Mathematics and Statistics for Financial Risk Management

Preface ix What's New in the Second Edition xi Acknowledgments xiii Chapter 1 Some Basic Math 1 Logarithms 1 Log Returns 2 Compounding 3 Limited Liability 4 Graphing Log Returns 5 Continuously Compounded Returns 6 Combinatorics 8 Discount Factors 9 Geometric Series 9 Problems 14 Chapter 2 Probabilities 15 Discrete Random Variables 15 Continuous Random Variables 15 Mutually Exclusive Events 21 Independent Events 22 Probability Matrices 22 Conditional Probability 24 Problems 26 Chapter 3 Basic Statistics 29 Averages 29 Expectations 34 Variance and Standard Deviation 39 Standardized Variables 41 Covariance 42 Correlation 43 Application: Portfolio Variance and Hedging 44 Moments 47 Skewness 48 Kurtosis 51 Coskewness and Cokurtosis 53 Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) 57 Problems 58 Chapter 4 Distributions 61 Parametric Distributions 61 Uniform Distribution 61 Bernoulli Distribution 63 Binomial Distribution 65 Poisson Distribution 68 Normal Distribution 69 Lognormal Distribution 72 Central Limit Theorem 73 Application: Monte Carlo Simulations Part I: Creating Normal Random Variables 76 Chi-Squared Distribution 77 Student's t Distribution 78 F-Distribution 79 Triangular Distribution 81 Beta Distribution 82 Mixture Distributions 83 Problems 86 Chapter 5 Multivariate Distributions and Copulas 89 Multivariate Distributions 89 Copulas 97 Problems 111 Chapter 6 Bayesian Analysis 113 Overview 113 Bayes' Theorem 113 Bayes versus Frequentists 119 Many-State Problems 120 Continuous Distributions 124 Bayesian Networks 128 Bayesian Networks versus Correlation Matrices 130 Problems 132 Chapter 7 Hypothesis Testing and Confidence Intervals 135 Sample Mean Revisited 135 Sample Variance Revisited 137 Confidence Intervals 137 Hypothesis Testing 139 Chebyshev's Inequality 142 Application: VaR 142 Problems 152 Chapter 8 Matrix Algebra 155 Matrix Notation 155 Matrix Operations 156 Application: Transition Matrices 163 Application: Monte Carlo Simulations Part II: Cholesky Decomposition 165 Problems 168 Chapter 9 Vector Spaces 169 Vectors Revisited 169 Orthogonality 172 Rotation 177 Principal Component Analysis 181 Application: The Dynamic Term Structure of Interest Rates 185 Application: The Structure of Global Equity Markets 191 Problems 193 Chapter 10 Linear Regression Analysis 195 Linear Regression (One Regressor) 195 Linear Regression (Multivariate) 203 Application: Factor Analysis 208 Application: Stress Testing 211 Problems 212 Chapter 11 Time Series Models 215 Random Walks 215 Drift-Diffusion Model 216 Autoregression 217 Variance and Autocorrelation 222 Stationarity 223 Moving Average 227 Continuous Models 228 Application: GARCH 230 Application: Jump-Diffusion Model 232 Application: Interest Rate Models 232 Problems 234 Chapter 12 Decay Factors 237 Mean 237 Variance 243 Weighted Least Squares 244 Other Possibilities 245 Application: Hybrid VaR 245 Problems 247 Appendix A Binary Numbers 249 Appendix B Taylor Expansions 251 Appendix C Vector Spaces 253 Appendix D Greek Alphabet 255 Appendix E Common Abbreviations 257 Appendix F Copulas 259 Answers 263 References 303 About the Author 305 About the Companion Website 307 Index 309