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Name: Man Inside | A European Journey Through Two Crises
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A European Journey Through Two Crises

Marco Buti Martin Sandbu(Author)

EGEA Spa - Bocconi University Press

Published on 1. November 2021

376 pages

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978-88-31322-36-2 (ISBN)

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Biography
Title
Copyright
Table of Contents
Acknowledgements
Foreword, by Adam Tooze
1 European Economic Policymaking under Duress: My Own Account
1 Florence, Oxford, Brussels
2 The Pioneers, the Architects and the Builders
3 The circumstances: the global financial crisis, the rise of populism and the pandemic
4 The role of the European Commission in policy design and coordination
5 Some lessons for the future
Europe 2008-2021: A Chronology
Part A. EMU: Past, Present and Future
2 The First Ten Years of the Euro
1 Introduction
2 Uncertain beginnings
3 A decade of success
4 The challenges ahead
3 The Commission's Proposals for Stronger EU Economic Governance
1 What are the main goals?
2 What is new and why do we need it?
3 Would the new tools have made a difference?
4 Will it work this time?
4 Stronger EU Economic Governance: A Response to the Critics
1 Common analysis but diverging conclusions
2 The big picture
3 Enforcement, yes please. Sanctions, no thanks
4 What is not "empty and useless"
5 Macroeconomic policy analysis in flux
5 Smoothing Economic Shocks in the Eurozone: The Untapped Potential of the Financial Union
1 The importance of resilience to shocks in the Eurozone
2 Cross-border risk-sharing channels
3 What is the size of the various risk-sharing channels in the Eurozone and the US?
4 Conclusion
6 Completing EMU
1 EMU has been reformed but is still in an unsustainable equilibrium
2 Completing Financial Union to increase risk-sharing and reduce legacy risks
3 Achieving a more integrated Economic and Fiscal Union
4 Strengthening Eurozone institutions and accountability
5 Conclusions
7 Deepening EMU Requires a Coherent and Well-Sequenced Package
1 Building on the progress made
2 Preserving financial stability is of the utmost importance
3 A stone that could hit many birds
4 Conclusion
8 The Case for a Central Fiscal Capacity in EMU
1 Introduction
2 Is there evidence of large cyclical fluctuations in EMU, including country-specific components?
3 Does private risk-sharing via the completion of Banking Union and CMU eliminate the case for a central fiscal capacity?
4 Do national fiscal stabilisers within the SGP suffice to smooth the remaining shocks?
5 Does a central fiscal capacity necessarily entail moral hazard and permanent transfers?
6 Conclusions
9 The Euro, a Tale of 20 Years: The Priorities Going Forward
1 Coming of age
2 The Maastricht assignment
3 The Eurozone throughout the crisis: weaknesses of EMU's architecture come to the fore
4 Reforms during the crisis, but job still not completed
5 Conclusion
10 Should the Eurozone Be Less Intergovernmental?
1 Intergovernmentalism versus Supranationalism
2 The "new" economic governance framework
3 Is the new intergovernmental model successful?
4 The way forward: recreating the "veil of ignorance"
Part B. Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Rules
11 Fiscal Austerity and Policy Credibility
1 Introduction
2 The debate on fiscal austerity: a stylised representation
3 How the EU fiscal framework fits in the policy debate
4 Conclusion
12 Fiscal Policy in Europe: Searching for the Right Balance
1 Introduction
2 Allegations and rejoinders
3 Broader implications
13 What is a "Responsible" Fiscal Policy Today for Europe?
1 Introduction
2 Navigating in a grey reality
3 Heading north or south?
4 Conclusion
14 Designing Fiscal Policy for Steady, Enduring Growth
1 Why fiscal stabilisation?
2 The importance of automatic stabilisers
3 How to improve automatic stabilisers?
4 Conclusion
15 Fiscal Space and Low Interest Rates: A Eurozone Perspective
1 The basic arithmetic of debt, growth and interest rates
2 What is the empirical evidence and prospects?
3 Eurozone specificities
4 Which "debt anchors" in the EU?
5 Conclusions
16 Why We Need a Positive Fiscal Stance for the Eurozone and What It Means
1 Introduction
2 Why a positive fiscal stance for the Eurozone?
3 The desirable fiscal stance from a Eurozone standpoint
4 Toward a better composition of the Eurozone fiscal stance
5 Concluding remarks
17 Potential Output and EU Fiscal Surveillance
1 Introduction
2 The structural focus of the SGP's "second generation" fiscal rules has improved EU fiscal surveillance
3 The issue of potential output unobservability and recent criticisms of the EU's output gap estimates
4 Are recent criticisms of the EU's CAM based on solid empirical evidence?
5 Dealing with potential output unobservability in EU fiscal surveillance must involve an element of constrained judgement
6 Conclusion
Part C. The Political Economy of European Integration
18 Can Governments Implement Structural Reforms and Yet Be Re-Elected?
1 Juncker's curse
2 Raw evidence
3 Finance, reform, and elections
4 Conclusions
19 Reform and Be Re-Elected: Evidence from the Post-Crisis Period
1 Juncker's curse again
2 The record before and after the crisis
3 What lessons can we draw?
4 Conclusion
20 A Consistent Trinity for the Eurozone
1 Post-crisis "inconsistent trinities"
2 Structural reforms to safeguard European welfare systems
3 Reclaiming macroeconomic policy space for greater adjustment symmetry
4 Effectively combatting systemic financial sector vulnerabilities
5 Overcoming the policy conflicts
21 Delivering the Eurozone "Consistent Trinity"
1 Introduction
2 Changing challenges: structural reforms and rotation of demand
3 Eurozone governance coming of age
22 Europe's Incompatible Political Trinities
