
Brazil in Transition
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Analyzing the last fifty years of Brazil's history, the authors explain how the nation's beliefs, centered on social inclusion yet bound by orthodox economic policies, led to institutions that altered economic, political, and social outcomes. Brazil's growth and inflation became less variable, the rule of law strengthened, politics became more open and competitive, and poverty and inequality declined. While these changes have led to a remarkable economic transformation, there have also been economic distortions and inefficiencies that the authors argue are part of the development process.
Brazil in Transition demonstrates how a dynamic nation seized windows of opportunity to become a more equal, prosperous, and rules-based society.
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Content
List of Tables xiii
Preface xv
Abbreviations xvii
Part I. An Overview of Brazil in Transition: Beliefs, Leadership, and Institutional Change 1
Chapter 1. Introduction 3
Economic Development and Critical Transitions 3
Brazil: This Time for Real? 7
A Sketch of the Conceptual Framework 14
Analytical Narratives and Economic Development 16
Road Map for the Book 19
Chapter 2. A Conceptual Dynamic for Understanding Development 24
Beliefs, Leadership, Dominant Network, and Windows of Opportunity 24
Difference in Difference in Changing Beliefs 28
Overview of Dominant Network, Beliefs, and Institutions in Brazil from 1964 to 2014 33
1964-1984 33
1985-1993 36
1994-2014 38
Summary 39
Part II. Introduction to the Case Study of Brazil, 1964-2014 41
Identifying Beliefs 45
Appendix: A Primer on the Brazilian Political System 50
Chapter 3. From Disorder to Growth and Back: The Military Regime (1964-1984) 54
From Chaos to a Short Period of Order 54
From Order to Unsustainable Growth 59
The Miracle Fades 64
Back to Disorder 67
The Decline of Developmentalism 70
Chapter 4. Transition to Democracy and the Belief in Social Inclusion (1985-1993) 71
A New Belief Emerges 71
The Transition to Democracy 72
Codifying Beliefs: The Constitution of 1988 76
The Constitution-Making Process 78
The Constitution's Delegation of Powers to the President 87
Back to Uncertainty and Chaos 90
Failures of the Brazilian Economic Plans before the Real 91
The Collor Government: Great Hope, Huge Disappointment 93
Chapter 5. Cardoso Seizes a Window of Opportunity (1993-2002) 97
The Real Plan 99
Early Institutional Deepening: Constitutional Amendments 103
Coalition Management under Cardoso 107
Asserting Fiscal Control over States 108
Staying the Course against the Early Opposition to the Real Plan 110
Sustaining Stability in the Face of External Shocks 116
Cardoso's Second Term: Combining Macro Orthodoxy with Social Inclusion 117
The Reassertion of Presidential Fiscal Authority 119
Conclusions 120
Chapter 6. Deepening Beliefs and Institutional Change (2002-2014) 122
The Uncertain Transition 122
Continuity in Change 126
Deepening the Social Contract 128
Checks and Balances vs. Strong Presidential Powers 138
The New Economic Matrix and Dilma's Policy Switch 150
Beliefs? Really? . . . Really! 154
The Messy Process of Dissipative Inclusion 161
Conclusion 165
Part III. A General Inductive Framework for Understandin Critical Transitions 169
Chapter 7. A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Critical Transitions 171
Understanding Critical Transitions 172
How Does Our Framework Fit in the Literature? 173
The Building Blocks of Our Conceptual Framework 176
Windows of Opportunity 176
Dominant Network 177
Beliefs 180
Leadership 186
Institutions 189
Economic and Political Outcomes 190
Dynamics 191
Argentina: An Illustrative Use of the Framework 199
The Camelot Years: 1912-1930 200
Electoral Fraud and the Rise of Perón: 1930-1946 201
Instability Is the Rule: Oscillations between Populism and Military Rule: 1946-Present 204
Concluding Remarks 207
Chapter 8. Conclusion 209
Better and Worse at the Same Time 210
Assessing the Framework 214
Brazil and the Critical Transition 216
Afterword 221
References 227
Index 243
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This eBook uses Watermark-DRM, a „soft” copy protection. This means that there are no technical restrictions to prevent illegal distribution. However, there is a personalised watermark embedded in the eBook that can be used to identify the purchaser of the eBook in the event of misuse and to provide evidence for legal purposes.
For more information, see our eBook Help page.