
Profiting from Uncertainty
Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings
Free Press
Published on 20. January 2003
Book
Hardback
288 pages
978-0-7432-2328-7 (ISBN)
Description
In an environment of increasing technological and global instability, the risks of ignoring uncertainty are greater than ever. But so are the rewards of actively addressing it. Traditionally, managers have viewed uncertainty as an obstacle interfering with the company's existing plans. PROFITING FROM UNCERTAINTY shows the opposite to be true, that the unknown creates opportunity and that scenario based planning, options thinking and other approaches can actually be used to profit from the ambiguity. Dr. Paul Schoemaker, a worldwide authority on strategic decision making, goes beyond other gurus who simply project how the future might unfold to take a comprehensive approach that moves from external scenarios to key success factors to real options to implementation. Drawing on his work with companies in such diverse fields as biotechnology, financial services, utilities and online travel, Schoemaker shows how to 1) develop and analyse multiple industry scenarios, 2) craft nimble strategies, 3) implement them using an options approach and 4) make real time adjustments through dynamic monitoring.
Reviews / Votes
"Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading-edge practitioners and academic researchers. This extraordinary book offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times." -- Hugh Courtney, Ph.D. McKinsey consultant and author of 20/20 Foresight "The title says it all...Schoemaker guides us through the uncertainties and anxieties that confound business post-dotcom/post-September 11/post-Enron/post-economic downturn. He shows how businesspeople can create scenarios that will make them prepared and how the prepared can exploit the opportunities inherent in an uncertain world." -- Professor Marvin Zonis, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago "This is the strategic equivalent of a good liberal arts education. It teaches you a broad-based approach that will keep you from being surprised by change." -- Alberto Ibargueen Publisher, The Miami Herald "Paul Schoemaker describes a strategic process that will better prepare organizations for the future. This book is an invaluable guide for managers in both the public and private sectors." -- Henry Hatch, 47th Chief of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and Commanding GeneralMore details
Language
English
Place of publication
London
United Kingdom
Publishing group
Simon & Schuster Ltd
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Illustrations
25 half-page line drawings; 50 tables & graphs t-o
Dimensions
Height: 235 mm
Width: 156 mm
Thickness: 25 mm
Weight
474 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-7432-2328-7 (9780743223287)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Persons
Formerly a strategic planner with Royal Dutch/Shell's scenario planning group in London, is the Chairman and CEO of Decision Strategies International, Inc. He is also Research Director of the Mack Center for Technological Innovation at the Wharton School where he teaches strategy and decision making.
Content
Contents
Preface: Tumultuous Times
Chapter 1
Embracing Uncertainty
Chapter 2
Preparing the Mind
Chapter 3
Experiencing Multiple Futures
Chapter 4
Preparing for the Unknown
Chapter 5
Building a Robust Strategic Vision
Chapter 6
Creating Flexible Options
Chapter 7
Dynamic Monitoring and Adjustment
Chapter 8
Implementation: Living with Uncertainty
Chapter 9
Case Study: Flying through Turbulence
Conclusion
Navigating the Future
Appendix A: The Psychology of Uncertainty
Appendix B: Uncertainty Tool Kit
Notes
Index
Preface: Tumultuous Times
Chapter 1
Embracing Uncertainty
Chapter 2
Preparing the Mind
Chapter 3
Experiencing Multiple Futures
Chapter 4
Preparing for the Unknown
Chapter 5
Building a Robust Strategic Vision
Chapter 6
Creating Flexible Options
Chapter 7
Dynamic Monitoring and Adjustment
Chapter 8
Implementation: Living with Uncertainty
Chapter 9
Case Study: Flying through Turbulence
Conclusion
Navigating the Future
Appendix A: The Psychology of Uncertainty
Appendix B: Uncertainty Tool Kit
Notes
Index