Models of Noncommunicable Diseases

This report on two recent workshops held under the auspices
of the World Health Organization deals with models of non-
communicable diseases to be applied in the area of health
policy which is to aim at the reduction of incidence and
prevalence of noncommunicable diseases and the resulting
disability and mortality. This applies to the community,
national and international level.
The methods described as well as topics and examples stated
here enable the reader to understand the particular problems
of noncommunicable disease development during forcasting
periods needed for prevention and control programmes. In
thiscontext disease development is characterized by a) slow
development of risk factors in the course of time; b) multi-
factorial interactions of several risk factors.
Several papers also deal with the relationship between
disease development and the appropriate health services in
termsof the allocation of resources and cost-effectiveness
of alternative technologies. Most reports include a wide
range of data from epidemiologicaland clinical studies in
order to illustrate the way in which these models use
available data to support health policy decisions. The
papers emphasis the relationship between appropriate and
reliable data and the development of biologically realistic
models which comprise the essential elements of noncommuni-
cable disease development.
The reader will be made aware of the use of such models by
health managers and planners and of the need of incorporat-
ing them in training curricula for epidemiologists and
health planners.