Models, Methods, And Progress In World Politics

Part 1 Traditional policy analysis and prescription: the error term and accident in nuclear war; armaments, security and prosperity - an imaginary congressional speech; arms control negotiations and the Third World; negotiation by proxy - a proposal; negotiations, initiatives and arms reduction. Part 2 Beyond policy prescription: conflict research, political action, and epistemology; social science and social problems; campaign for a US peace academy; a Manhattan project for war prevention. Part 3 The research outlook and options: the incomplete theorist - insight without evidence; variables, indicators and data - the measurement problem in macropolitical research; militarized interstate crises - the BCOW typology and its applications, Russell J.Leng and J.David Singer; cumulativeness in the social sciences - some counterprescriptions. Part 4 the research programme and some results: periodicity, inexorability and steersmanship in international war, J.David Singer and Thomas Cusack; system structure, decision processes and the incidence of international war; alliance aggregation and the onset of war, J.David Singer and Melvin Small; capabilities, allocations and success in militarized disputes and wars 1816-1976, Frank W.Wayman, J.David Singer and Gary Goertz. Part 5 Implications and recapitulation: research, policy and the correlates of war; the responsibilities of competence in the global village.