
Quantitative Business Valuation
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Content
- Quantitative Business Valuation: A Mathematical Approach for Today's Professionals, Second Edition
- Contents
- List of Tables and Figures
- Introduction
- Acknowledgments
- Part I: Forecasting Cash Flow
- Chapter 1: Cash Flow: A Mathematical Derivation
- Introduction
- The Mathematical Model
- Analysis of the Mathematical Model
- Summary
- References
- Chapter 2: Forecasting Cash Flow: Mathematics of the Payout Ratio
- Introduction
- The Mathematics
- Forecasting Gross Cash Flow Is Incorrect
- Conclusion
- References
- Chapter 3: Using Regression Analysis
- Introduction
- Forecasting Costs and Expenses
- Performing Regression Analysis
- Use of Regression Statistics to Test the Robustness of the Relationship
- Problems with Regression Analysis for Forecasting Costs
- Using Regression Analysis to Forecast Sales
- Autocorrelation in Time Series Analysis
- Application of Regression Analysis to the Guideline Company (GC) Methods
- Summary
- References
- Chapter 4: Annuity Discount Factors and the Gordon Model
- Introduction
- ADF with End-of-Year Cash Flows
- Midyear Cash Flows
- Starting Periods Other Than Year 1
- Periodic Perpetuity Factors (PPFs): Perpetuities for Periodic Cash Flows
- ADFs in Loan Mathematics
- Relationship of the Gordon Model to the Price/Earnings and Price/Sales Ratios
- The Bias in Annual (versus Monthly) Discounting Is Immaterial
- Conclusions
- References
- Appendix 4A: Mathematical Appendix
- Introduction
- The ADF with Stub Periods (Fractional Years)
- Table A4.3: Loan Amortization
- Conclusion
- Part II: Calculating Discount Rates
- Chapter 5: Discount Rates as a Function of Log Size
- Research Included in the First Edition
- Table 5.1: Analysis of Historical Stock Returns
- Application of the Log Size Model
- Discussion of Models and Size Effects
- Industry Effects
- The Wedge between Public and Private Firm Valuations
- Satisfying Revenue Ruling 59-60
- Summary and Conclusions
- References
- Appendix 5A: Automating Iteration UsingNewton's Method
- Appendix 5B: Mathematical Appendix
- What Does the Exponential Relationship Mean?
- Appendix 5C: Abbreviated Review and Use
- Introduction
- Regression #1: Return versus Standard Deviation of Returns
- Regression #2: Return versus Log Size
- The Wedge between Public and Private Firm Valuations
- Satisfying Revenue Ruling 59-60
- Summary and Conclusions
- Chapter 6: Arithmetic versus Geometric Means: Empirical Evidence and Theoretical Issues
- Introduction
- Theoretical Superiority of the Arithmetic Mean
- Empirical Evidence of the Superiority of the Arithmetic Mean
- Indro and Lee Article
- References
- Chapter 7: An Iterative Valuation Approach
- Introduction
- Equity Valuation Method
- Invested Capital Approach
- Log Size
- Summary
- References
- Part III: Adjusting for Control and Marketability
- Chapter 8: Adjusting for Levels of Control and Marketability
- Introduction
- The Value of Control and Adjusting for Level of Control
- Discount for Lack of Marketability (DLOM)
- Conclusion
- References
- Appendix 8A: Developing the Discount Formulas
- Mathematical Analysis of the Discount-Calculating Partial Derivatives
- Part IV: Putting It All Together
- Chapter 9: Empirical Testing of Abrams's Valuation Theory
- Introduction
- Table 9.1: Log Size for 1938-1986
- Table 9.2: Reconciliation to the IBA Database
- Calculation of DLOM
- Interpretation of the Error
- Conclusion
- References
- Chapter 10: Measuring Valuation Uncertainty and Error
- Introduction
- Measuring Valuation Uncertainty
- Measuring the Effects of Valuation Error
- Summary and Conclusions
- Reference
- Part V: Litigation
- Chapter 11: Demonstrating Expert Bias
- Introduction
- Market Methods
- A Balanced DCF Valuation
- Summary
- Chapter 12: Lost Inventory and Lost Profits Damage Formulas in Litigation
- Introduction
- Commentary to Table 12.1: Sample Damage Calculations with VM = $95
- Table 12.1B: Lost Profits Formulas Based on EBITDA for Lost Sales on Inventory Never Produced
- When Reality May Vary with Our Assumptions
- Modification of Formulas for Wholesale and Retail Businesses
- Legal Treatment
- Summary
- Reference
- Part VI: Valuing ESOPs and Buyouts of Partners and Shareholders
- Chapter 13: ESOPs: Measuring and Apportioning Dilution
- Introduction
- Definitions of Dilution
- Table 13.1: Calculation of Lifetime ESOP Costs
- The Direct Approach
- The Iterative Approach
- Summary
- References
- Appendix 13A: Mathematical Appendix
- Significance of the Results
- Chapter 14: The Trade-off in Selling to an ESOP versus an Outside Buyer
- Section 1: Introduction
- Section 2: Advantages and Disadvantages of Selling to an ESOP versus a Third Party
- Section 3: The Mathematics
- Section 4: Sample Calculations in the Tables
- Section 5: Conclusion
- References
- Chapter 15: Buyouts of Partners and Shareholders
- Introduction
- Table 15.1: Pre-and Post-Transaction Valuations
- Table 15.2: Dilution in FMV as a Result of the Partner Buyout
- Sharing the Dilution
- Conclusion
- Part VII: Probabilistic Methods
- Chapter 16: Valuing Start-Ups
- Issues Unique to Start-Ups
- Organization of the Chapter
- Part 1: First Chicago Approach
- Venture Capital Valuation Approach
- Part 2: Debt Restructuring Study
- Part 3: Exponentially Declining Sales Growth Model
- References
- Chapter 17: Monte Carlo Risk Simulation
- What Is Monte Carlo Risk Simulation?
- Comparing Simulation with Traditional Analyses
- Running a Monte Carlo Simulation Using Risk Simulator
- Using Forecast Charts and Confidence Intervals
- Tornado and Sensitivity Tools in Simulation
- Sensitivity Analysis
- Distributional Fitting: Single Variable and Multiple Variables
- Getting the Risk Simulator Software
- Chapter 18: Real Options
- Part 1: Introduction to Real Options
- Part 2: Traditional Valuation Approaches
- Part 3: Application: Real Options SLS Software
- Glossary
- About the Author
- Index
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