End Times
Elites, Counter-Elites and the Path of Political Disintegration
Published on 7. March 2024
Book
Paperback/Softback
368 pages
978-0-14-199928-9 (ISBN)
Description
THE THOUGHT BOOK OF THE YEAR, THE TIMES
A GUARDIAN BOOK OF THE YEAR
'Game of Thrones-style intra-elite conflict meets big data' TLS
'Extraordinary. . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work' Bloomberg
One of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time offers a brilliant new theory of how society works
What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power?
For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works.
The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.
But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.
A GUARDIAN BOOK OF THE YEAR
'Game of Thrones-style intra-elite conflict meets big data' TLS
'Extraordinary. . . the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work' Bloomberg
One of the most iconoclastic thinkers of our time offers a brilliant new theory of how society works
What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? How do elites maintain their dominant position? And why do ruling classes sometimes suddenly lose their grip on power?
For decades, complexity scientist Peter Turchin has been studying world history like no-one else. Assembling vast databases mined from 10,000 years of human activity, and then developing new models, he has transformed the way we learn from the past. End Times is the result: a ground-breaking account of how society works.
The lessons, he argues, are clear. When the balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, income inequality surges. The rich get richer, the poor further impoverished. As more people try to join the elite, frustration with the establishment brims over, often with disastrous consequences. Elite overproduction led to state breakdown in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.
But while we are far along the path toward violent political rupture, Turchin's models also light the way to a brighter future. Drawing insight from those occasions in history where the balance was restored, End Times also points towards a different future: an escape from the patterns of the past.
Reviews / Votes
A pre-eminent digital-age seer. . . Turchin set out to discover statistical patterns in the great flood of historical data that might predict future instabilities in societies. . . a great collected narrative of human hope and human failure -- Tim Adams * Observer * From the man who predicted the rise of Trump - or someone very like him - a remarkably clear, data-driven explanation of why societies fall into crisis, and how to engineer a soft landing * Guardian * A compelling analysis of why societies fail. . . Turchin's theory represents the most persuasive analysis of the historical forces assailing society in the present -- James Marriott * The Times * Peter Turchin is among the most important writers for explaining why everything seems so unstable now. It's the end of a cycle. . . Essential reading -- Jonathan Haidt Extraordinary. . . Turchin is a practitioner of "cliodynamics," an ambitious attempt to apply complexity theory and much else to human history. End Times is the culmination of many years of highly original and innovative work -- Niall Ferguson * Bloomberg * The future-gazing guru I find the most intriguing is a former biologist called Peter Turchin who calls this decade 'the turbulent twenties' -- Helen Lewis * BBC Radio 4 * Why is the world gripped by revolutions and civil wars? This provocative book blames the elites - we just have too many of them now * Sunday Times * It would be foolish for US leaders to ignore Turchin. If nothing else, the concept of elite overproduction is a good way to explain why elite education is now so costly, competitive and damaging for would-be elite kids and adults alike -- Gillian Tett * Financial Times * Across the west, popular misery and 'elite overproduction' are fuelling crisis, argues data-driven historian Peter Turchin. . . he provides a clear theory about how we got into this mess, and how to get out of it -- David Shariatmadari * Guardian * Mr Turchin is something of a celebrity in certain circles and has piqued economists' interest in the discipline of "cliodynamics", which uses maths to model historical change * Economist *More details
Language
English
Place of publication
London
United Kingdom
Target group
Professional and scholarly
College/higher education
Product notice
Paperback (UK-B)
Dimensions
Height: 195 mm
Width: 127 mm
Thickness: 26 mm
Weight
274 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-14-199928-9 (9780141999289)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
E-Book
06/2023
Penguin Books Ltd
€14.99
Available for download
Person
Peter Turchin is Project Leader at the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna, Research Associate at University of Oxford, and Emeritus Professor at the University of Connecticut. Trained as a theoretical biologist, he is now working in the field of historical social science that he and his colleagues call Cliodynamics. Currently his main research effort is directed at coordinating CrisisDB, a massive historical database of societies sliding into a crisis - and then emerging from it. His books include Ultrasociety and Ages of Discord.