The Great Transformation
The New Stages of Economic Growth in Our Multipolar World
1st Edition
Published on 27. December 2012
Book
Hardback
528 pages
978-1-118-11665-4 (ISBN)
Description
A wide-ranging discussion of the future of the global system as we move away from U.S. dominance toward a multipolar world In The Great Transformation , Dan Steinbock explores two key effects of the current global financial crisis. On the one hand, the international Great Recession is driven by a severe cyclical downturn, which will take the fully developed economies of the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan 5-10 years to overcome. On the other hand, it is characterized by a massive secular transformation, in which the old engines of growth in the world economy are being augmented by the large, emerging economies of China, India, Brazil, and Russia, as well as Indonesia and Vietnam, the oil producing Persian Gulf, and Africa's growth centers. In this highly topical account of the ongoing global transformation, Steinbock examines the global impact of this colossal shift of economic and political power from the advanced West to the emerging East.
Presents a high-level economic discussion of the forces of global change Explores the transition of economic dominance from West to East and the potential for disruptive instability, increased risk, and rising volatility Explains and examines the stages of growth and the huge pressures they place on the global economy, political leadership, and social cohesion A fascinating study of the changing international financial hierarchy, The Great Transformation offers an insightful, and sometimes alarming, look at what lies ahead.
Presents a high-level economic discussion of the forces of global change Explores the transition of economic dominance from West to East and the potential for disruptive instability, increased risk, and rising volatility Explains and examines the stages of growth and the huge pressures they place on the global economy, political leadership, and social cohesion A fascinating study of the changing international financial hierarchy, The Great Transformation offers an insightful, and sometimes alarming, look at what lies ahead.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
New York
United States
Target group
Professional and scholarly
College/higher education
ISBN-13
978-1-118-11665-4 (9781118116654)
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Schweitzer Classification
Content
Preface Introduction Chapter 1: The Great Transformation Diffusion of Economic Power The Cyclical Narrative The Global Crisis Impact The Secular Narrative Stages of Growth, Classes of Industrializers Chapter 2: From Tradition to Modern Growth Eclipse of Tradition and Carnage Toward Social Contract Malthusian Stagnation From Tradition to Modernity Kinds of Industrializations Colonial Legacies Between Tradition and Modernity Chapter 3: Industrial Growth Preconditions for Take-Off The Process of Take-Off Drive to Technological Maturity Multipolar Turning Point Sensitivity to Initial Conditions Vicissitudes of Nationalism Chapter 4: Market Growth Drivers of Market Growth The Challenge of Debt Will China and India Suffer from Debt Crises? Will the Emerging World Suffer from Debt Crises? Waves of Innovation Severed Linkage Market Growth and Global Middle Class Consumption in the Emerging World Vicissitudes of Internationalism Global Crisis as a Transitional Growth Pain Chapter 5: Sustainability Toward Systemic Shocks The Supply Shocks The Demand Shocks Demise of the Old Energy Order United States as Advanced Energy Superpower China as Emerging Energy Superpower Global Climate Change Toward Sustainable Growth Multi-Decade Race over Resources Chapter 6: The Rise and Decline of Urban Revolution Urbanization in the Advanced West Advanced Global Cities Urban Revolution in the Emerging World Emerging Megacities From Urban Acceleration to Deceleration The Eclipse of Urbanization Chapter 7: Eclipse of Demographic Dividends A Short History of World Population and Growth Multipolar Populations Stage of Demographic Transition Next Four Decades Maturing, Stationary Population Chapter 8: Advanced Growth United States European Integration Germany France United Kingdom Italy Japan Chapter 9: Emerging Growth (I) China India Large Emerging Economies Brazil Russia Chapter 10: Emerging Growth (II) Indonesia Mexico Turkey Potential Emerging Economies Egypt Nigeria Chapter 11: Stages of Growth, Waves of Democracies The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly Prosperity and Democracy Early Democratization Postwar Democratization Growth and Emerging Democracies Market Growth Quest for the Consent of the Governed Chapter 12: Unipolar Dollar, Multipolar Trade and Investment Early Globalization and Colonialism The Golden Age: The Postwar Advanced Economies The Golden Age: The Post-1980 Emerging World Multipolar World, Unipolar Currency Growth and Appreciation Multipolar Trade and Investment Chapter 13: The Great Handoff: From the United States to China A Short History of U.S.--Chinese Relations The Sino-U.S. Rapprochement Economic Issues Strategic Issues From Unipolarity to Multipolarity Chapter 14: Emerging Asia: Prosperity or Cold War Emerging Asia: Shifting Center of Economic Gravity Asia's Strategic Gravity From U.S. Unipolarity to Rebalancing in Asia Why Containment Multipolar Approach to War and Peace Chapter 15: The Clash of Polarities Toward Global Governance Toward Multipolar Consensus Alternative Kuznets Curve Inequality of Class, Inequality of Location Income Divergence The Rich-Poor Country Problem Appendix: On the Method Differences with Conventional Growth Accounts Revised Stages of Growth Multipolar Growth Poles About the Author Index