Projecting Environmental Trends from Economic Forecasts

Part 1 Forecasting for sustainability: projecting the shadow of humanity on the environment of the Earth; the why and how of forecasting alternative futures; is there a tradeoff between economy and the environment?; economic development paths and their ecological impacts; our project - forecasting Kentucky's environmental futures. Part 2 Process overview and rationale: the policy context - opportunities and constraints; task definition - opportunities and constraints; identifying key areas of concern; data scanning; project modelling elements; establishing the economy-environment links; identifying the politically and technologically possible alternative development paths. Part 3 Scanning context and setting priorities: Kentucky - a brief socioeconomic sketch; the state of the environment in Kentucky; the policy context; setting priorities - the initial issue scanning survey. Part 4 Social research for forecasting - nomial group techniques in scenario building: scenario forecasting; the nominal group technique; identification of significant environmental issues; developing scenarios - social, economic and environmental narratives; summary of findings. Part 5 Environmental impact modelling from scenario projections: forecasting economic conditions and activities; the Kentucky regions analyzed - definitions and utility; baseline and restructured projections - imagining a different mix of economic activities; POLESTAR scenarios - technology, policy and behaviour change and the environment. Part 6 Comparing the effects of economic activity, technologies and practices on environmental impacts: the baseline economy projection - can past trends continue?; adjusting for probable and possible change; the environmental consequences of economic restructuring; the range of change - baseline status quo versus restructured combined change; finding implications for current policy - sources of challenge, sources of hope. Part 7 Forecasting for sustainability - conclusions, findings and potential: forecasting for sustainability; forecasting Kentucky's environmental futures - a summary; environmental research for the policy process - context and credibility; issues in measurement and valuation; prospects - the potential contribution of environmental forecasts. Appendices: current trends in Kentucky; major sources for assumptions about possible changes; sources of Kentucky data.