Expectations Investing

About 75 percent of active investors consistently deliver returns below those of passive index funds. Why? In part, it's because proven methods for valuing assets are too complex to apply-causing investors to rely on commonly used benchmarks such as current earnings and price-earnings multiples that simply don't reflect how the market prices stocks. Now, leading valuation experts Alfred Rappaport and Michael J. Mauboussin argue that the secret to beating the market stands in plain sight. Embedded in the stock price-the most accessible piece of information in the investment arena-lies all investors need to know about how the market expects a company to perform. By correctly decoding that information, say the authors, investors are on the way to anticipating changes in a company's competitive position that the current stock price doesn't reflect-and making informed buy, hold, or sell decisions before the rest of the crowd. This proven approach, expectations investing, holds the potential to change the rules and improve the odds of the stock selection game forever.
The beauty of expectations investing is that it harnesses the power of the market's own tried-and-true pricing model-discounted cash flow-without requiring difficult and often dubious long-term forecasting. Highly practical, the book provides a strategic framework and corresponding tools for using price-implied expectations (PIE) to: Interpret current prices and anticipate revisions in expectations; Monitor signals from managerial actions such as mergers and acquisitions and share buybacks and estimate their impact on shareholder value; and, Devise, adjust, and communicate management strategy in light of shareholder expectations. In addition, a unique expectations infrastructure helps track value creation from the initial triggers that shape performance to the resulting impact on sales, operating profit margins, and investment efficiency. Universally applicable to public companies across the economic landscape, "Expectations Investing" will enable professional investors, analysts, and executives to translate heightened uncertainty into lucrative opportunity.
Alfred Rappaport is the Leonard Spacek Professor Emeritus at Northwestern's Kellogg School and is Shareholder Value Adviser to L.E.K. Consulting. He originated the Shareholder Scoreboard for "The Wall Street Journal". Michael J. Mauboussin is a Managing Director and Chief U.S. Investment Strategist at Credit Suisse First Boston. He is also an Adjunct Professor at Columbia Business School. Visit the book's dedicated Web site at: our associated website.