1 EU economic policy coordination: where we come from
2 The EU after the financial crisis: policy challenges and their political consequences
3 Overcoming inconsistent trinities to achieve a new political synthesis
23 European Integration and Populism: Addressing Dahrendorf's Quandary
1 The tide has turned
2 A populist backlash with economic and cultural roots
3 The EU and European integration as an easy target for populist onslaught
4 Some guiding principles for a new positive EU narrative
Part D. Real Economy and Convergence During the "Great Recession"
24 Slow but Steady? External Adjustment Within the Eurozone Starts Working
1 Introduction
2 Wage and competitiveness adjustment, where do we stand?
3 What's next?
4 What is missing?
5 Conclusions
25 From a Vicious to a Virtuous Circle in the Eurozone: The Time Is Ripe
1 The need to focus on a strategic response to the crisis
2 A five-point strategy to ensure a good equilibrium
3 Weak economic growth remains the key challenge
26 How to Make Europe's Incipient Recovery Durable: End Policy Uncertainty
1 A subdued and fragile recovery
2 A targeted policy response to make the recovery durable
3 Conclusion
27 How to Make Europe's Incipient Recovery Durable: A Rejoinder
1 Introduction
2 Is fiscal consolidation at the root of the current investment-growth differentials between the Eurozone and the US?
3 Have Eurozone-specific sources of uncertainty affected growth?
4 Do structural reforms boost growth in a low-growth environment?
5 To conclude
28 Lacklustre Investment in the Eurozone: Is There a Puzzle?
1 On the importance of investment for the Eurozone economy
2 It's the accelerator, stupid! Or is it?
3 How to unleash investment spending?
29 Lacklustre Investment in the Eurozone: The Policy Response
1 Explaining investment weakness
2 The need of a comprehensive policy strategy
3 The Investment Plan for Europe: the ?300 billion question and more
4 A key complement: removing sectoral and other financial and non-financial barriers
30 Three Waves of Convergence: Can Eurozone Countries Start Growing Together Again?
1 Introduction
2 The faces of economic convergence
3 The three waves of convergence in EMU
4 Can Eurozone countries start growing together again?
31 Overcoming Eurozone Wage Inertia
1 Can we have price stability, Eurozone rebalancing, and uncoordinated competitiveness developments?
2 The current coordination framework and its rationale
3 Why coordination helps
4 Conclusion
Part E. Eastern Enlargement, Global Governance and the Euro
32 Five Years after the Enlargement of the EU
1 New members and old members
2 The EU made a difference, but not every country took full advantage
3 A three-pronged strategy to safeguard achievements
4 Conclusion
33 Trade Shocks, Growth, and Resilience: Eastern Europe's Adjustment Tale
1 The unusual nature of the EU11
2 Global value chains and FDI inflows
3 Economic responses during the crisis: a model-based simulation
4 Adjustment to shocks
5 Policy options
34 "Winning the Peace": The Challenge for the G20
1 Introduction
2 The G20 is lagging behind on its growth ambition
3 Necessary conditions for G20 to deliver growth
4 Reformulating international economic policy coordination
35 Governing a Fragmented World Economy: Towards Inclusive Multilateralism
1 Clouds are gathering on the outlook
2 Institutional, economic and social fragmentation remain pervasive
3 What kind of multilateralism?
4 What should be the role of Europe?
5 Conclusions
36 The International Role of the Euro: From Monetary Independence to Monetary Sovereignty
1 The international role of the euro: time to revisit the benign neglect
2 The international role of the euro in figures: untapped potential?
3 Determinants of the global use of a currency: where does the euro stand?
4 Towards a stronger international use of the euro
5 Conclusion
Part F. Between Two Crises
37 Right Here, Right Now: The Quest for a More Balanced Policy Mix
1 Introduction
2 A better policy set-up is needed to lift economies back to growth
3 There is a strong case for a more supportive fiscal policy in the Eurozone
4 Now is the time to invest in stronger and more sustainable economies for the future
38 Economic Policy in the Rough: A European Journey
1 Introduction
2 Moment one: Latvia and the other Baltics - a prequel to the crisis
3 Moment two: the Deauville meeting on 18 October 2010
4 Moment three: the Toronto G20 Summit in June 2010
5 Moment four: Greece - a fiscal and a structural crisis
6 Moment five: Mario Draghi's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium in August 2014
7 Key lessons for future work on the Economic and Monetary Union
39 A Tale of Two Crises: Lessons from the Financial Crisis to Prevent the Great Fragmentation
1 COVID-19: a tragedy with huge economic costs
2 Preventing the Great Fragmentation: lessons from the financial crisis
3 The European response: Next Generation EU
4 Stronger political integration ahead?
40 Veto Player Theory and the Governance of the Recovery and Resilience Facility
1 The Recovery and Resilience Facility impossible trinity
2 The governance of the national plans
3 The veto player theory: single and multiple veto players
4 Veto players and the governance of the RRF: theory and practice
5 Final remarks
41 The Legacy of the Pandemic: How COVID-19 Is Reshaping Economic Policy in the EU
1 The EU: a history of resilience
2 The COVID economic policy response
3 How macroeconomics has changed
4 The different features of the COVID-19 crisis
5 Policy learning from the financial crisis
6 Getting the EU governance right
7 Making sure the COVID response works - looking at Member States
8 Conclusions - post-COVID shaping factors
42 A Curiosum: When Dunning-Kruger Meets Carlo M. Cipolla at the Time of COVID-19
Postscript: The Value of "Just in Case" Policymaking by Martin Sandbu
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