Time is Money: China's Competitive Strategies in the Lithium Market - Lessons from Rare Earths

The dissertation examines how China has built strategic capabilities in the lithium industry by applying a series of coordinated industrial strategies along the value chain. It identifies a recurring pattern that integrates state planning, market structuring, and timing as key elements in building long-term positions in critical raw material sectors. The roots of this pattern can be traced back to China's earlier development in the rare earth industry, where instruments such as border prices, export quotas, environmental regulations and downstream integration were used to gain systemic influence throughout the global value chain. These instruments not only strengthened domestic capabilities but also influenced international market behaviour and investment decisions. Building on these experiences, China's lithium strategy has evolved, with a greater focus on midstream processing, creating downstream demand and vertical integration. Using models such as the Spence-Dixit model and the increase in competitors' costs, the dissertation analyses how capacity expansion, procurement flexibility and infrastructure control have contributed to China becoming a key player in the global lithium value chain. Rather than viewing these developments as isolated or reactive, the study highlights a strategic mode of industrial engagement - one that aligns investment, policy and technology over time. It contributes to a broader understanding of how industrial strategies can shape global value chains in specific sectors.