Electing to Fight

Does the spread of democracy really contribute to international peace?
Successive U. S. administrations have justified various policies intended to promote
democracy not only by arguing that democracy is intrinsically good but by pointing
to a wide range of research concluding that democracies rarely, if ever, go to war
with one another. To promote democracy, the United States has provided economic
assistance, political support, and technical advice to emerging democracies in
Eastern and Central Europe, and it has attempted to remove undemocratic regimes
through political pressure, economic sanctions, and military force. In Electing to
Fight, Edward Mansfield and Jack Snyder challenge the widely accepted basis of these
policies by arguing that states in the early phases of transitions to democracy are
more likely than other states to become involved in war.Drawing on both qualitative
and quantitative analysis, Mansfield and Snyder show that emerging democracies with
weak political institutions are especially likely to go to war. Leaders of these
countries attempt to rally support by invoking external threats and resorting to
belligerent, nationalist rhetoric. Mansfield and Snyder point to this pattern in
cases ranging from revolutionary France to contemporary Russia. Because the risk of
a state's being involved in violent conflict is high until democracy is fully
consolidated, Mansfield and Snyder argue, the best way to promote democracy is to
begin by building the institutions that democracy requires -- such as the rule of
law -- and only then encouraging mass political participation and elections. Readers
will find this argument particularly relevant to prevailing concerns about the
transitional government in Iraq. Electing to Fight also calls into question the
wisdom of urging early elections elsewhere in the Islamic world and in
China.