have been studied in a complementary volume1, the chapters of which focused on major demographic variables (fertility and its regulation, especially nuptiality, contraception and abortion; mortality and morbidity; and finally, international migrations), as well as on their interactions. The current prevailing paradigm of the demographic transition and a more recent theoretical development - the demographic dividend - completed this earlier volume.
In this work, population is considered in relation to major development issues. Within the scope of this brief introduction, it is impossible to account for the immense field of theories analyzing the relationships between population and development. A simple empirical illustration, based on four single indicators, is therefore proposed: one related to development and the other three to demography. The United Nations database (UN DESA 2019) provides five-yearly average values for these indicators, calculated since 1950 for all countries, continents and sub-regions.
Figure I.1. Population growth rate (in %) by income level (2015-2020 average) source: UN DESA (2019)
The development indicator provided by the World Bank ranks countries according to their income level: high (73 countries), upper-middle (54 countries), lower-middle (50 countries) and low (32 countries). In July 2020, the income brackets, in dollars, were as follows: low-income: <1,036; lower-middle income: 1,036-4,045; upper-middle income: 4,046-12,535; high-income: >12,535. The three demographic indicators are population growth rate (Figure I.1), infant mortality (the number of deaths in the last year among children under one year) (see Figure I.2) and the number of children per woman (see Figure I.3). It is important to note that there is a strong relationship between development - as measured by a country's income level - and the three demographic indicators. When wealth increases, the growth rate decreases, while infant mortality and fertility decrease. For the first two indicators, the decrease is regular across different income brackets. In contrast, low fertility in high-income countries (2.6 children per woman) diverges from the other three categories, whose comparable levels (between 5.5 and 6.6) are twice as high.
Figure I.2. Infant mortality by income level (2015-2020 average) source: UN DESA (2019)
Figure I.3. Number of children per woman by income level (2015-2020 average) source: UN DESA (2019)
Beyond this purely empirical initial observation, the broad question of the factors underpinning the relationships between population and development must be addressed through two questions. How can development reduce mortality? How can it reduce fertility?
I.1.1. Development and the decline in infant mortality
Infant mortality is particularly sensitive to poverty and, more generally, to family living conditions. It is important to draw a distinction between two levels, that of macroeconomic development, which is analyzed at the state level, and that of social development, where the relevant unit of analysis is the family.
At the state level, development enables investment in health, whereas in the absence of development, this is generally not prioritized over other forms of investment. Improved healthcare provision results from the creation of infrastructure: hospitals, health centers and mobile teams to support the most isolated populations. Indeed, in the absence of development, healthcare services are concentrated in large cities, to the detriment of small towns and rural areas. The creation or improvement of transportation, as well as access to drinking water and a functioning sewage and wastewater disposal system all contribute to the reduction of gastrointestinal infections. Finally, if there are more healthcare workers who are better trained and better paid, healthcare can improve significantly.
Figure I.4. a) Drying of surgical gloves. b) Wastewater disposal problem. source: Charbit For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/charbit/population.zip
At the family level, development influences the demand for healthcare. There are a number of positive impacts on children's health from increased incomes. This could be achieved provided that wealth created through development is not monopolized by certain groups at the expense of the mass of the population who could be left in poverty; and further, that families have sufficient resources to be able to devote part of them to their children's health, in terms of vaccination, medical visits, purchase of medicines, etc. Another positive outcome is the quantitative and qualitative improvement of food: a higher daily calorie intake and increased animal protein in the diet helps to strengthen children's resistance to disease, thereby increasing their chances for survival. For all of these reasons, infant mortality decreases when economic development occurs. Figure I.4 illustrates the wider problem of infection risks, particularly in urban areas: on the left, poor aseptic techniques (drying of surgical gloves in front of a health center in Guinea); on the right, issues with wastewater disposal (Senegal).
I.1.2. Development and the decline in fertility
As with infant mortality, the development of infrastructure contributes to the reduction of fertility in developing countries, particularly if governments are committed to implementing family planning programs that promote the use of modern contraception methods. However, availability is not sufficient if it does not correspond to demand from the population, because the acceptance of contraception by women and couples involves a fundamentally economic and sociological dimension. Indeed, decline in fertility generally occurs in a context of economic and social development, characterized by a change in women's status: education, urbanization and the development of the workforce gradually help them to move away from their traditional role in the reproductive sphere. It becomes socially acceptable to use contraception to restrict fertility, especially in cases where the four characteristics of western societies are met: a secularized mentality, confidence in science and technology and, above all, women's decision-making autonomy.
With economic and social development, women will see their status change and, over time, will no longer limit their aspirations to reproduction. Educated women oppose the traditional roles assigned to them and are instead most interested in personal development. Moreover, since education allows them to access jobs in the modern sector, they will have a salary and will therefore be able to negotiate greater autonomy with respect to their husband, and with respect to their parents in the case of single women. On the other hand, (non-religious) schooling systems convey more egalitarian models, putting these same women in contact with the western nuclear family model, more so than their illiterate counterparts. Finally, from a "technical" point of view, educated women, with better knowledge of their physiology, use modern contraception methods more effectively. For all of these reasons, educated women will be pioneers in their society: some of them are co-decision makers with their husbands on the use of contraception; others often use contraception against the will of their husband and relatives, who see it as a dangerous factor of sexual emancipation.
Figure I.5. a) A pioneer woman. b) A restricted nuclear family source: UNFPA
Figure I.5(a) illustrates - almost to the point of caricature - the profile of these pioneering, educated, urban women who are well integrated into the modern employment sector, and whom others imitate in a process of diffusion. Figure I.5(b) shows that the process in Iran has led to a restricted nuclear family model. Currently, fertility is almost at replacement level (2.15 children per woman in 2020), despite a strict natalist Islam, which has long been hostile toward contraception, abortion and female labor.
This brief mention of the relationship between development and health, and between development and education, certainly does not exhaust the complexity of interactions. The chapters that follow detail the complex and wide-ranging nature of "development issues".
I.2. Major development issues
Chapter 1 is devoted to prominent authors of the past who, between the 16th and the 19th centuries, laid the foundations for the relationships between population and development. The seven chapters that follow deal with major issues: education (Chapter 2), employment (Chapter 3), gender inequalities (Chapter 4), poverty and social inequalities (Chapter 5), migration and transfers (Chapter 6), climate change (Chapter 9) and population policies (Chapter 10). Chapter 5 addresses the choice of a child's sex before birth and complements Chapter 4. Chapter 8 focuses on the intergenerational transfers...
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