Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
Will be published approx. on 15. November 1993
Book
Hardback
348 pages
978-0-226-77488-6 (ISBN)
Description
The inability of forecasters to accurately predict the recent recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis. The volume begins with an examination of the historical performance of economic forecasts, using data collected from a quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasters from 1968 through 1990. Strengths and weaknesses of these predictions are discussed and new insights into the potential and limitations of forecasting are provided. The following three chapters use recently developed statistical techniques for predicting recessions and expansions, and examine the performance of these techniques during the 1990-91 recession. Chapter five explores why the spread between public and private interest rates has been a good predictor of real economic activity. Chapter six examines the relation between the duration of a business cycle and the likelihood of its end.
The final two chapters discuss methods for economic time series and forecasting.
The final two chapters discuss methods for economic time series and forecasting.
More details
Series
Language
English
Place of publication
Chicago
United States
Publishing group
The University of Chicago Press
Target group
College/higher education
Professional and scholarly
Dimensions
Height: 23 mm
Width: 16 mm
Thickness: 3 mm
Weight
652 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-226-77488-6 (9780226774886)
Copyright in bibliographic data is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or its licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
James H. Stock | Mark W. Watson
Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting
E-Book
04/2008
1st Edition
University of Chicago Press
€117.29
Available for download
Content
Acknowledgments Introduction James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson 1. Twenty-Two Years Of The NBER-ASA Quarterly Economic Outlook Surveys: Aspects And Comparisons Of Forecasting Performance Victor Zarnowitz And Phillip Braun Comment: Allen Sinai 2. A Procedure For Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues And Recent Experience James H. Stock And Mark W. Watson Comment: Kenneth F. Wallis 3. Estimating Event Probabilities From Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation Ray C. Fair Comment: James D. Hamilton 4. A Nine Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model Christopher A. Sims Comment: Pierre Perron 5. Why Does The Paper-Bill Spread Predict Real Economic Activity? Benjamin M. Friedman And Kenneth N. Kuttner Comment: Ben S. Bernanke 6. Further Evidence On Business Cycle Duration Dependence Francis X. Diebold, Glenn D. Rudebusch, And Daniel E. Sichel Comment: Bruce E. Hansen 7. Dynamic Index Models For Large Cross Sections Danny Quah And Thomas J. Sargent Comment: John Geweke 8. Modelling Non-Linearity Over The Business Cycle Clive W.J. Granger, Timo Terdsvirta, And Heather Anderson Comment: Andrew Harvey Contributors Author Index Subject Index