Migration Patterns between Germany and Turkey

Aim of this dissertation is to analyse and model migration flows from Turkey towards Germany between 1991 and 2015. Following a brief history of bilateral migratory flows, a review of theories of international migration and a literature review of agent-based migration models, a new agent-based model is built to simulate the flows between Turkey and Germany. Time periods are selected according to the major events affecting migration, such as economic shocks, political developments and introduction of restrictive policies. Agent based modelling is chosen for being a practical analytical method for representing the evolution of structures at the macro level from micro-level decisions. The model has a unifying approach and attempts to combine propositions of different migration theories. Based upon the migration history between Turkey and Europe, it is assumed that migration flows are initiated through governmental or institutional actions, e.g. labour recruitment activities of governments or employers. Once migration has started, it is sustained through migrant networks and by continuing demand for labour in receiving countries. Agents in the model decide on migration according to (the existence of) family and migrant stock at destination, employment probabilities at destination, effectual immigration policies and political stability at the source country. Overall, the model is capable of reproducing the migration flows in the reference pattern.