The Sweep of Probability

The Sweep of Probability broadly surveys this burgeoning field of philosophical inquiry. The book is unique because it engages the reader in contemporary debates about a variety of issues in probability theory without requiring a background in probability and mathematics. It also illustrates how the concerns of probability relate not only to philosophical inquiry but to aspects of everyday life. The primary aim of this book, claims George N.Schlesinger in the introduction, is to illustrate, by discussing a wide variety of topics, that ""elementary probability belongs to one of those rare intellectual ventures where the returns are disproportionately high to the initial investment of effort."" Schlesinger, who is well acquainted with the current literature, begins by illustrating the uses of a few elementary theorems such as Baye's Theorem and the Rule of Elimination. The volume then discusses philosophical ideas in which such theorems play a considerable role. The book examines the principle of indifference; confirmation; relevance; credibility of witnesses; reliability of symptoms; the logic of moral obligations; randomness and pattern repetition; and the anthropic principle. Accessible to undergraduates, the book will make an appealing introduction to probability and its problems, especially in courses where the instructor wants to present a unit on probability without having to delve into it too deeply or presuppose special background in his or her students.