Sales Forecasting Management
A Demand Management Approach
2nd Edition
Published on 8. February 2005
Book
Paperback/Softback
368 pages
978-1-4129-0571-8 (ISBN)
Description
Incorporating 25 years of sales forecasting management research with more than 400 companies, Sales Forecasting Management, Second Edition is the first text to truly integrate the theory and practice of sales forecasting management. This research includes the personal experiences of John T. Mentzer and Mark A. Moon in advising companies how to improve their sales forecasting management practices. Their program of research includes two major surveys of companies' sales forecasting practices, a two-year, in-depth study of sales forecasting management practices of 20 major companies, and an ongoing study of how to apply the findings from the two-year study to conducting sales forecasting audits of additional companies. The book provides comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sales forecasting analysis, combined with a managerial focus to give managers and users of the sales forecasting function a clear understanding of the forecasting needs of all business functions.
New to This Edition:
The author's well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors' Web site
New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented
The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added
The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced
Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition.
Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.
New to This Edition:
The author's well-regarded Multicaster software system demo, previously available on cassette, has been updated and is now available for download from the authors' Web site
New insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting are presented
The results of additional surveys done since the publication of the first edition have been added
The discussion of the four dimensions of forecasting management has been significantly enhanced
Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition.
Sales Forecasting Management is an ideal text for graduate courses in sales forecasting management. Practitioners in marketing, sales, finance/accounting, production/purchasing, and logistics will also find this easy-to-understand volume essential.
Reviews / Votes
"The authors have shared their valuable experiences and knowledge gained over the years while working with companies on sales forecasting. The book comprises of ten chapters in total and provides good coverage. The book well describes the issues, developments and required understanding about sales forecasting practices with illustrations and required possible information through appendixes and notes at the end of chapters where needed." -- Anita Goyal * The Journal of Business Perspective * "The book integrates the theory and practice of sales forecasting management by providing comprehensive coverage of the techniques and applications of sale forecasting analysis. The second edition of the book provides new insights on the critical area of qualitative forecasting. Significant reorganization and updating has been done to strengthen and improve the material for the second edition. It will be very useful for academics as well as business executives who will find much of value and insight from the book." -- B. D. Pande * Personnel Today *More details
Edition
2nd Revised edition
Language
English
Place of publication
Thousand Oaks
United States
Target group
College/higher education
Edition type
Revised edition
Dimensions
Height: 229 mm
Width: 152 mm
Thickness: 20 mm
Weight
533 gr
ISBN-13
978-1-4129-0571-8 (9781412905718)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
Other editions
Previous edition
John T. Mentzer | Carol Bienstock
Sales Forecasting Management
Understanding the Techniques, Systems and Management of the Sales Forecasting Process
Book
03/1998
1st Edition
SAGE Publications Inc
€105.42
Article exhausted; check for reprint
Persons
Dr. John T. (Tom) Mentzer is the Harry J. and Vivienne R. Bruce Chair of Excellence in Business in the Department of Marketing, Logistics and Transportation at the University of Tennessee. He has written more than 170 papers and articles, which have appeared in the Journal of Marketing, Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, the Journal of MacroMarketing, Industrial Marketing Management, the Journal of Marketing Education, the Columbia Journal of World Business, Research in Marketing, Social Indicators Research, the International Journal of Physical Distribution and Materials Management, the Journal of Business Logistics, the Logistics and Transportation Review, Transportation Journal, the Journal of Business Research, Advances in Business Research, the Journal of Forecasting, the Journal of Business Forecasting, and numerous conference proceedings. He has co-authored five books: SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT, SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT, SIMULATED PRODUCT SALES FORECASTING, MARKETING TODAY, and READINGS IN MARKETING TODAY and edited the monograph MARKETING EDUCATION SOFTWARE. Dr. Mentzer was recognized in 1996 as one of the five most prolific authors in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and in 1999 as the most prolific author in the Journal of Business Logistics. He was awarded the Academy of Marketing Science Outstanding Marketing Teacher Award in 2001.
Mark Moon is an Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and his MBA and BA degrees from the University of Michigan. Mark's professional experience includes positions in sales and marketing with IBM and Xerox. He has been a member of UT's sales forecasting research team since 1996, and since that time, has published numerous articles on best practices in forecasting. Mark has played a key role in Phase 4 of the Sales Forecasting Benchmarking Studies, and has worked with 23 different companies to audit their forecasting practices.
