Rivalry without War

Drawing on lessons from the Cold War, how can the United States manage its superpower rivalries without going to war?

The broad consensus among most observers of world affairs is that a new Cold War 2.0 has now begun.What form and character this new era of major power competition will take is still a matter of debate but few if any expect that relations between the major powers-primarily between the United States on the one hand and China and Russia on the other-will be anything less than highly contentious and potentially very dangerous at times. The die has seemingly been cast for another prolonged period of great power competition and confrontation with all the costs and risks that attend rivalries of this kind. If history is any guide, this era could last many decades-most strategic rivalries do-and end in war-again as they have often done so in the past.

But just as the Cold War was not inevitable, neither do today's global tensions have to lead to a continual threat of war. The imperatives to avoid prolonged confrontation between the major powers are arguably greater today than at the Cold War's outset. Besides the need to avoid a catastrophic nuclear war and the opportunity costs of a wasteful arms race, other challenges threaten humanity-some of them existential in nature--which require effective and collective international action. This is unlikely to be forthcoming without broad agreement among the major powers.

The opportunity to forge a different, less dangerous and mutually beneficial relationship between the United States and its principal rivals will likely arise at some point in the future just as it did during the Cold War. The lesson from the past is that the United States would be wise to be prepared for just such moments. This requires not just a willingness to be open to the possibility of an alternative future, but also having a coherent vision and associated game plan for what a safer and more stable relationship among the major powers might look like.

This book is intended to help the United States do just that.