
The Science and Management of Uncertainty
Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management
Bruce G. Marcot(Author)
CRC Press
1st Edition
Published on 27. November 2020
Book
Hardback
286 pages
978-0-367-27601-0 (ISBN)
Description
Uncertainty can take many forms, can be represented in many ways, and can have important implications in decision-making and policy development. This book provides a rigorous scientific framework for dealing with uncertainty in real-world situations, and provides a comprehensive study of concepts, measurements, and applications of uncertainty in ecological modeling and natural resource management.
The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches.
Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.
The focus of this book is on the kinds and implications of uncertainty in environmental modeling and management, with practical guidelines and examples for successful modeling and risk analysis in the face of uncertain conditions and incomplete information. Provided is a clear classification of uncertainty; methods for measuring, modeling, and communicating uncertainty; practical guidelines for capturing and representing expert knowledge and judgment; explanations of the role of uncertainty in decision-making; a guideline to avoiding logical fallacies when dealing with uncertainty; and several example cases of real-world ecological modeling and risk analysis to illustrate the concepts and approaches.
Case topics provide examples of structured decision-making, statistical modeling, and related topics. A summary provides practical next steps that the reader can take in analyzing and interpreting uncertainty in real-world situations. Also provided is a glossary and a suite of references.
More details
Language
English
Place of publication
London
United Kingdom
Publishing group
Taylor & Francis Ltd
Target group
College/higher education
Illustrations
40 s/w Abbildungen, 15 s/w Tabellen
15 Tables, black and white; 40 Illustrations, black and white
Dimensions
Height: 240 mm
Width: 161 mm
Thickness: 20 mm
Weight
596 gr
ISBN-13
978-0-367-27601-0 (9780367276010)
Copyright in bibliographic data and cover images is held by Nielsen Book Services Limited or by the publishers or by their respective licensors: all rights reserved.
Schweitzer Classification
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Additional editions

Bruce G. Marcot
The Science and Management of Uncertainty
Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management
Book
11/2020
1st Edition
CRC Press
€166.30
Shipment within 15-20 days

Bruce G. Marcot
The Science and Management of Uncertainty
Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management
E-Book
11/2020
1st Edition
CRC Press
€158.99
Available for download

Bruce G. Marcot
The Science and Management of Uncertainty
Dealing with Doubt in Natural Resource Management
E-Book
11/2020
1st Edition
CRC Press
€158.99
Available for download
Person
Bruce G. Marcot is a Research Wildlife Biologist with the U.S. Forest Service. He received his Ph.D. from Oregon State University in 1984. His expertise is in ecology and conservation of rare and at-risk species, probabilistic modeling, and application of risk analysis and decision science in conservation. His many international studies include impacts of climate change on wildlife biota, movement dynamics of organisms, and causal modeling of environmental stressors.
Content
Preface. What is Uncertainty? Measuring Uncertainty. Modeling Uncertainty. Communicating Uncertainty. Capturing Expert Judgment. Decision-making Under Uncertainty. Fallacies of Logic and Inference. Case Topics. Summary and Conclusions. References. Index.