Mark Moon is an Associate Professor of Marketing at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and his MBA and BA degrees from the University of Michigan. Mark's professional experience includes positions in sales and marketing with IBM and Xerox. He has been a member of UT's sales forecasting research team since 1996, and since that time, has published numerous articles on best practices in forecasting. Mark has played a key role in Phase 4 of the Sales Forecasting Benchmarking Studies, and has worked with 23 different companies to audit their forecasting practices.
Content
PREFACE
1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS
INTRODUCTION
A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS
THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)
WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?
SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS
THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS
SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS
FUNCTIONAL SILOS
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
INTRODUCTION
SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY
SALES FORECOSTING COSTS
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION
CONCLUSIONS
3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
INTRODUCTION
FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY
OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
SUMMARY
4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS
THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING
FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS
MODEL VALIDATION
AN EXAMPLE
CONCLUSION
NOTES
5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
SUMMARY
APPENDIX
6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
INTRODUCTION
THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE
MULTICASTER
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY
APPENDIX
7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS
INTRODUCTION
STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1
PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY
FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2
CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2
8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION
APPROACH
SYSTEMS
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL
9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF AUDITING
MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS
CONCLUSIONS
10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION
THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING
WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE
THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
INDEX
1. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING PROCESS
INTRODUCTION
A DEMAND MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO SALES FORECASTING
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTS VERSUS PLANS VERSUS TARGETS
THE ROLE OF SALES FORECASTING IN SALES AND OPERATIONS PLANNING (S&OP)
WHY IS A SALES FORECAST NEEDED?
SUMMARY: ORGANIZATIONAL SALES FORECASTING NEEDS
THE TOOLS OF SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS
SALES FORECASTING AND PLANNING: AN ITERATIVE PROCESS
FUNCTIONAL SILOS
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
OVERVIEW OF THIS BOOK
2. SALES FORECASTING PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
INTRODUCTION
SALES FORECASTING ACCURACY
SALES FORECOSTING COSTS
CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER--A FORECASTING ROI DECISION
CONCLUSIONS
3. TIMES SERIES FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
INTRODUCTION
FIXED-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
FIXED MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES SUMMARY
OPEN-MODEL TIME SERIES TECHNIQUES
SUMMARY
4. REGRESSION ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION
HOW REGRESSION ANALYSIS WORKS
THE PROCESS OF REGRESSION ANALYSIS FOR FORECASTING
FURTHER EVALUATION OF CANDIDATE MODELS
MODEL VALIDATION
AN EXAMPLE
CONCLUSION
NOTES
5. QUALITATIVE SALES FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
QUALITATIVE FORECASTING: ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
SUMMARY: QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUE ADVANTAGES AND PROBLEMS
QUALITATIVE TECHNIQUES AND TOOLS
MARKET RESEARCH TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
DECISION ANALYSIS TOOLS FOR QUALITATIVE FORECASTING
SUMMARY
APPENDIX
6. SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
INTRODUCTION
THE SALES FORECASTING SYSTEM AS A COMMUNICATION VEHICLE
MULTICASTER
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS: SUMMARY
APPENDIX
7. BENCHMARK STUDIES: THE SURVEYS
INTRODUCTION
STUDIES PRIOR TO PHASE 1
PHASE 2 METHODOLOGY
FINDINGS COMPARING PHASE 1 TO PHASE 2
CONCLUSIONS FROM COMPARING PHASE 1 AND PHASE 2
SALES FORECASTING SYSTEMS
SALES FORECASTING MANAGEMENT
FORECASTING IN CONSUMER VERSUS INDUSTRIAL MARKETS
CONCLUSIONS: INDUSTRIAL VERSUS CONSUMER FORECASTING
CONCLUSIONS FROM PHASE 2
8. BENCHMARK STUDIES: WORLD-CLASS FORECASTING
INTRODUCTION
FUNCTIONAL INTEGRATION
APPROACH
SYSTEMS
PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
CONCLUSIONS
APPENDIX: SALES FORECASTING AUDIT PROTOCOL
9. BENCHMARK STUDIES: CONDUCTING A FORECASTING AUDIT
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF AUDITING
MANAGEMENT RESPONSE TO AUDITS
CONCLUSIONS
10. MANAGING THE SALES FORECASTING FUNCTION
INTRODUCTION
THE ROLE OF THE SALES FORECASTING CHAMPION
THE SEVEN KEYS TO BETTER FORECASTING
WHY THE CEO SHOULD CARE
THE CEO SHOULD CARE AT TELLABS
CONCLUSIONS
REFERENCES
INDEX