
Prediction, Projection and Forecasting
Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Economics, Finance, Politics, Games and Sports
Springer (Publisher)
Published on 16. December 2012
Book
Paperback/Softback
XV, 254 pages
978-94-015-7954-4 (ISBN)
Description
We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event. We forecast, a special kind of prediction, on data of past happenings to generate or cast data for future by relying happenings. Generally, one predicts (yes, no) a war, an earthquake or the outcome of a chess match, projects the value of the GNP or of unemployment, and forecasts the weather and, more scientifically, the economic trends. Prediction, projection, and forecasting must be constrained in time and space: when and where. Often the accuracy of a forecast is of interest along with how sensitive the outcome is to changes in the factors involved. Is there a basis for improving the wisdom we need to make correct and useful predictions? We believe there is, and that it can be cultivated by studying the approach given here along with the various examples. To the best of our knowledge, no other work has approached prediction in the scientific framework of hierarchies. Prediction is the synthesis of past and present in an attempt to foretell the future. In our view, creation is not the ultimate phenomenon of the world. Nature creates forms and so do we. The problem is to surmise the eventual purpose, impact, and use of creation. It is the synthesis or outcome of bringing together the results of creation that we need to predict.
Reviews / Votes
' Academics interested in applications of AHP might also find this book an excellent reference. ' European Journal of Operational Research 61 1992More details
Edition
Softcover reprint of the original 1st ed. 1991
Language
English
Place of publication
Dordrecht
Netherlands
Target group
Professional and scholarly
Research
Illustrations
2 s/w Abbildungen
XV, 254 p. 2 illus.
Dimensions
Height: 235 mm
Width: 155 mm
Thickness: 16 mm
Weight
423 gr
ISBN-13
978-94-015-7954-4 (9789401579544)
DOI
10.1007/978-94-015-7952-0
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Additional editions

Thomas Lorie Saaty | Luis G. Vargas
Prediction, Projection and Forecasting
Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process in Politics, Economics and Finance
Book
11/1990
Kluwer Academic Publishers
€89.13
Article exhausted; check different version
Persons
Thomas L. Saaty (1926 - 2017) was a Distinguished University Professor at the University of Pittsburgh (USA), where he taught in the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business. Prior to coming to the University of Pittsburgh, Saaty was a professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania (USA) for 10 years. Before that he was working at the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency at the U.S. State Department. He was the architect of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and its generalization to complex decisions with dependence and feedback, the Analytic Network Process (ANP).
Luis G. Vargas is a Professor of Business Analytics and Operations at the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business of the University of Pittsburgh (USA). His research focuses on decision theory, practical applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), artificial intelligence in manufacturing, the use of artificial intelligence techniques for scheduling, measurement of resource utilization, group decision making, Bayesian networks, and forecasting.
H. J. Zoffer served as dean of the Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business of the University of Pittsburgh (USA) from 1968 to 1996, following a career in teaching and university administration. He is the author of a number of articles and books on such subjects as individual and group decision-making under risk, the social responsibility of business, continuing education for managers, business ethics, corporate risk analysis, accounting education, and improving institutional credibility.
Amos Guiora is Professor of Law at the S.J. Quinney College of Law, University of Utah. He teaches Criminal Procedure, International Law, Global Perspectives on Counterterrorism and Religion and Terrorism, incorporating innovative scenario-based instruction to address national and international security issues and dilemmas. He has publishedextensively on issues related to national security, limits of interrogation, religion and terrorism, the limits of power, multiculturalism and human rights. His latest book: The Crime of Complicity: The Bystander in the Holocaust, directly contributed to legislation ratified by the Utah Legislature in 2021 that criminalizes bystanders who do not intervene on behalf of children and vulnerable adults. The legislation, introduced by Rep. Brian King and sponsored by Sen. Kurt Bramble, enjoyed overwhelming bipartisan support.
Content
1 Knowing the Future.- 2 The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Planning and Risk.- 3 The Most Livable Cities and Employee Salary Raises.- 4 The Stock Market.- 5 Modeling Behavior in Competition: Chess.- 6 Family Size in Rural India.- 7 Political Candidacy and the Presidential Election.- 8 Oil Prices.- 9 Forecasting Foreign Exchange Rates: An Expert Judgment Approach.- 10 Games and Sports.- 11 Planning the Future of the Social Security System in the United States: An Example in Control.- 12 A New Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Evaluation Method: Another Example in Control.- Author Index.