Measuring and Modeling Sustainable Development

This is a graduate-level reference documenting the results of two years of research into sustainable development in Scotland, supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Global Environmental Change Programme (GEC). Written for a broad audience of scientists, students, and environmentalists, it reflects the growing recognition that current patterns of economic and social development are not sustainable, and that if science is to offer ways of living within the constraints of our ecological systems, alternative paths of ecologically sound economic development must be found. Beginning with simple definitions and principles of sustainable development, it then covers the historical context of Scotland, from the Highland clearances to the present oil-rich days. It continues with examples of measuring sustainable development, environmental indicators, economic and sociopolitical measures in other countries. This is followed by a time series analysis for Scotland, outlining the natural limits to development, the theory of sustainable corridors, and alternative approaches. The authors explain the mathematics of systems dynamics and economic modelling of sustainable development policies. The work concludes with the forward-looking chapter, "Towards sustainable societies."