The Pessimistic Induction
The Historical Challenge to Scientific Knowledge
Will be published approx. on 31. October 2026
Book
Paperback/Softback
280 pages
978-1-009-84122-1 (ISBN)
Description
'All past beliefs about nature have sooner or later turned out to be false. On the record, therefore, the probability that any currently proposed belief will fare better must be close to zero.' So wrote the historian and philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn. A substantial number of contemporary philosophers agree with that pessimistic induction from the history of science. If true, the implications of that inductive argument are profound, suggesting that current so-called scientific knowledge is not what it purports to be - namely, an enduring understanding of our world. The Pessimistic Induction expressed in Kuhn's remark has been extensively discussed in the philosophy of science but heretofore without a synoptic critical examination. Drawing on both the history and the philosophy of science, this book presents a detailed exploration of the Pessimistic Induction and defends an optimistic, yet not necessarily realist, view of an important class of current scientific knowledge claims.
Reviews / Votes
'Shanahan's large-scale investigation of the Pessimistic Induction over the history of science presents a well-organized view of the last several decades' worth of writing on this topic and advances the discussion on several fronts. It covers exactly the right set of topics, given the current state of the debates about the Pessimistic Induction; it includes everything you need, and nothing you don't. For people new to the topic, it provides an excellent orientation to a sprawling field. For old hands, it offers a synoptic and cohesive fresh perspective on multiple frontiers of the debates about the Pessimistic Induction.' Greg Frost-Arnold, Hobart and William Smith CollegesMore details
Language
English
Place of publication
Cambridge
United Kingdom
Product notice
Paperback (trade)
Illustrations
Worked examples or Exercises
ISBN-13
978-1-009-84122-1 (9781009841221)
Copyright in bibliographic data is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or its licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions
Book
approx. 10/2026
Cambridge University Press
€155.50
Not yet published
Person
Timothy Shanahan is Distinguished Professor of Philosophy at Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles. He is the author or editor of six previous books and numerous scholarly articles and book chapters in philosophy, science, and film studies.
Content
1. Introduction: the pessimistic induction; 2. What sorts of scientific claims are threatened by the PI?; 3. What, exactly, is 'the pessimistic induction'?; 4. Are dethroned theories completely discarded?; 5. Is the history of science a graveyard of dethroned theories?; 6. Does the pessimistic induction commit a fallacy?; 7. Is contemporary science fundamentally different?; 8. What's new in the 'new induction'?; 9. Are some scientific knowledge claims 'future-proof'?; 10. What can an induction on the history of science teach us?; References; Index.